July Festival Yankee

[somer1]

Ive gone in already as the price is 10/1 with Hills.Target nailed on and class horse in the Hunters i think.Anyone wannna put some imput in?

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Ive gone in already as the price is 10/1 with Hills.Target nailed on and class horse in the Hunters i think.Anyone wannna put some imput in?

I know very little about Hunter Chasers but 14/1 seems decent for a grade 1 winner (albeit 3 years ago).

 

[Middle_Of_March]

It’s a race I’ll be avoiding antepost after being balls deep in Burning Ambition last year at decent prices before he got backed into a short price, cruised through the entire race, went odds on in running but then failed to stay up the hill.

I’m still bitter about that one tbh. So I’ll be leaving the Foxhunters well alone. Unless it comes up in one of these yankees

 

[ryanh97]

Similar to MoM the foxhunters is one I'll be leaving alone in single bets but I'm happy with a speculative yankee selection

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

Gilgamboa seems a decent shout, if he's JP's no1 then will have one of the top jocks in the saddle, prob Derek O'Connor, only usually a handful that can be considered and the pilot makes a huge difference.

 

[somer1]

It’s a race I’ll be avoiding antepost after being balls deep in Burning Ambition last year at decent prices before he got backed into a short price, cruised through the entire race, went odds on in running but then failed to stay up the hill.

I’m still bitter about that one tbh. So I’ll be leaving the Foxhunters well alone. Unless it comes up in one of these yankees

Its an Antepost yankee.You will get ya fingers burnt thats the thing with betting antepost.Its the same in any race your taking a chance
MOM.You should be happy as at least you got a run for your money.Most of us were sat on Annamix and didnt even get a run.

 

[Istabraq]

Didn’t we have a forum plunge on any Nichols winner at 5/1 ?
Foxhunter has been very kind to many of us over the years, though not for July yankee purposes....

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Its an Antepost yankee.You will get ya fingers burnt thats the thing with betting antepost.Its the same in any race your taking a chance
MOM.You should be happy as at least you got a run for your money.Most of us were sat on Annamix and didnt even get a run.

Good point. But I tend to have two or three big antepost bets a year. This year was him for the Foxhunters and September for the Oaks. Sadly the latter missed the race through injury. It’s amazing when they win (One For Arthur in the National) but when they get backed into such a short price (Burning Ambition went off like 15/8 in the end) and travel like he did, it’s just gutting to see him fail to stay.

Can I ask why you were so involved on Annamix? Because I imagine he’s heading for the supreme this year too I’d say. Mullins number one last year apparently so was that the reason?

 

[Kevloaf]

Its an Antepost yankee.You will get ya fingers burnt thats the thing with betting antepost.Its the same in any race your taking a chance
MOM.You should be happy as at least you got a run for your money.Most of us were sat on Annamix and didnt even get a run.

Getting your fingers burnt and purposfully putting your hand in an oven comes to mind....

Having a chunky bet on a horse that has run once in its life, and before it has even run for Mullins is closer to the oven than it is hard luck...

 

[Kevloaf]

It’s a race I’ll be avoiding antepost after being balls deep in Burning Ambition last year at decent prices before he got backed into a short price, cruised through the entire race, went odds on in running but then failed to stay up the hill.

I’m still bitter about that one tbh. So I’ll be leaving the Foxhunters well alone. Unless it comes up in one of these yankees

Similar to MoM the foxhunters is one I'll be leaving alone in single bets but I'm happy with a speculative yankee selection

Would a bad result in a race really put you off for the next year? I think you should take the positives!

Burning Ambition was no where near my biggest bet, but I stuck to a 'points' system and am always happy to beat the SP so emphatically in this case too (especially with him trading odds on in running!)

Whatever you did to beat the SP so well, is worth learning from and trying to do again, but perhaps this year take a more cautious approach and lay off your stake, or lock in a small profit no matter what.... or of course you can let it run for the hell of it... but I wouldn't take it as a negative at all.....certainly wouldn't put me off the race.

I'd be put off a race if I Was throwing ante post mone4y at it and not getting a runner, or not beating the SP... not beating the SP is where you'd have huge problems

 

[Kevloaf]

For the yankee?

Mares Hurdle
Benie Des Dieux 4/1

Won it this year and confirmed the form over the same distance at the Punchestown Festival - looks to have Apple's Jade held to me and I can't see her rocking up anywhere else. Laurina's owners will be aiming higher if staying over hurdles and literally higher if she's going over fences.... and she has the rest of the Mullins Mares covered too...

 

[Middle_Of_March]

For the yankee?

Mares Hurdle
Benie Des Dieux 4/1

Won it this year and confirmed the form over the same distance at the Punchestown Festival - looks to have Apple's Jade held to me and I can't see her rocking up anywhere else. Laurina's owners will be aiming higher if staying over hurdles and literally higher if she's going over fences.... and she has the rest of the Mullins Mares covered too...

I was on her at 14s to win any race last year after seeing Mullins gushing about her in a stable tour.

My fear for her is that Rich Ricci wants her over fences. She’s a brilliant jumper of a fence. Mullins has actually said he’d love to see a Mares chase introduced as she’d be aimed at that all season. That doesn’t bode well for a Mares Hurdle defence.

I heard a whisper this week that Laurina is going over fences. If that’s true and BDD did stay at hurdling, the Mares Hurdle is at her mercy. So I’m planning to back BDD again in some multiples at 4/1 but won’t be backing her as a single just yet. That can wait until we know where she’s going. As any race is pointless for her as she’d be 10/1 antepost for the Ryanair, the Mares Chase is currently non existent but she’s a fair price for her other target - the Mares Hurdle. So for that reason, anyone backing BDD antepost will surely have to play her for either the Mares Hurdle if they think she will run in that. Or not at all. The any race option is pointless for her.

I certainly wouldn’t be against her for this yankee that’s for sure.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Would a bad result in a race really put you off for the next year? I think you should take the positives!

Burning Ambition was no where near my biggest bet, but I stuck to a 'points' system and am always happy to beat the SP so emphatically in this case too (especially with him trading odds on in running!)

Whatever you did to beat the SP so well, is worth learning from and trying to do again, but perhaps this year take a more cautious approach and lay off your stake, or lock in a small profit no matter what.... or of course you can let it run for the hell of it... but I wouldn't take it as a negative at all.....certainly wouldn't put me off the race.

I'd be put off a race if I Was throwing ante post mone4y at it and not getting a runner, or not beating the SP... not beating the SP is where you'd have huge problems

I’m not against it as such. I’m just against it right now - with 9 months to go.

It’s so often a race for horses on the decline. Last year I felt like I had to back BA at the double figure price because of how he was the upcoming star and I knew his price would contract for that reason.

But asides from him, it’s a likely field of the same type of horse again. Some may be in a quicker decline than others so getting a grasp of that from a betting proposition is impossible in my view. It just makes it a race with no betting angle for me. Similar to betting antepost on the Sandown Veterans Final to some extent.

Your point about beating SP is a good one though. I suppose I should take some positive out of that.

The race to completely ignore antepost at this stage for us all really should be the Supreme thlugh. For everyone that is. It’s a nightmare of a race prior to about February in finding value antepost. Very very tough. I’ve banned myself from playing on the race until it becomes NRNB this year.

 

[somer1]

MOM.I like to pick a horse for the Supreme,Arkle,Triumph before they 1st run.And when i send any winnings back to my bank account i y withdrew in multis of £10. Whats left in my betting account goes over the 3 horses so i get a bit on but dont it dont feel like much over 6 months.And when Mr Rich said it was his best chance of a winner i thought im on.

 

[Kevloaf]

I was on her at 14s to win any race last year after seeing Mullins gushing about her in a stable tour.

My fear for her is that Rich Ricci wants her over fences. She’s a brilliant jumper of a fence. Mullins has actually said he’d love to see a Mares chase introduced as she’d be aimed at that all season. That doesn’t bode well for a Mares Hurdle defence.

I heard a whisper this week that Laurina is going over fences. If that’s true and BDD did stay at hurdling, the Mares Hurdle is at her mercy. So I’m planning to back BDD again in some multiples at 4/1 but won’t be backing her as a single just yet. That can wait until we know where she’s going. As any race is pointless for her as she’d be 10/1 antepost for the Ryanair, the Mares Chase is currently non existent but she’s a fair price for her other target - the Mares Hurdle. So for that reason, anyone backing BDD antepost will surely have to play her for either the Mares Hurdle if they think she will run in that. Or not at all. The any race option is pointless for her.

I certainly wouldn’t be against her for this yankee that’s for sure.

It was Laurina that Mullins said he'd want the Mares Chase for (found it here)
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/mullins-record-as-laurina-scores/144675

Mullins, becoming the winning-most trainer in Festival history with 61 victories, said: "She's a fine, big mare. If there was ever going to be a mares' chase in Cheltenham, she's the type of horse you'd want for it.

Benie had already been over fences and isn't a novice, so I'm pretty sure that is the way round. I expect BDD to be similar to VVM, in that she coudl take in either fences or hurdles...but at 4/1 I think we can strongly consider BDD for the Mares at 4/1?

 

[Kevloaf]

MOM.I like to pick a horse for the Supreme,Arkle,Triumph before they 1st run.

Is that profitable though somer?

The Arkle I can see, as every single horse you'll have seen pretty much....

but the Supreme, Triumph (and I'll include Bumper) are very tough on the day of the race, without not being sure the horse will get there.

I don't find there is much juice in the Supreme.... there are tens of horses around 20-25/1 at the moment that will be bigger by December

 

[somer1]

Is that profitable though somer?

The Arkle I can see, as every single horse you'll have seen pretty much....

but the Supreme, Triumph (and I'll include Bumper) are very tough on the day of the race, without not being sure the horse will get there.

I don't find there is much juice in the Supreme.... there are tens of horses around 20-25/1 at the moment that will be bigger by December

No Kev.But you feel good when you land one.Its just a bit of fun putting the odd £3.71 and such on.But thats the fun in it.No one knows.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

It was Laurina that Mullins said he'd want the Mares Chase for (found it here)
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/mullins-record-as-laurina-scores/144675


Benie had already been over fences and isn't a novice, so I'm pretty sure that is the way round. I expect BDD to be similar to VVM, in that she coudl take in either fences or hurdles...but at 4/1 I think we can strongly consider BDD for the Mares at 4/1?

Definitely BDD for an all age Mares Chase.

Mentioned it two or three times. One of which was after she won the Mares Hurdle at Punchestown after winning At Cheltenham.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

MOM.I like to pick a horse for the Supreme,Arkle,Triumph before they 1st run.And when i send any winnings back to my bank account i y withdrew in multis of £10. Whats left in my betting account goes over the 3 horses so i get a bit on but dont it dont feel like much over 6 months.And when Mr Rich said it was his best chance of a winner i thought im on.

Fair enough bud. Just wondered really.

The triumph and the supreme are two of the tougher races I think. At least the Arkle you’ll usually have Hurdle form to go with early doors.

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Just a thought for the average small-medium stake punter betting on the Supreme, I was in a tough position before the race last year I think around 20 points down (far worse than any other race) but due to all the offers in the lead up to the Festival I was able to get into a position whereas long as nothing bigger than around 25/1 won I was getting my total outlay back on the race, which I did. Even if an outsider won I still wouldn't have been down anymore than 20 points.

Also the majority of my pre-race Supreme losses were on Annamix and Ifthecapfits at good prices. I have absolutely no regrets about placing those bets, another year one or both would have made it to the Festival and I would have been in a great position. The moment that Billymag gives the green light for the Mullins Supreme horse I'll be on again this time. Already have some free bets and small multiples on Annamix just in case he's the one again ...haha!