• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Supreme Novices 2018

ComplyOrDie said:
He was always too short for this anyway IMO. Market will adjust accordingly over the next few days. Archie had said to wait until the day to back Getabird, purely because he will drift.
Click to expand...

I think his real price is 11/4 or 3/1 so I can see him drifting out to that on the day, but I still think he'll win.. Bookies went short to take bets on the others..
 
I think everyone has done a great job at finding flaws with Getabird, preview panels have talked about him veering right in his PTP and form students have suggested that Menglai Khan might be a handicapper, possibly all contrived to create negativity ?
I can see every bookie wanting to get him on Tuesday, he could drift to 11/4, and I won't be falling off my chair in shock if he then hacked up.
Archie has been very bullish all along and he knows what goes on at Closutton....
 
Istabraq said:
Archie has been very bullish all along and he knows what goes on at Closutton....
Click to expand...

Not on a day to day basis he doesn't! Two years ago I had a lovely bet on Vautour in the Gold Cup and last year I was on Douvan good and early for the same race.
Even today I've had a message from a friend who said that 'a usually reliable source' had told him that Getabird hadn't been working well but I'd suggest that if he gets on the boat he runs. I'm on nrnb at 2/1 and I'd also suggest that that is a minimum price but it will be available on Tuesday morning somewhere. In my view, if he starts he wins but you may as well get the best price you can.
 
Very good point Istabraq!
I found myself looking for flaws... whilst trying to ignore negatives if the rest

I’ll be taken PP offer on the day, maybe back something at Big prices... but all my accas are on Gartabird
Mullins form in a race is ridiculous. I was totally against Melon has year, so much so I said he wouldn’t even place. When you watch that race back, him and the winner were miles clear of the rest!
 
ComplyOrDie said:
He was always too short for this anyway IMO. Market will adjust accordingly over the next few days. Archie had said to wait until the day to back Getabird, purely because he will drift.
Click to expand...

Sirbetalot said:
I think his real price is 11/4 or 3/1 so I can see him drifting out to that on the day, but I still think he'll win.. Bookies went short to take bets on the others..
Click to expand...

Istabraq said:
I think everyone has done a great job at finding flaws with Getabird, preview panels have talked about him veering right in his PTP and form students have suggested that Menglai Khan might be a handicapper, possibly all contrived to create negativity ?
I can see every bookie wanting to get him on Tuesday, he could drift to 11/4, and I won't be falling off my chair in shock if he then hacked up.
Archie has been very bullish all along and he knows what goes on at Closutton....
Click to expand...

My guess would be 11/4 SP.

Lack of really obvious challenger is the reason he won't be bigger...

but a drift between now and the day I won't take as a negative.

I will have a look the night before and in the morning and decide what to do with all of the offers I can get my hands on! At the moment, if Getabird does get to near 3/1 that'd appeal more than anything else to use every offer possible...
 
If there was one horse I wanted the ground to dry out for it would have been Paloma Blue. On the usual first day ground I was pretty hopeful he could have won this but on the very likely soft I doubt he will better than fifth or sixth. I hope I am wrong. Consequently, I have used the Sky offer to back Minds Eye. He got a shocking ride last time and I would definitely put a line through that. I am not sure that his previous handicap form in big fields is a million miles away. Similarly, to Paloma Blue a strong pace would help and soft ground should be a positive rather than a problem. Hopefully, they will book a jock able to switch him off, perhaps someone in the O'Regan style?
 
Western Ryder re-routed here...
 
Dickie rides, says he’s the forgotten horse, schooled in the week and jumped brilliant.
Expecting a big run....
 
Istabraq said:
Dickie rides, says he’s the forgotten horse, schooled in the week and jumped brilliant.
Expecting a big run....
Click to expand...

Is that due to the ground Ista?

I can see why he has been forgotten in all honesty. I have a little bit at 55/1 on the exchanges that I thought was a non runner that now isn't though, so I can't complain :p
 
kinloch brae said:
If there was one horse I wanted the ground to dry out for it would have been Paloma Blue. On the usual first day ground I was pretty hopeful he could have won this but on the very likely soft I doubt he will better than fifth or sixth. I hope I am wrong. Consequently, I have used the Sky offer to back Minds Eye. He got a shocking ride last time and I would definitely put a line through that. I am not sure that his previous handicap form in big fields is a million miles away. Similarly, to Paloma Blue a strong pace would help and soft ground should be a positive rather than a problem. Hopefully, they will book a jock able to switch him off, perhaps someone in the O'Regan style?
Click to expand...

Kevin Blake makes a case for Minds Eye too KB, so you might be on to one at a big price!

I like Paloma Blue but think your concerns are right regarding likely ground. Doesn't help
 
Harry Drew earlier said MoonRacer is his dads best chance of a winner so not the most positive news
 
Kevloaf said:
Kevin Blake makes a case for Minds Eye too KB, so you might be on to one at a big price!

I like Paloma Blue but think your concerns are right regarding likely ground. Doesn't help
Click to expand...

Of all the races at the Festival this is easily my worst. I keep telling myself it is going change but I can't ever remember backing the winner.
 
Kevloaf said:
Is that due to the ground Ista?

I can see why he has been forgotten in all honesty. I have a little bit at 55/1 on the exchanges that I thought was a non runner that now isn't though, so I can't complain :p
Click to expand...

They would have prefered the Ballymore but with more rain forecast Wed they were just a bit concerned that a slog over 2m5f wouldn’t suit, they say the horse has a decent turn of foot and can quicken off a decent pace, a deep ground Ballymore and that probably wouldn’t happen.
Weak renewal anything can happen, I’ll be interested in place markets on the day...
 
Istabraq said:
They would have prefered the Ballymore but with more rain forecast Wed they were just a bit concerned that a slog over 2m5f wouldn’t suit, they say the horse has a decent turn of foot and can quicken off a decent pace, a deep ground Ballymore and that probably wouldn’t happen.
Weak renewal anything can happen, I’ll be interested in place markets on the day...
Click to expand...

Cheers Ista. One i'll consider with the abundance of money back offers
 
I see BetBright (the connected Ricci bookmaker) don't want to lay Getabird, currently 5/4 and clearly not for wanting to take punters money on him, again more an observation than anything else, but I am getting positive vibes for him, just general chit chat really, nothing concrete, I'm hopeful anyway.
 
Sirbetalot said:
Fingers crossed, not sure what people want in here:

Me

Getabird Supreme

Samcro Bally
Click to expand...

The same for me ideally Sir, although I did get a decent chunk on Samcro @14's for the Supreme
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom