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Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

Istabraq said:
On the face of it yes, but they also have him 4/1 for the Arkle (industry shortest) but are best priced about the horse for JLT and RSA.
They appear to have taken a strong view that he won't be tried over further than 2m...
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Appears to be showing as 9s for the Arkle on their website. Must admit don't see 7s as particularly great value for the CH so just done a smallish double with Black Op (Any race) with Coral at 71/1
 
Kalashnikov is 8/1 best price for the Arkle - target not confirmed. Even if it was, he's not going novice chasing with standout form.

Penhill 9/1 for the stayers.

Mental.
 
TimRiggins said:
Hi mate, hope you're keeping well :)

Can't wait for the books to arrive, so I can get stuck into some reading!

Is it me, or has this been the longest summer, ever :disgust:
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I'm good ta.

Agreed, it has been a long summer for me too but there's light at the end of the tunnel. I love this time of year though. All the chat about the jumps horses, plus all of my favourite flat races ( Cesarewitch, Cambridgeshire, Arc, Ayr Gold cup, Champions Day).
 
Kevloaf said:
Kalashnikov is 8/1 best price for the Arkle - target not confirmed. Even if it was, he's not going novice chasing with standout form.

Penhill 9/1 for the stayers.

Mental.
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Correct. :encouragement:
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I'm good ta.

Agreed, it has been a long summer for me too but there's light at the end of the tunnel. I love this time of year though. All the chat about the jumps horses, plus all of my favourite flat races ( Cesarewitch, Cambridgeshire, Arc, Ayr Gold cup, Champions Day).
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Good stuff.

Agreed on the end of season races being the best, too.
 
Kevloaf said:
I don't think Tizzard will see 3rd in the RSA as a reason to divert away from that race with his best staying novice CoD.

Tizzard has shown a very direct approach in his training and placing of horses.... Elegant Escape was ideal for the 4 miler... and still didn't run in it.

Finian's Oscar was an obvious candidate for the JLT and he went 2m, then 3m, then hurdling before eventually beiong forced to run in the correct race.

I'd look for a "any race" price... I think WH are 25/1?
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Yeah, the 'any race' market was what I initially looked at, Ladbrokes were best price 14's that I could find, WH are 12's.

Same trainer has Vision Des Flos, Slate House & Lostintranslation, as what I'd imagine would be his top novice chasers along with Kilbricken Storm for the coming season, but the latter is the only one I can see going further than 3m. Admittedly, he can run 2 in one race, he did in the Supreme, but then again, I am thinking that was mostly for experience, given they are all likely thought of as future chasers and not hurdlers anyway.

I think Tizzard will have a better festival this time around too. Already in on Vision Des Flos 'any race', you've also mentioned Slate House too, I just think these horses were geared towards chasing and anything over hurdles was a bonus for them.
 
Its September so my ante-post guessing can now begin!

I have a question for you all, interested on peoples thoughts...

In previous years, if the price dictates, I have always played a horse each way. I'm wondering if actually 'win only' is the way to go?
 
Innoko said:
Its September so my ante-post guessing can now begin!

I have a question for you all, interested on peoples thoughts...

In previous years, if the price dictates, I have always played a horse each way. I'm wondering if actually 'win only' is the way to go?
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Always go e/way personally with the exception of free bets, mostly because I won't back anything short enough in price this far out anyway, unless in a speculative multi, in which case always e/way also.

Plenty will have different ideas on stakes of course, each to their own I guess.
 
Innoko said:
Its September so my ante-post guessing can now begin!

I have a question for you all, interested on peoples thoughts...

In previous years, if the price dictates, I have always played a horse each way. I'm wondering if actually 'win only' is the way to go?
Click to expand...

This far out I never back each way. I don't like the idea of losing twice as much when they don't show up in March.
 
Two replies, two differing opinions and I can see both posts are quite valid!

:confused:
 
Annamix 20/1 Supreme
Samcro 7/1 Champion Hurdle
Altior 6/4 QMCC
Penhill 6/1 Stayers

€10 free bet pays 29k
 
Kevloaf said:
Kalashnikov is 8/1 best price for the Arkle - target not confirmed. Even if it was, he's not going novice chasing with standout form.

Penhill 9/1 for the stayers.

Mental.
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Have you been nibbling at Penhill again Kevloaf...7/1 with Coral now.
 
Innoko said:
Its September so my ante-post guessing can now begin!

I have a question for you all, interested on peoples thoughts...

In previous years, if the price dictates, I have always played a horse each way. I'm wondering if actually 'win only' is the way to go?
Click to expand...

Most of mine are win only. I’ve a few at 20/1 which are win only bets.

Though I do have ITCF at 33/1 as an each way bet. But that’s more because of possibly coming up against Samcro than the price.
 
Innoko said:
Its September so my ante-post guessing can now begin!

I have a question for you all, interested on peoples thoughts...

In previous years, if the price dictates, I have always played a horse each way. I'm wondering if actually 'win only' is the way to go?
Click to expand...

Ew ante post bets can work brilliantly if you get a good price for first three then only 5 or 6 turn up, you still get the 3 places, but then again your win bet looks much better too with fewer rivals, and your stake is split in half. Very much a personal preference kinda thing, I'm happy to go ew with a decent price.
 
Win only pretty much all the way for me, worked great last year so won't be changing tactics. Would have seriously hit my overall margin if I had bet e/w on the likes of Samcro and Footpad.
 
Innoko said:
Its September so my ante-post guessing can now begin!

I have a question for you all, interested on peoples thoughts...

In previous years, if the price dictates, I have always played a horse each way. I'm wondering if actually 'win only' is the way to go?
Click to expand...

I asked a very similar question when I joined the forum and FM has the exact same reply then, which I completely agree with and I definitely made a more concious effort to place more 'win-only' bets after that.

My thought process on the 'each way' part before I make a bet is loosely:

1. Real Price - The 'real' return for the each way bet. 20/1 at 1/5 the odds is NOT 4/1 for the place. It's 6/4.in net profit terms - now in September 2018, do I want to be effectivly backing any horse at 6/4 yet for March 2019? Absolutely not.

2. The likely field size - MrM makes a very good point above and I always consider an each way bet more strongly if you're confident you'll have less than 8 runners in a race... which is sort of linked to the next point too.

3. Market rivals/The market - I'd always look at how the market is shaping up... We KNOW which horses are going for the Gold Cup in the main, and you can't rule loads of them out near the top of the market if they got there. I'd suggest it is very tough to find a value each way bet in the Gold Cup, because for any horse you picked at an 'each way price' I'd be able to find at least 3 with a 'place chance' as well, so you don't really have an edge - whereas a race like the Arkle is much more likely to cut up, and horses will get beaten in trials and step up in trip in search of improvement and go for other targets etc - so it is theoretically easier to find each way value in some races more than others.

4. What will the market be like on the day - This is less of a significant point, as some prices will be long gone, but the enhanced place terms that are available closer to the day (as well as NRNB guarentee later in the season) are still considerations before I back each way.
 
I've always been in the win only camp for antepost purposes, too.

You first have to get the horse to the race, and then it has to win.

I think that I'll be able to utilise the funds by having access to them, rather than waiting on a short priced place bet. if I have access to it, rather than waiting on a short priced bet.
 
After reading all of excellent the advice I am now 'win only' on the vast majority of my ante post this year.

Having looked at last years results, I would of been significantly better off had I done this so feel it is the way forward...

Fingers crossed.... :)
 
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