Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle 2018

[Scooby91]

Santini, very strong in the market. Has the best form and many people obviously not too bothered by the experience card.

His form is rock solid I do think he's by far the most likely winner. I really don't get the more runs the better thing as the previous winners unwimh penhill still had good wins going in to the race. The likes of munirs horse callet mad he has alot of experiance but poor form. Looks massivley under priced to me as there's not much point being battle hardened if you don't have the talent to be there at the finish.

 

[robith]

His form is rock solid I do think he's by far the most likely winner. I really don't get the more runs the better thing as the previous winners unwimh penhill still had good wins going in to the race. The likes of munirs horse callet mad he has alot of experiance but poor form. Looks massivley under priced to me as there's not much point being battle hardened if you don't have the talent to be there at the finish.

In the Wetherby's guide they pointed out that it tends to be either horses with a fair amount of experience, but that this has tended to be trumped by genuine long term class and potential when it turns up

 

[Scooby91]

In the Wetherby's guide they pointed out that it tends to be either horses with a fair amount of experience, but that this has tended to be trumped by genuine long term class and potential when it turns up

That sounds very fair. Thanks.

 

[Kevloaf]

Santini, very strong in the market. Has the best form and many people obviously not too bothered by the experience card.

His form is rock solid I do think he's by far the most likely winner. I really don't get the more runs the better thing as the previous winners unwimh penhill still had good wins going in to the race. The likes of munirs horse callet mad he has alot of experiance but poor form. Looks massivley under priced to me as there's not much point being battle hardened if you don't have the talent to be there at the finish.

UNWIMH was just winning handicaps the year he won it, certainly not comparable to Santini IMO.

I am in the fortunate position of getting paid out for being wrong as I took 12s and 10s on Santini NRNB with a view to him being significantly shorter and laying off my stake.

Not going to lay off the stake now... in the hope that he is SO classy that he bucks the trend of needing to be a proven stayer with race experience and I can get excited about a potential clash with Samcro in the RSA next year

 

[Scooby91]

I dont have room to back any more but Ennifscoffey oscar and chef des obeaux will relish the trip and ground. As will Chris's dream but hard To make all in an Albert bartlett, he would avoid the rough and tumble however.

 

[squiggsy68]

Given the week that Paul Kealy has been having with his preview tips, I've had to add Calett Mad ew, even though I don't really fancy it.

Amongst other winners he gave, his 3 best bets of the week (at the Betbright preview) were Balko, Farclas and Calett Mad.

That's without him having been all over Coo Star Sivola when it was big odds.

 

[Scooby91]

Added a small bet on ennifscoffey oscar 33/1 ew 4 places

 

[Scooby91]

We was due 1 of them. Any winners?

Cue the calls of Armadillo.

 

[Kevloaf]

I thought I had this race by the balls!..... did NOT have that.

 

[Sirbetalot]

Just looked at the winners form & I still couldn't have it as the winner...

 

[Kevloaf]

Just looked at the winners form & I still couldn't have it as the winner...

I remember them saying after he beat Count Meribel that it isn't Albvert Bartlett winning form on RUK :highly_amused:

 

[kinloch brae]

I said on the other thread that it was a very tricky punting day and the ground has made it even worse. Punters have got away with it but bookmakers now laughing. Hopefully, the chase course is better than this.

Santini has finished third but basically never at the races. From that position he was always relying on the others coming back.

My outsider, Robin Waters, travelled better than many but didn't see it out.

 

[kinloch brae]

I remember them saying after he beat Count Meribel that it isn't Albvert Bartlett winning form on RUK :highly_amused:

I backed him that day. To be fair they wouldn't have expected this sort of ground.

 

[Al Ferof]

74 pages of discussion over 12 months for a 33/1 Kilbricken Storm winner.


It’s a mugs game, isn’t it? :highly_amused:

 

[Kevloaf]

74 pages of discussion over 12 months for a 33/1 Kilbricken Storm winner.


It’s a mugs game, isn’t it? :highly_amused:

Haha, we've got to let the bookies win a couple or they'll concentrate on football and the asian handicap markets instead of the racing!

 

[Kevloaf]

Number of runs leading up to winning the Albert Bartlett

2017 - 16/1 - Penhill - 25 runs (18 flat, 7 hurdle)
2016 - 11/1 - Unowhatimeanharry - 17 runs (all hurdles)
2015 - 14/1- Martello Tower - 9 runs- (1 PTP, 2 bumper, 6 hurdles)
2014 - 33/1 - Very Wood - 7 runs - (2 PTP, 1 bumper, 4 hurdles)
2013 - 11/8f - At Fishers Cross - 8 runs (2 bumper, 6 hurdles)
2012 - 7/1 - Brindisi Breeze - 6 runs (2 PTP, 1 bumper, 3 hurdles)
2011 - 15/8f Bobs Worth - 5 runs (2 bumper, 3 hurdles)
2010 - 33/1 - Berties Dream - 15 runs (1 bumper, 14 hurdles)
2009 - 8/1 - Weapon's Amnesty 8/1 - 6 runs (2 bumper, 4 hurdle)
2008 - 9/1 - Nenuphar Collonges 9/1 - 11 runs (3 flat, 8 hurdles)
2007 - 11/8f - Wichita Lineman - 8 runs (4 flat, 4 hurdles)
2006 - 1/1f - Black Jack Kethum - 5 runs (2 bumper, 3 hurdle)
2005 - 9/1 - Moulin Riche - 15 runs (2 flat, 13 hurdle)

Average of 10.5 runs prior to the race for each winner.

2x horses have both won with 5 runs or less (Bobs Worth and Black Jack Kethum - both went off favourite)

All 4 winning favourites had 8 runs or less

Horses with double figures for number of runs have won at 9/1, 9/1, 33/1, 11/1, 16/1


Looking at the runners near the top of the market...

Cracking Smart - 7 runs (1 flat, 6 hurdles)
Santini - 3 runs (1 PTP, 2 hurdle)
Duc Des Genievres - 3 runs (3 hurdles)
Next Destination - 7 runs (1 PTP, 3 bumper, 3 hurdles)
Chef Des Obeaux - 7 runs (3 bumper, 4 hurdles)
Poetic Rhythm - 16 runs (6 PTP, 3 flat, 7 hurdles)
Red River - 4 runs (1 PTP, 3 hurdles)
Mr Whipped - 5 runs (1 PTP, 4 hurdles)
Ballyward - 4 runs (1 PTP, 1 bumper, 2 hurdles)
Calett Mad - 15 runs (8 hurdle, 7 chases)
Chris's Dream - 7 runs (1 PTP, 3 Bumper, 3 hurdle)
Dortmund Park - 6 runs (2 bumper, 4 hurdles)
Carter McKay - 9 runs (2 PTP, 4 bumper, 3 hurdles)
(bored of going down the list now.... will add more / alter this as we get closer to the decs)


Despite all of this, I am not really one to follow the trends because every race/horse is different.... Santini may be sensastional in years to come... however it would put me off that he (and DDG) are the least experienced horses in the field, when this race (much moreso than the Supreme or Ballymore) has had winners who a much more exposed (over 8+ runs)...

Kinloch Brae - you said that it is hardly conculsive that experience is a massive factor... I suppose that depends on where the line is drawn on experience....

If we use the data above for the race though, it looks like 5 runs is the cut off for how much experience you need.... but trends are there to be broken

Just to bump this "trend" and anaylsis... the winner Kilbricken Storm had 7 starts and won the Albert Bartlett on his 8th. (3x PTP and 4x Hurdles)

Interestingly, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th ALL had less than 5 starts... Ok Corral, Santini and Ballyward. I'd be happy to go on record saying I expect all 3 of those to end up hiogher rated than Kilbricken Storm... so while I think you'd be crazy to follow a trend blindly, and the fact 2nd/3rd/4th all ran well despite "not having enough experience" they all fell short... I'll certainly be looking at this trend again next year...