Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

[ryanh97]

When September wins the Oaks in June, I’ll be sticking a chunk more on him at 5/2 any race.

Any chance you can tell me who wins all 5 classics so I can have a Canadian

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Not a huge fan of flat racing but I fancy Contingent (20/1) for the Oaks - impressed me on debut and should relish the step up in trip according to breeding.

I lumped on September in the Chesham last year at Royal Ascot and took 33s before that race for the Oaks. Fast ground over a mile and a half and she will blitz them.

Fair shout with Contingent. Definitely one to watch.

Have to say, now I’ve done Cheltenham, it beats Epsom, Newmarket and Ascot hands down in my opinion.

 

[filthyewaypunter]

...Have to say, now I’ve done Cheltenham, it beats Epsom, Newmarket and Ascot hands down in my opinion.

Couldn’t agree more. I think the Dublin Festival comes close in terms of quality and I really hope British trainers embrace it next year. Would like to go myself next year.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Any chance you can tell me who wins all 5 classics so I can have a Canadian

I’ll give it a go

Veracious - 1000 Guineas
Roaring Lion - 2000 Guineas
Saxon Warrior - Derby
September - Oaks
Kenya - St Leger

 

[filthyewaypunter]

Any chance you can tell me who wins all 5 classics so I can have a Canadian

For what it’s worth, these are my darts...

1,000 Guineas - Veracious
2,000 Guineas - Elarqam
Oaks - Contingent
Derby - Nelson
St Leger - The Pentagon

 

[archie]

Surely, serial yellow cards for introducing ferret racing into serious business. :grumpy:

 

[ryanh97]

Cheers lads.

Surely, serial yellow cards for introducing ferret racing into serious business. :grumpy:

I agree Archie, but a winners a winner haha

 

[Kevloaf]

Arkle odds on Samcro tumbled from 10s to 7s in 48 hours (blue on oddschecker), unchanged odds in JLT 4s and RSA 10s !!!

There is no way there is any informed money going in to these markets at this stage...

Just mugs on forums

 

[Kevloaf]

You're correct about the 3 favourites, of course.

My main point though is that, if connections haven't made up their mind and in all likelihood won't until October, you're tying up money for 6 months in which time it's unlikely that the price will move significantly. With free bets and/or long prices this is fine especially if it fits your betting strategy but it simply isn't for me based on my experiences over a good number of years.
Every year is slightly different and everyone is old (and, no doubt, ugly) enough to go their own way but taking early (ie before a horse has reappeared) single figure prices isn't for me. A couple of examples:
Buveur D'Air was a best price of 5/1 in November.
Our Duke was a fairly skinny price before his first race of the season and went out to something like 25/1.

For sure Samcro backers got a good price this time but those who were in individual race markets had 6 months of will he, won't he and it will be exactly the same this time. Ditto Footpad. Until he, Min, Douvan and, maybe, UDS are back in full training there will be little serious discussion about Cheltenham targets and no meaningful clues until the Tingle Creek.

I don't disagree with you archie.

I wouldn't consider starting to create a book until the season has finished and Aintree and Punchestown are out of the way...and the flat is almost done-with!

The only "single" I've placed post festival this year is Penhill (2.5 pts) at 8/1. (Case made in the stayers hurdle and I am tempted to keep adding to this when I have a profitable weekend/mini-flat festival if the price is still 8/1).

I do also have three singles from BEFORE this years festival that we're speculative - a single on Presenting Percy (2.5 pts) at 40/1 for the Gold Cup, placed pre-RSA (and Monalee 33/1) and Samcro at 14/1 (1 pt) and 10/1 (2 pts) placed before the Ballymore.

10 pts I might not see again...but I won't be changing my method, I don't really get started until September
I swap those 10 pts now and knowing it is likely they might not make it I still wouldn't.... but that all comes down to punting style I suppose

 

[Kevloaf]

Is everyone of the opinion that Laurina will stick to hurdles for next year then? Every quote from the yard seems to refer to her size and that she ‘could jump a fence’. Another year over hurdles then fences after?

If she's sound she will be in the mares hurdle imo. The route she goes before that is anyone's guess. If they stepped her up in class she might go for the hattons Grace with her allowance, all Depends how ambitious they are, As There's a generous mares programme with her name written all over it. Over both codes.

Agree with that.

I think she'll be having a very similar campaign to Vroum Vroum Mag the first time she won at the festival in terms of a season.

 

[Kevloaf]

Is everyone of the opinion that Laurina will stick to hurdles for next year then? Every quote from the yard seems to refer to her size and that she ‘could jump a fence’. Another year over hurdles then fences after?

Thanks Scooby, Jono and COD. I'm new to getting involved early in comparison to most of you so it's all very helpful.

Just for the record, now would be too early to be getting involved in any Willie Mullins horse unless you we're all but certain of the target... I'm sure the others agree ?

 

[Kevloaf]

Is everyone of the opinion that Laurina will stick to hurdles for next year then? Every quote from the yard seems to refer to her size and that she ‘could jump a fence’. Another year over hurdles then fences after?

First post on the forum and chuffed to see I'm not the only one who loves an antepost punt!

Samcro the big talking point it appears so I will weigh in with my tuppance worth on him... I believe he will go RSA, working up slowly in distance on the run up to the Festival as suggested earlier in the thread. I'm taking this view mainly on the expected going with it surely not being as soft as it was this year. 3m on good to soft will be right up his street in my opinion and 10/1 seems reasonable. No race will be a gimme but wherever he turns up he will scare off some of the opposition although I would expect Black Op to make a race of it because that one really does look an out and out stayer.

In the Supreme I have sided with last years talking horse Annamix (16/1) as nothing from this edition of the Bumper really impressed me. Blackbow could be the one to take from the race but other than that I think the quality was on a par wth the 2017 running - not that great. Special mention to Envoi Allen and Dlauro purely based on their price tags and performances in P2P's but they could end up anywhere so with that in mind Annamix looks the 'safe' option to me.

For the Champion Hurdle I really fancy the chances of Summerville Boy (20/1). Tom George has suggested the plan is to remain over the smaller obstacles and if he can iron out the errors he will give BVD something to think about next season because this is a really weak division at the moment.

Bit of buzz on Twitter for Chante Neige (12/1) for the Mares Novice. Shot in the dark tbh but has apparently been given time off to strengthen up since going to Mullins last year. Will no doubt sluice up in a weak race and go off odds-on next year.

The Gold Cup will be all about Presenting Percy (6/1) for me. So impressive in the RSA this year and I believe it will take a very good animal to stop him at the course he loves. I think the GC this year will have taken the edge off Native River and with Might Bite becoming a 10 yr old I think they have missed their chance with him.

I have no idea where they will go with Footpad. Mullins suggesting stepping up in trip (desperate to win a GC) but he looks every inch a solid Champion Chase contender although has some stepping up to do in order to worry Altior. Monalee looks like he would enjoy the RyanAir and could possibly meet Petit Mouchoir if that one was stepped up in trip.

All-in-all, lots of discussion to be had and money to waste but only 357 days to go!

Welcome to the forum

Just stumbled across? Or a long-time lurker?

 

[filthyewaypunter]

Google searched “Cheltenham 2019 antepost”

 

[billymag]

Anyone know much about Dento des obeaux?

 

[SeanRock]

I like the look of Carefully Selected for the Albert Bartlett. He has lovely profile for it even at this early stage...

Edit: Found this snippet from Willie after he won his bumper at Leopardstown.

"I have to give him a crack at a winners' bumper rather than go hurdling now and chasing next year," Mullins said of Carefully Selected.
"He could be an Albert Bartlett horse for next year. That's the sort of road I'd be aiming at.

"There were a lot of fancied horses there and he made them look ordinary. He gallops all day and he's not the slowest horse either."

Think il take a chance on the 20/1 available now...

 

[Marty973]

Just for the record, now would be too early to be getting involved in any Willie Mullins horse unless you we're all but certain of the target... I'm sure the others agree ?

Thanks Kev. The only bets I will have of any kind this far out will be free bets.

 

[Marty973]

Welcome to the forum

Just stumbled across? Or a long-time lurker?

I stumbled across it in January this year and found it very helpful. Tiger Roll in particular is one that sticks in my mind that I would never have ended up on had I not joined the forum. Brought up the 3rd leg of my Samcro, Altior, Tiger Roll Treble.

 

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Be interesting to see which routes Willie sends his bumper horses next season; Blackbow and Hollowgraphic would seem the obvious Supreme and Ballymore horses at this stage to me

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Be interesting to see which routes Willie sends his bumper horses next season; Blackbow and Hollowgraphic would seem the obvious Supreme and Ballymore horses at this stage to me

I'm not sure I can back a champion bumper horse that ends up at Cheltenham for a hurdles race at the festival.

I'm not sure on the official statistics but I'm pretty sure it's not a profitable path to follow.

For this years festival from the previous years bumper, they look like the following (in order of bumper finish):

Debuchet 9th in Supreme (2nd)
Claimintakinforgan 5th in Supreme (3rd)
Next Destination 3rd in Ballymore (4th)
Western Ryder 6th in Supreme (5th)
Carter McKay 11th in Martin Pipe (15th)

And the previous years:

Ballyandy 4th in Supreme (1st)
Battleford 8th in Martin Pipe (2nd)
Bacardys PU in Neptune (3rd)
Castello Sforza 10th in Martin Pipe (4th)
High Bridge 9th in Supreme (6th)
Augusta Kate 6th in Albert Bartlett (7th)
Rather Be Unseated in Martin Pipe (9th)

Basically, the markets are initially made up of champion bumper horses from the previous season and they seem to fail to perform the next year. I made a point about it on the Supreme thread for the festival just gone, I will stick by it and it certainly is more profitable avoiding them than it is backing them. Hollowgraphic, a bit like Samcro, avoided the festival bumper so he could well be a decent type to follow, but Blackbow will not be seeing the colour of money at all.

 

[billymag]

Any know anything about Dento Des Obeaux, cheers