Festival Winners...

[Leman14]

Just flicking back through subjects brought up last year... I found this post (below in italic), highlighting non-handicap winners from the 2017 festival.

The ones in Bold were the ones that I felt were a tad over-priced.


Non-handicap winners 2017 (Best Prices available)

Labaik (Injured)
Altior @ 6/4 for Champion Chase
Buveur D'air @ 4/1 for Champion Hurdle
Apples Jade @ 3/1 for Mares Hurdle
Tiger Roll ... Grand National Bound??
Willoughby Court @ 16/1 for JLT
Might Bite @ 10/1 for Gold Cup
Special Tiara @ 25/1 for Champion Chase
Cause of Causes @ 7/1 for X-Country
Fayonagh @ 7/2
Yorkhill @ 8/1 for Gold Cup, 8/1 for Ryanair, 12/1 Champion Hurdle
Un De Sceaux @ 13/2 for Ryanair
Nichols Canyon @ 7/1 for Stayers
Let's Dance @ 11/1 for Mares Hurdle
Defi Du Seuil @ 8/1 for Champion Hurdle
Penhill @ 18/1 for Stayers, 20/1 for RSA
Sizing John @ 6/1 for Gold Cup
Pacha Du Polder @ 12/1 for Foxhunter




This tells me two things...

1) I didn't do a very good job of picking out horses that were over-priced etc... BUT
2) Horses such as Tiger Roll, Penhill and Pacha Du Polder were all available at juicy prices for races that they ended up winning!

Backing all 18 horses blind for their most-likely target, would have yielded a healthy profit!

I will do a similar thing for 2018 later today/tomorrow, but it may also be worth revisiting/updating 2017 winners with 2019 targets...

 

[Leman14]

2018 Winners are below with "Best Odds Available" (taken from Oddschecker to make the task easier)

Summerville Boy - Champion Hurdle @ 14/1
Footpad – CC @ 9/2, Ryanair @ 8/1, GC @ 16/1
Buveur D’Air – Champion Hurdle @ 7/2
Benie Des Dieux – Mares @ 4/1, Ryanair @ 16/1
Rathvinden – No Odds…
Samcro – CH @ 4/1, Arkle @ 12/1, JLT @ 10/1, RSA @ 20/1
Presenting Percy – Gold Cup @ 6/1
Altior – Champion Chase @ 7/4
Tiger Roll – Cross-Country @ 5/1, (Gold Cup @ 100/1!)
Relegate – Supreme @ 20/1, Ballymore @ 16/1, Mares Nov @ 14/1
Shattered Love – Ryanair @ 16/1, Gold Cup @ 25/1
Balko Des Flos – Ryanair @ 10/1, Gold Cup @ 40/1
Penhill – Stayers @ 7/1
Laurina – Mares @ 3/1, Arkle @ 14/1, CH @ 14/1, JLT @ 20/1
Farclas – Stayers @ 16/1, Champion Hurdle @ 40/1
Kilbricken Storm – National Hunt Chase @ 25/1, RSA @ 33/1, Stayers @ 40/1,
Native River – Gold Cup @ 8/1
Pacha Du Polder – No Odds….

As I did such a bad job last year of picking out the value sorrow - feel free to discuss!

 

[jkite16]

Am I mad in thinking 4/1 about Benie Des Dieux is absolutely huge... I'm convinced Laurina will be going for the Arkle and it's only a matter of time before Apples Jade steps up and goes for the stayers. That 4/1 could swiftly become 6/4 once they all start coming out...

*Side note - Benie Des Dieux could easily go chasing, in which case, ignore the above :highly_amused:

 

[Leman14]

Am I mad in thinking 4/1 about Benie Des Dieux is absolutely huge... I'm convinced Laurina will be going for the Arkle and it's only a matter of time before Apples Jade steps up and goes for the stayers. That 4/1 could swiftly become 6/4 once they all start coming out...

*Side note - Benie Des Dieux could easily go chasing, in which case, ignore the above :highly_amused:

At this stage, anything is possible and I'm sure that we wouldn't be 100% certain the week before the festival, let alone 6 months out.

(Side note... Less than 6 months to go )

The ones that jump out at me (purely because the odds are much bigger) are:
Kilbricken Storm - if you can pick the right race (Also available at 12/1 Any Race with Hills), Shattered Love and Balko Des Flos

Same argument goes for Shattered Love as per Willoughby Court (who has the odd mention on the forum already this year) and then double-figure odds about BDF to retain the Ryanair crown or MUCH bigger to go the "Don Cossack" route..

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Am I mad in thinking 4/1 about Benie Des Dieux is absolutely huge... I'm convinced Laurina will be going for the Arkle and it's only a matter of time before Apples Jade steps up and goes for the stayers. That 4/1 could swiftly become 6/4 once they all start coming out...

*Side note - Benie Des Dieux could easily go chasing, in which case, ignore the above :highly_amused:

Benie Des Dieux will be going chasing it seems. According to quotes from Mullins at the end of last season. One for the Ryanair.

So I’m that case, I expect Laurina goes for the Mares Hurdle which is a shame as she’s better than that.

 

[archie]

Benie Des Dieux chased last season as well but she still went for the Mares hurdle. You really can place no value on a Mullins quote from last week never mind last season. They usually do an atr stable tour in October and that's likely to be the first realistic (or not) information.

While agreeing that Festival form is a plus, and thanks for doing the work, you need to bear in mind that this isn't necessarily the case for previous winners of the championship races. In the last 40 years, only four times have two champions successfully defended their crowns at the same Festival even if you include the Ryanair.
1979 Hilly Way (CC) & Monksfield (CH)
1988 Pearlyman (CC) & Galmoy (Stayers)
2003 Best Mate (GC) & Baracouda (Stayers)
2011 Big Bucks (Stayers) & Albertas Run (Ryanair)

There are always novelty bets on how many champions will retain their crown but it is the ultimate mugs bet carried along on a wave of nostalgia for past performances.

 

[Innoko]

Benie Des Dieux will be going chasing it seems. According to quotes from Mullins at the end of last season. One for the Ryanair.

So I’m that case, I expect Laurina goes for the Mares Hurdle which is a shame as she’s better than that.

Any bet I've had on a Mullins horse has been in the Any Race Market.

Impossible to tell where any horse from Closutton will end up at this stage I feel..

For whats its worth, I think BDD should be allowed to defend her crown. And Laurina have a crack at the Arkle.

Apologies off topic!

 

[Leman14]

Any bet I've had on a Mullins horse has been in the Any Race Market.

Impossible to tell where any horse from Closutton will end up at this stage I feel..

For whats its worth, I think BDD should be allowed to defend her crown. And Laurina have a crack at the Arkle.

Apologies off topic!

Thanks for the input Innoko - not off topic at all :encouragement:
Trying to work out the right race is all part of finding value

 

[somer1]

Only way to back a Mullins runner this far out is to win any race.Hes cost me loads over the years.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I expect Laurina goes for the Mares Hurdle which is a shame as she’s better than that.

Not everyone is a fan of these Mares races but there's been a big push in recent years to promote Mares and as they've elevated this race to Grade 1 why aim the horse anywhere else ?

I know everyone wants to see the best horses in the championship races but a penalty kick G1 with prize money to match can't be knocked, and it's not the trainers/owners fault those running the game have created these same sex races.

The superstar that was Quevega raced only against her fellow sex at Cheltenham in this race and, I could be wrong, but I think the race was only a Grade 2 when she contested it, but her place in history is assured.

And for the record, I thought the mares novice race last season was probably the most uncompetitive pointless race I've see at the festival in 30 years, it reminded me of a novice hurdle race at Sedgefield in deep ground where the 1/8 fav comes 25l clear of bad horses on the bridle, I'm not convinced anyone wants to see that at the Cheltenham festival but the schedule has produced these events...

 

[Kevloaf]

This is one of my absolute favourite topics/threads on these forums. I have gotten absolutely loads out of it. It's good work Leman and when the season starts in full we'll be able to look at placed horses again like we did last year. I remember specifically doing a level stakes bit of analysis somewhere for at least 2 years so if you've got a link to the thread that'll be great and I'll see if I still have the workings/formulas etc.

This tells me two things...

1) I didn't do a very good job of picking out horses that were over-priced etc... BUT
2) Horses such as Tiger Roll, Penhill and Pacha Du Polder were all available at juicy prices for races that they ended up winning!

Backing all 18 horses blind for their most-likely target, would have yielded a healthy profit!

I will do a similar thing for 2018 later today/tomorrow, but it may also be worth revisiting/updating 2017 winners with 2019 targets...

1. :highly_amused:
2. Yeah you're absolutely right, without counting Tiger Roll it still in profit

I think Archie's point regarding it not being as relevant in Championship races is valid enough... I'd be fairly confident they'd all be short prices though, so excluding them might be the way to go anyway? By definition they should be the most competitive and hardest races to win and often involve various "strands" or "entry points" that build there, that you don't get in all the other divisions.

I still think if I was going to do a blanket rule of 1 point on each one, I wouldn't exclude the Championship Races... but will have at some more stats and do some analysis on this

 

[Kevloaf]

Am I mad in thinking 4/1 about Benie Des Dieux is absolutely huge... I'm convinced Laurina will be going for the Arkle and it's only a matter of time before Apples Jade steps up and goes for the stayers. That 4/1 could swiftly become 6/4 once they all start coming out...

*Side note - Benie Des Dieux could easily go chasing, in which case, ignore the above :highly_amused:

Benie Des Dieux will be going chasing it seems. According to quotes from Mullins at the end of last season. One for the Ryanair.

So I’m that case, I expect Laurina goes for the Mares Hurdle which is a shame as she’s better than that.

I think the owners will aim her (Laurina) a little higher and Benie Des Dieux can go chasing and slot back in to the Mares Hurdle to try and retain it.

I wouldn't however say she was "absolutely huge". 4/1 isn't a price to get excited about this far out in general terms about any horse (Altior maybe), but she's not going to go 6/4 this side of Christmas is she? Thinking out loud now but if they did declare Laurina as going chasing (and I'd love that) then they may clip BDD but they couldn't make her too much shorter unless Mullins literally comes out and says that is the plan for her?...AND Gigginstown said they were going for the stayers...but I also don't think they'll do that. If she couldn't win the Mares I don't see them going for a tougher race. I'd hold fire... but she is my idea of the winner at this stage - just not a value bet.

 

[Kevloaf]

2018 Winners are below with "Best Odds Available" (taken from Oddschecker to make the task easier)

Summerville Boy - Champion Hurdle @ 14/1
Footpad – CC @ 9/2, Ryanair @ 8/1, GC @ 16/1
Buveur D’Air – Champion Hurdle @ 7/2
Benie Des Dieux – Mares @ 4/1, Ryanair @ 16/1
Rathvinden – No Odds…
Samcro – CH @ 4/1, Arkle @ 12/1, JLT @ 10/1, RSA @ 20/1
Presenting Percy – Gold Cup @ 6/1
Altior – Champion Chase @ 7/4
Tiger Roll – Cross-Country @ 5/1, (Gold Cup @ 100/1!)
Relegate – Supreme @ 20/1, Ballymore @ 16/1, Mares Nov @ 14/1
Shattered Love – Ryanair @ 16/1, Gold Cup @ 25/1
Balko Des Flos – Ryanair @ 10/1, Gold Cup @ 40/1
Penhill – Stayers @ 7/1
Laurina – Mares @ 3/1, Arkle @ 14/1, CH @ 14/1, JLT @ 20/1
Farclas – Stayers @ 16/1, Champion Hurdle @ 40/1
Kilbricken Storm – National Hunt Chase @ 25/1, RSA @ 33/1, Stayers @ 40/1,
Native River – Gold Cup @ 8/1
Pacha Du Polder – No Odds….

As I did such a bad job last year of picking out the value sorrow - feel free to discuss!

Will do :highly_amused:

The ones that jump out at me (purely because the odds are much bigger) are:
Kilbricken Storm - if you can pick the right race (Also available at 12/1 Any Race with Hills), Shattered Love and Balko Des Flos

Same argument goes for Shattered Love as per Willoughby Court (who has the odd mention on the forum already this year) and then double-figure odds about BDF to retain the Ryanair crown or MUCH bigger to go the "Don Cossack" route..

100% agree with Kilbricken Storm. He stands out an absolute mile at the price for me. He's definitely going chasing and I've made the case on the RSA thread that I don't think Tizzard will go for 4 miler again with his 'best' after his comments regarding jockeys and what happened with Native River. Elegant Escape got 3rd in the RSA and KS is a better hurdler than EE so I can't see him going anywhere but RSA if he takes to fences. 33/1 an absolute must bet in my opinion.

 

[archie]

You could do worse than to add the winners of the Martin Pipe and Pertemps to the list.

 

[BigChaang]

Where did you see Kilbricken storm definitely going chasing Kev ?, that'll be my first A/p bet up t' swanny !.
did him for the stayers hurdle.:sorrow:

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Where did you see Kilbricken storm definitely going chasing Kev ?, that'll be my first A/p bet up t' swanny !.
did him for the stayers hurdle.:sorrow:

The trainer said that he’s four decent novice chasers this season - one of which was KS.

I think I remember that anyway

 

[billymag]

Am I mad in thinking 4/1 about Benie Des Dieux is absolutely huge... I'm convinced Laurina will be going for the Arkle and it's only a matter of time before Apples Jade steps up and goes for the stayers. That 4/1 could swiftly become 6/4 once they all start coming out...

*Side note - Benie Des Dieux could easily go chasing, in which case, ignore the above :highly_amused:

Laurina will not be going for the Arkle

 

[Innoko]

Laurina will not be going for the Arkle

You certain billy?

Mares race?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

And for the record, I thought the mares novice race last season was probably the most uncompetitive pointless race I've see at the festival in 30 years, it reminded me of a novice hurdle race at Sedgefield in deep ground where the 1/8 fav comes 25l clear of bad horses on the bridle, I'm not convinced anyone wants to see that at the Cheltenham festival but the schedule has produced these events...

I think Laurina was on another planet to that lot last season, she'll be a Champion Hurdle horse IMO, maybe not this season, as said previously, I think the Annie Power route for her is what will happen.

I see Mullins go on about how much of a good chaser she can potentially be, what is the obsession with sending them chasing if they can clean up hurdling? She won't ever be a Gold Cup horse, and that is the ultimate goal, so for that reason I'd keep her over hurdles.

 

[Innoko]

Sullivan indicating the Champion Hurdle is the hopeful target in One Jump Ahead.