Arkle 2019

[Kevloaf]

I see there has been the main focus on the Supreme/Ballymore runners, but does anyone feel we are missing a trick ignoring the Triumph horses?

In short, no - not missing a trick at all - it jsut isn't a relevant race/division for the following years novice chasers.

2010 - No 5 year olds
2011 - No 5 year olds
2012 - No 5 year olds
2013 - 1x 5 year old - His Excellency (D.Pipe) - was 8th in the Triumph at 100/1 the year before and came 3rd to Simonsig at 80/1
2014 - No 5 year olds
2015 - 1x 5 Year Old - Clarcam - Fell in the Fred Winter the year before 8th in the Arkle
2016 - No 5 year olds
2017 - No 5 year olds
2018 - 1x 5 year old - Saint Calvados - "famously" out of the places this year but didn't race as a juvenile in the UK.

Wouldn't spend any time on it this year CoD... I remember Hobbs saying Defi Du Seuil could be an Arkle horse after he ran although that changed fairly quickly beofre he ultimately didn't make the step up the next year anyway.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

In short, no - not missing a trick at all - it jsut isn't a relevant race/division for the following years novice chasers.

2010 - No 5 year olds
2011 - No 5 year olds
2012 - No 5 year olds
2013 - 1x 5 year old - His Excellency (D.Pipe) - was 8th in the Triumph at 100/1 the year before and came 3rd to Simonsig at 80/1
2014 - No 5 year olds
2015 - 1x 5 Year Old - Clarcam - Fell in the Fred Winter the year before 8th in the Arkle
2016 - No 5 year olds
2017 - No 5 year olds
2018 - 1x 5 year old - Saint Calvados - "famously" out of the places this year but didn't race as a juvenile in the UK.

Wouldn't spend any time on it this year CoD... I remember Hobbs saying Defi Du Seuil could be an Arkle horse after he ran although that changed fairly quickly beofre he ultimately didn't make the step up the next year anyway.

I did a brief history search and can see that indeed it is not a race to back a 5 year old so can see why the Triumph can be disregarded. That said, some interesting ones for the following season

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Triumph - stamina sapping 2m 1f race on stiff New Course for 4yo
Arkle - quickets novice chase on calendar over 2m on far easier Old Course

I came to the conclusion many years ago that any horse that runs well in the Triumph will never have the speed to win over the minimum trip, they are far more likely to show well in the Stayers than the Champion, and if they go chasing more chance they go onto become Gold Cup than Champion chase horses...

 

[Innoko]

Footpad the exception here, but he was a year older I suppose.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Thanks guys, I think I have seen the light, no more wasted time on the Triumph horses for this race.

 

[Kevloaf]

I did a brief history search and can see that indeed it is not a race to back a 5 year old so can see why the Triumph can be disregarded. That said, some interesting ones for the following season

Yeah certainly interesting but I am quite negative on all the 4yo's the next season. I've seen too many not make the jump up in required grade even in my short ten-ish years that I've gone lukewarm on them all.

I tend to overrate bumper horses too in general. Not that it matters in the Arkle thread!



ALways good to look for new angles though CoD - even if you test a theory and prove its wrong, its not wasted

 

[Hurricane fly]

Footpad the exception here, but he was a year older I suppose.

Our Conor to
But I wouldn’t touch triumph horse with a 10 foot pole the year after

 

[Kevloaf]

Does seem like Defi Du Seuil is going novice chasing this year.

 

[Hurricane fly]

Big difference between his and Footpads second season over hurdles.

Won’t be a play for me unless I see him beat something with a pulse

 

[Kevloaf]

Big difference between his and Footpads second season over hurdles.

Won’t be a play for me unless I see him beat something with a pulse

Not that I am backing Defi (was merely pointing out that is the plan for him).... but Footpad didn't exactly have a good season. 5 runs, 0 wins. 43L+ defeats. A VERY flattering 2nd in a 4 horse race (where one horse fell) behind Petit Mouchoir too.

I wouldn't compare Footpad to anything really.... Defi only ran twice, he made his comeback and was rubbish behind Lil Rockerfeller and then flopped again in Feb and they pulled up stumps.

I completely agree DDS needs to actually show something, but Footpad being the bench mark is pretty harsh on any horse

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Not that I am backing Defi (was merely pointing out that is the plan for him).... but Footpad didn't exactly have a good season. 5 runs, 0 wins. 43L+ defeats. A VERY flattering 2nd in a 4 horse race (where one horse fell) behind Petit Mouchoir too.

I wouldn't compare Footpad to anything really.... Defi only ran twice, he made his comeback and was rubbish behind Lil Rockerfeller and then flopped again in Feb and they pulled up stumps.

I completely agree DDS needs to actually show something, but Footpad being the bench mark is pretty harsh on any horse

I think it was Scooby who pointed out how much Footpad had grown for going over fences, probably by design, and that he was a shell of a horse over hurdles, DDS was built for his early years hurdling career, albeit he could be a good chaser still, you'd say we saw the best of him as a 4 year old.

He done a lot of racing as a 4 year old which suggests to me he was a fast growing horse, he was strong, they had no issues with him needing time, he was basically more developed than other 4 year olds, and stuck to the juvenile scene to mop up. Now going in to open age groups he seems to have been 'found out'. No doubt he could still make a good chaser, but I don't think he will be one of the top players.

 

[Scooby91]

I think it was Scooby who pointed out how much Footpad had grown for going over fences, probably by design, and that he was a shell of a horse over hurdles, DDS was built for his early years hurdling career, albeit he could be a good chaser still, you'd say we saw the best of him as a 4 year old.

He done a lot of racing as a 4 year old which suggests to me he was a fast growing horse, he was strong, they had no issues with him needing time, he was basically more developed than other 4 year olds, and stuck to the juvenile scene to mop up. Now going in to open age groups he seems to have been 'found out'. No doubt he could still make a good chaser, but I don't think he will be one of the top players.

Yeh i liked footpads run at auteuil beating device over the French fixed brush hurdles, id agree deffi has been found Out, more in the mould of peace and co,

 

[Kevloaf]

I don't even like Defi Du Seuil - anyone on the forum from that his juvenile would remember I thought he was over rated all season - I don't know how I've ended up on this side of the arguement that seems to be defending him because I don't fancy him for the Arkle either - I was just pointing out connections seem to be saying he's going chasing and it's unfair to compare him to Footpad before we see him jump a fence.

NOBODY was saying Footpad will make a top class 2 mile chaser during his juvenine or 5yo campaign - I know scooby mentioned him on here early and plenty of us got a nice price for the Arkle... but that was after reports of him schooling - I defy anybody to say that during Footpad's hurdling career they thought he'd be a top class novice chaser?

He was completely transformed.... just like Might Bite who was a bang average hurdler.

Incredibly unlikely Defi Du Seuil will improve as a chaser for all the points made above, so I agree anyway :highly_amused:

 

[archie]

The only link between DDS and Footpad is that they both have a hurdle rating of 157 and most would say that that is grossly over the top for DDS.
In his second season, Footpad came second in a Champion Hurdle having already shown ability over brush hurdles as a juvenile. In his second season, DDS beat one horse home in both his races.

 

[Scooby91]

There's one with a very similar second season to footpad. Who missed the festival and looks a chaser all over. If I knew he wasn't injured I'd be on.
Cilaos emery

I'm also on melon watch, even though it wouldn't particularly make sense, however when work steps up, if he goes chasing there's a related bet with laurina for the CH as if he goes over fences you can bet any money that she's done him in a piece of work

 

[Kevloaf]

There's one with a very similar second season to footpad. Who missed the festival and looks a chaser all over. If I knew he wasn't injured I'd be on.
Cilaos emery

I'm also on melon watch, even though it wouldn't particularly make sense, however when work steps up, if he goes chasing there's a related bet with laurina for the CH as if he goes over fences you can bet any money that she's done him in a piece of work

I very nearly backed Melon (Arkle) Laurina (CH) and BDD (Mares) last night in a trixie before I got side tracked....


I think Cilaos Emery is an interesting horse, I'd thought JLT would be an option though so 20/1 wasn't big enough to think too much about. Yopu've been a fan of him for a while haven't you?

 

[Scooby91]

I very nearly backed Melon (Arkle) Laurina (CH) and BDD (Mares) last night in a trixie before I got side tracked....


I think Cilaos Emery is an interesting horse, I'd thought JLT would be an option though so 20/1 wasn't big enough to think too much about. Yopu've been a fan of him for a while haven't you?

always liked him, he's a big shell of a horse who iv always seen as a chaser, he's deffinately not the finished article at €4,600 he's been some buy.

No idea if he's sound or not as he was injured.

 

[Quevega]

The breeding suggests Defi du Seuil should improve for fences. I was disappointed he went hurdling last year as his breeding suggested he'd have been a possible arkle contender. Don't have to go back too long to see five year old french breds having a good record in the arkle (even if weight allowances have changed over the years since).
But the biggest reason I thought he should go chasing was how difficult five year olds find it in their second season hurdling, it just seems to be too big a jump and the really good ones take most of the season to catch up and get anywhere near the older horses.
Remains to be seen how much last year has affected the horse going forward. The triumph it won hasn't worked out that well, but he did win all his races that season easily.

 

[SeanRock]

There's one with a very similar second season to footpad. Who missed the festival and looks a chaser all over. If I knew he wasn't injured I'd be on.
Cilaos emery

I'm also on melon watch, even though it wouldn't particularly make sense, however when work steps up, if he goes chasing there's a related bet with laurina for the CH as if he goes over fences you can bet any money that she's done him in a piece of work

I very nearly backed Melon (Arkle) Laurina (CH) and BDD (Mares) last night in a trixie before I got side tracked....

I think Cilaos Emery is an interesting horse, I'd thought JLT would be an option though so 20/1 wasn't big enough to think too much about. Yopu've been a fan of him for a while haven't you?

Cilaos Emery is available at 25’s any race with Ladbrokes lads. If he’s sound that’s a nice price imo. If he’s sound & takes to fences it could look a steal in the new year.

 

[Kevloaf]

Cilaos Emery is available at 25’s any race with Ladbrokes lads. If he’s sound that’s a nice price imo. If he’s sound & takes to fences it could look a steal in the new year.

I think I'll take that, (probably 28s with a boost)... he wouldn't even be badly handicapped over hurdles having beaten Melon 1L and close up behind Mick Jazz who placed in the CH.... so any improvement over fences would surely make him a hugely interesting horse.

1.5pt win at 28/1 (I'll gamble on him being sound)