Champion Hurdle 2019

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

The great thing about Samcro's opening performance is all the interpretations and debate it generates. Now the dust has settled a bit and reading the opposing arguments it is likley that the performance was not as bad as it first looked. My feeling is though as Archie mentions above is that he is not a natural slick hurdler (don't think he was all last season CoD, not just last week) and his optimum trip is further than 2 miles. That said the sheer natural ability of the horse will mean there is a reasonable chance he will be a leading player in this division.

Looking into my crystal ball, my gut feeling is he'll come back strongly over his next couple of starts and may end up fav again for the CH (such is the hype he will still generate), but will get beaten on the big day, because his sheer class and engine alone will not be good enough to beat a horse that is absolutely primed for jumping hurdles over 2 miles - BVD is one such candidate but there may well be a couple of others by the time the race comes around.

 

[jack1092]

To be fair Rhinestone, your point on his sheer class and engine alone not being enough, might well be a very fair one.

I remember the question marks being raised over Faugheen earlier in his career. Not a typical hurdler, not fluent, could stay 3 miles.

Is Samcro the next Faugheen? Hasn't exactly shown much to suggest he's not other than Friday's run, but there aren't many Faugheens about....so the chances are he won't be.

 

[Folski]

Just saw on twitter Jack is suspended the weekend of Morgiana, assume Davy would get the ride.

 

[Kevloaf]

To be fair Rhinestone, your point on his sheer class and engine alone not being enough, might well be a very fair one.

I remember the question marks being raised over Faugheen earlier in his career. Not a typical hurdler, not fluent, could stay 3 miles.

Is Samcro the next Faugheen? Hasn't exactly shown much to suggest he's not other than Friday's run, but there aren't many Faugheens about....so the chances are he won't be.

I think that's a very fair reflection for right now.

If Samcro emulates Faugheen no one will stand up and say they're shocked, but by the same token, there have been enough horses not live up to the hype that you could always say it's not going to happen.

I can't wait to see him again regardless of which side of the fence I'm on

 

[Scooby91]

It's a real tricky one this race, I won't be backing samcro laurina or melon at all. I'll be looking for something left field summerville boy/ if the cap fits / Kalashnikov not being able to jump a fence. And potentially beat buveur dair on route with a quick double figure price on them ew.

 

[jack1092]

I wouldn't touch anything right now for it. I think Samcro will probably win the Morgiana, i also think that Melon will be beat once or twice on route to the CH and even though i wouldn't put it pas the bookies not to, they should lengthen him at some stage. For me, the CH last year showed how much he benefits from a properly strong pace.
Laurina is part of the Mullin's bingo. Summerville boy was mega impressive in the supreme, but as mentioned plenty on this page, he'd need to jump a heck of a lot better vs Buveur D'Air. He also was probably suited by the softer going last year.

Very unlikely to happen i know, but i would like to see Min stuck back here. He has virtually no chance with Altior.

 

[Kevloaf]

I keep finding it interesting that pundits keep saying it's a "weak" division (The 2 mile hurdlers)

I don't think that's true at all now, all of the horses at this stage are on target (Samcro, Laurina, Summerville Boy plus all of last years player, PLUS perhaps Supasundae). Only Kalashnikov has 'left' this division really so it isn't 'weak'?

As a division, aren't the two mile chasers weaker? We have 1 superstar in Altior, 1 rising star in Footpad, both of which would be odds on in any race they ran in unless they faced eachother!

The Staying Hurdlers - IS that any worse than the 2 mile division? I wouldn't have thought so, they are all within about 3L of each other with no superstars?

The Staying Chasers - Only Presenting Percy coming in to this division with a real chance? It was winnable and open last year?


It may end up being weaker than right now, but I wouldn't like to assume that.

 

[Hurricane fly]

Would agree with you that this year it looks a strong division on the assumption everyone turns up.

Last year however was the weakest championship race for some years I’d say

 

[Scooby91]

I keep finding it interesting that pundits keep saying it's a "weak" division (The 2 mile hurdlers)

I don't think that's true at all now, all of the horses at this stage are on target (Samcro, Laurina, Summerville Boy plus all of last years player, PLUS perhaps Supasundae). Only Kalashnikov has 'left' this division really so it isn't 'weak'?

As a division, aren't the two mile chasers weaker? We have 1 superstar in Altior, 1 rising star in Footpad, both of which would be odds on in any race they ran in unless they faced eachother!

The Staying Hurdlers - IS that any worse than the 2 mile division? I wouldn't have thought so, they are all within about 3L of each other with no superstars?

The Staying Chasers - Only Presenting Percy coming in to this division with a real chance? It was winnable and open last year?


It may end up being weaker than right now, but I wouldn't like to assume that.

Only presenting percy with a real chance?? Crazy talk. Horses progress. Also an extra 2f and likely to be different ground. Alboum photo would have been within a couple of lengths of him in the rsa without tipping up. He then took the big one at fairy house and the 3 mile grade 1 at punchestown ( bar townend having a nightmare) so arguably he's done more than PP. And he's 33/1.
Madness.
People can moan about his jumping but it's improved and he's had another year to Iron it out and plenty of races to come. He's done all this with suspect jumping so surely that shows there's even more improvement left in him.

Terrefort has franked the form of shattered love and she wasn't stopping in the jlt. Monalee is a year older a year wiser. Plenty more you can make a case for.

 

[Quevega]

Only presenting percy with a real chance?? Crazy talk. Horses progress. Also an extra 2f and likely to be different ground. Alboum photo would have been within a couple of lengths of him in the rsa without tipping up. He then took the big one at fairy house and the 3 mile grade 1 at punchestown ( bar townend having a nightmare) so arguably he's done more than PP. And he's 33/1.
Madness.
People can moan about his jumping but it's improved and he's had another year to Iron it out and plenty of races to come. He's done all this with suspect jumping so surely that shows there's even more improvement left in him.

Terrefort has franked the form of shattered love and she wasn't stopping in the jlt. Monalee is a year older a year wiser. Plenty more you can make a case for.

still trying to get presenting percy beat I see
I'm a convert

 

[Scooby91]

still trying to get presenting percy beat I see
I'm a convert

I'm not going to have a full cry but compare his price to Alboum photos. Watch back the rsa then watch back all Alboum photos runs and see how he finishes. Keeps me awake at night. :highly_amused:

 

[Quevega]

Yep, I see where you come from no doubt.
But there's something about watching Presenting Percy coming up the hill, both times he's been that seem to surpass anything else.

And I like the yard being quiet (no press) as well, compared to say the Coneygree 'lot' who annoy me no end.

 

[Scooby91]

Yep, I see where you come from no doubt.
But there's something about watching Presenting Percy coming up the hill, both times he's been that seem to surpass anything else.

And I like the yard being quiet (no press) as well, compared to say the Coneygree 'lot' who annoy me no end.

If anyone's got time watch the rsa back. I'm either crazy or Alboum photos not beaten I genuinely think it could have been 2 lengths either way. Ruby has quiet hands he's not asked for much at all he switched him up right towards the stands side was waiting to jump it and then go for him at the back of the fence. he then fell. He'd asked for nothing prior imo and was waiting, he finds plenty of the bridle in all his other races.

 

[Quevega]

If anyone's got time watch the rsa back. I'm either crazy or Alboum photos not beaten I genuinely think it could have been 2 lengths either way. Ruby has quiet hands he's not asked for much at all he switched him up right towards the stands side was waiting to jump it and then go for him at the back of the fence. he then fell. He'd asked for nothing prior imo and was waiting, he finds plenty of the bridle in all his other races.

Don't get me wrong, at the prices he is probably value, even taking into account his jumping vs PP & the older horses.

I'm pretty sure he would have won at punchestown, although Monalee was going well before he fell and some armadillo's stood near me in punchestown were convinced that Finians was coming to win that race (and it was all a conspiracy ???) Cost me approx £1500 in placepot as well so I was in shock.

But FFS don't do a 'New One'

 

[Kevloaf]

Yeah alright, the staying chase division is deeper.... I was just making a point about getting annoyed by Champion Hurdle 'rubbbishing'...

Plenty of time to chat about PP

And you know I'm also a big ABP fan.:highly_amused:



My point is... the Champion Hurdle is not "there for the taking" or a "weak division" at the moment

 

[jono]

I think a lot of pundits will use the current champion as the main way to weigh up the strength of a division (alongside obviously taking into consideration the opposition)
Buveur D'Air really doesn't get much love at all, hence how it is looked down on as a whole or certainly more than it should be.

 

[jack1092]

Just read Rubys column in RUK- could be bull, but he states, owner is keen for Laurina to go down CH route... This will be interesting to watch over the season, i know Ricci has said things like this in the past, but a new owner, will he be less open to persuasion from WPM + Ruby?

 

[Scooby91]

Just read Rubys column in RUK- could be bull, but he states, owner is keen for Laurina to go down CH route... This will be interesting to watch over the season, i know Ricci has said things like this in the past, but a new owner, will he be less open to persuasion from WPM + Ruby?

He'd be extremely keen to go down the CH route. You've also got to bear in mind how difficult it must have been to watch the horse he had to sell due to a disagreement between friends go and mop up the last 2 champion hurdles. How much satisfaction hed get from beating buveur dair would be unreal. But it dosent mean the fairy tale will work out. I wish him all the best but laurina has done nothing yet. She should be easily around 20/1.

 

[archie]

OR
160 Samcro
152 Laurina

Best RPR
161 Samcro
154 Laurina

With the mares' allowance, Laurina should be about the same price as Samcro.

 

[jack1092]

I was about to say something similar Archie!

Perhaps you could argue though, in a mares race, regardless of times etc. She was probably running completely in her comfort zone, untested etc. They can come unstuck when properly tested....

If they do end up going down the CH route, with the 7pds, it will be mighty interesting.