charlie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. March 2021)
Final Furlong At The Races Cheltenham Festival Preview Night 2018 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30sPIjrpBQI
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Cheltenham Preview Nights 2018
- Thread starter jonthehammer
- Start date
punterorplonker
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Thursday 8 March - Rawdon Cricket Club
Venue: Rawdon Cricket Club, 28 Larkfield Rd, Rawdon, Leeds LS19 6DZ
Panel: Danny Cook, Martin Dixon, Jonathan Doidge
Cost: £10. Purchase tickets from the bar before the event or contact Jonathan Doidge or James Doidge to secure your ticket.
Thursday 8 March - London Racing Club: Kensington, London
Venue: Kensington Forum (Holiday Inn), 97 Cromwell Rd, Kensington, London SW7 4DN
Start time: 7pm - 10pm
Panel: Lee Mottershead, Phil Smith, Lydia Hislop, Matt Tombs, Luke Tarr (Star Sports).
Cost and Booking: £8 LRC members, £15 non-members. Buy on the door, no pre bookings.
Thursday 8 March - Morden, London
Venue: Ganleys Irish Bar, 43-47 London Road, Morden, SM4 5HP
Start time: 7pm
Panel: Mick Fitzgerald, Richard Johnson, Noel Fehily, Luke Harvey, Paul Kealy, Joe Chambers
Cost: Free - no ticket required
Sponsored by: Starsports
Thursday 8 March - Liverpool
Venue: The Railway Pub, 18 Tithe Barn Street, Liverpool, L2 2DT
Start time: 6.30pm
Panel: Joe Nordoff, Tom Bellamy, Jamie Bargary, Willy Twiston Davies, Bobby Beevers, Luke Tarr, Ryan Hatch, Vanessa Ryle, John Neild
Cost and booking: £10 including Scouse Supper. Contact 07811 268337, peter@transformsuk.com
In aid of: Stamp out Suicide
Sponsored by: Star Sports
Thursday 8 March - Warwick
Venue: Warwick Racecourse, Hampton Street, Warwick, Warwickshire. CV34 6HN
Start time: 6.30pm
Panel: Alex Steedman. Gary Wiltshire, Dan Skelton, Harry Skelton, Olly Murphy, Tom Earl
Cost and booking: £15 including homemade curry, 188Bet preview pack (Cheltenham Guide, £10 free bet voucher). Call 01926 405560 or go to warwickracecourse.co.uk
Sponsors: 188Bet
KingSprinterSacre
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the 188 one was streamed, videos up on their facebook.
Basically - Olly Murphy thinks Samcro is Christ. Liked Tiger Roll
OTBS not pleasing Nicky according to Harry Skelton. Works tomorrow and they will decide after that if he runs
Dan Skelton likes their Fred Winter horse. Couldn't have Douvan
Basically - Olly Murphy thinks Samcro is Christ. Liked Tiger Roll
OTBS not pleasing Nicky according to Harry Skelton. Works tomorrow and they will decide after that if he runs
Dan Skelton likes their Fred Winter horse. Couldn't have Douvan
Last edited:
the 188 one was streamed, videos up on their facebook.
Basically - Olly Murphy thinks Samcro is Christ. Liked Tiger Roll
OTBS not pleasing Nicky according to Harry Skelton. Works tomorrow and they will decide after that if he runs
Dan Skelton likes their Fred Winter horse. Couldn't have Douvan
Brian Hughes said Mick Fitz had told him that OTBS work had been awful at Kempton the other week.
FaugheenTheMachine
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Faugheen_Machine
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There isn't much money around in the market so it might be hard to tell. There is only £40 waiting to back OTBS atm.
kinloch brae
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Why has this only just emerged? Weren't there any reporters there for the gallop? If it was that shocking wouldn't they have noticed and wouldn't it have drifted immediately? Henderson hasn't said anything, in fact he was quoted as saying ALL the horses worked well.
If he misses the race having already missed the Challow his second half of the season will have been a total mess.
I would take the comments made at the Warwick preview last night with a pinch of salt. I was there last night, though I did leave at the interval as it was pretty average stuff to be honest. During the first half I was there, it just seemed to lack any level of engagement and a few odd comments made in general . Harry Skelton did drop those comments about On the Blind Side not running, but I cant help think he may have been getting a little confused to be honest. It just looked like a flippant comment made without being sure he was actually right.
Dan Skelton comes across as a decent bloke, but I find it a little disrespectful to be on a panel and sat there texting away on your phone, even when a question is being directed at him. Olly Murphy was decent value for the half I did see.
Overall though, I would not get too hung up on the OTBS comments in general, they just came across as a bit wishy-washy to be honest and not sure their is much credence in them.
Dan Skelton comes across as a decent bloke, but I find it a little disrespectful to be on a panel and sat there texting away on your phone, even when a question is being directed at him. Olly Murphy was decent value for the half I did see.
Overall though, I would not get too hung up on the OTBS comments in general, they just came across as a bit wishy-washy to be honest and not sure their is much credence in them.
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
the 188 one was streamed, videos up on their facebook.
Basically - Olly Murphy thinks Samcro is Christ. Liked Tiger Roll
OTBS not pleasing Nicky according to Harry Skelton. Works tomorrow and they will decide after that if he runs
Dan Skelton likes their Fred Winter horse. Couldn't have Douvan
I'm sure someone somewhere had said this previous to Skelton, possibly even a few days ago, but I'd have to go through the threads which I don't have time to right now, but it would be no surprise to me, as I'm adamant I saw this somewhere else.
Mick Fitz playing the game. Preview nights perfect for connections to yards to feed out false info
I was at the Warwick preview last night and I thought Harry Skelton was quite clear about OTBS. Dan Skelton said that he was the only horse which could possibly get near Samcr and Harry interrupted and said he doesn't think he runs. And then a few sentences later said again he heard the vibes were not good for the horse.
I know that is not definitely ruling him out, but to me it didn't seem confused or flippant.
I know that is not definitely ruling him out, but to me it didn't seem confused or flippant.
Also, Gary wiltshire, who was actually surprisingly alright mentioned Scrafton in the second at sandown today as possibly one they thought would run well. Don't know if that has been mentioned. He said it would shorten today and I think suggested it building a bank for next week.
Off topic I guess but I thought I would mention it. Dan Skelton also wouldn't confirm jockey booking for emboli in the Fred winter but said if the person he thinks will take the ride does take the ride the price will shorten lots
Off topic I guess but I thought I would mention it. Dan Skelton also wouldn't confirm jockey booking for emboli in the Fred winter but said if the person he thinks will take the ride does take the ride the price will shorten lots
This was one of the odd discussions on the night for me. I get people think the world of Samcro and some don't think it can get beat, but I don't see how anyone can not be impressed by Next Destination in some capacity. The horse never even got a name check when discussing this race, they only talked about OTBS where I thought Harry lacked any conviction in what he said and he threw a mention to Red River who is not even meant to be turning up in this. How you can discuss a race and not even mention the second favourite who has done nothing wrong was just bizarre to me.
Also, not sure if i misheard this , but when talking about the Arkle, I am sure Harry said he was strong on Footpad as its beaten Petit Mouchoir 3 times and no reason why it should reverse that! At times, I was thinking he left his head in the car after the long journey back from Carlisle.
qzy
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London Racing Club Cheltenham Festival 2018 Preview Night Notes
09/03/2018//by Matt Bisogno
It was to a packed house at London's Kensington Forum that a star-studded cast delivered their verdicts on the impending Cheltenham Festival. With no punches pulled, opinions were as strong as they were plentiful. What follows is a summary of the action...
Panel: Lee Mottershead, Racing Post senior correspondent (host); Phil Smith, BHA head of handicapping; Matt Tombs, author Cheltenham Festival Trends guide; Lydia Hislop, freelance writer/broadcaster RUK; and, Luke Tarr, Starsports bookmaker.
Tuesday
Supreme Novices' Hurdle
MT: Getabird may drift from his current price. Not worth the price on form. Stablemate Sharjah is worth a look on quicker ground.
LT: Getabird a horrendous price. 16/1 First Flow could be a bit of value.
LH: Summerville Boy, who beat Kalashnikov, is twice the price; and First Flow quite likely to shorten from his current odds.
PS: Kalashnikov top rated currently on 154, Getabird 152
Arkle Chase
LH: Not touching the race. Footpad a legitimate favourite, but Saint Calvados may be the best bet. (But no bet!)
MT: Petit Mouchoir, just, but reasons for concern, including how warm he gets before some of his races (including at the Festival last year)
LT: No star going in here, hopefully one comes out of it. Big Saint Calvados fan but the price has gone now.
PS: 170, 169, 168 recent Arkle winners' season ending figures. Footpad currently 162, Saint Calvados 160, Petit Mouchoir 157. Which of these can improve to the mid- to high 160's?
CHAMPION HURDLE
PS: Have to be impressed with what Buveur d'Air has done. 169 currently, which is an average Champion Hurdle figure, but he's been coasting around untested, and could get to the mid-170's. Faugheen was 176 a year ago but nothing like that this term. Ran to 167 on first/best run of the season.
MT: Lay Yorkhill for a place. Melon could be the each way play.
LH: Not as good as he was but at the prices Faugheen is one of only two class horses in the race, and he's 6/1.
LT: Buveur d'Air is much the best. Faugheen not an e/w proposition, but win only ("he either wins, or you only do your money once - don't do it twice"). There has been money for Wicklow Brave e/w and without the favourite.
Mares' Hurdle
LH: Benie Des Dieux outstandingly the number one Mullins horse in the race.
Best Backed / other thoughts on Tuesday
LT: Coo Star Sivola strong at around 8/1 for the Ultima. Benie Des Dieux in the Mares' Hurdle, and Jury Duty in the National Hunt Chase have also seen support.
MT: Any Second Now in the Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase is the best handicap bet of the day.
PS: In the handicaps generally, look for horses that have been running over a different trip, perhaps on different ground, and in chases look for those with a higher hurdle rating than their current chase mark.
**
Wednesday
Ballymore Novices' Hurdle
LT: Samcro very short on what he's actually done. Black Op looks a good each way bet.
MT: Speed horses do well in this race. Samcro fits in that context but Black Op is a good option also at a nice price.
PS: Samcro 155 On The Blind Side 153 Black Op 150 Next Destination 150 currently. All four horses are already at the level needed to win an average renewal. Perhaps Black Op is the one at the prices.
LH: On The Blind Side may have worked poorly (if you listen to preview night 'yack'). Duc Des Genievres was closing on Samcro last time and there may not be much between them. Black Op could run well. Vision Des Flos is the horse expected to shorten in the market for this race.
RSA Chase
LT: Solid favourite in Presenting Percy
LH: Presenting Percy an unexciting price but a worthy favourite.
MT: Flogas the key trial. Monalee is a good horse but he's been keen in his races. Al Boum Photo will get Ruby Walsh on top in this and looks a knocking each way bet at 10/1.
PS: A decent race this year which will probably take a 160+ performance to win. Presenting Percy currently top on 158, Monalee 155.
CHAMPION CHASE
PS: Altior 174, Douvan 174, Min 167, Politologue 163, Special Tiara 160. Highly questionable whether Douvan can get close to that mark.
MT: Not worried about the 'bounce' with Altior. He only had a minor wind operation. There are no worries about him and he looks hard to oppose. But the market has this sewn up.
LH: Don't believe Douvan will run. Min a different (better) horse when not leading. Altior did run below his best despite winning in the Arkle last year. Would still back Min at 5/2 (but already backed/advised it at 8/1).
LT: Douvan has no chance of running at the Festival! Altior is the best horse and think he'll win. Charbel 20/1 e/w NRNB interesting (he may run in the Grand Annual).
Cross Country Chase
MT: Cause Of Causes NAP of the week at 3/1
LH: Tiger Roll much the best backed, 9/1 into 5/1.
PS: The Last Samuri is top rated, but Tiger Roll had a very similar 'never in it' prep this year to Cause Of Cause's last year for the same connections. Look at this race as a decent trial for the Grand National.
Other Wednesday thoughts
LH: Look out for either Malaya or Act Of Valour in the Fred Winter (both Paul Nicholls)
**
Thursday
RYANAIR CHASE
MT: 5/1 Douvan NRNB a great bet. Much shorter if he runs, which he probably won't. Waiting Patiently has a right chance if he shows up.
PS: Waiting Patiently 170, Un De Sceaux 167.
LT: Love this race. Don't think Waiting Patiently, Min or Douvan will run. Balko Des Flos is interesting e/w.
LH: Cue Card is still Grade 1 class. Waiting Patiently might be stretched if soft, Yorkhill would be interesting if showing up here. The race baffles me. Wait for the day of race market.
STAYERS' HURDLE
LH: Yanworth is opposable at the price. Sam Spinner should be favourite over Supersundae, and might get an easy lead. Supersundae stamina an unknown rather than a negative, but he's short enough at the prices. The World's End is too big a price if it's a sound surface.
PS: A terrible renewal. Supersundae 164 Sam Spinner 164 Yanworth 163 Unowhatimeanharry 163 The New One 161 La Bague Au Roi. It normally takes a near 170 performance to win. Unowhatimeanharry has run to 161 and is working really well apparently.
MT: Sam Spinner "much the most likely winner". 9/2 a really good bet.
LT: unowhatimeanharry is the wrong price.
Other Thursday action
PS: Look to the novices in the Brown Advisory Plate.
MT: Monalee may switch to the JLT, which would make 7/2 NRNB a good bet.
LH: Mall Dini in the Kim Muir.
**
GOLD CUP
PS: Might Bite 169 but there are lots within three or four pounds of each other. "I think Might Bite is much better than these". Not sure Killultagh Vic would have beaten Edwulf if not falling last time. 8/1 vs 20/1 looks wrong.
MT: Might Bite a great price at 7/2. The value in this race is with the top of the market normally: 15 of the last 17 winners came from the top three in the betting; 16/17 were 8/1 or shorter.
LH: Djakadam is looking to replicate The Fellow's form figures in the race of 2241 and is over-priced (Lydia an infamously big Djakadam fan!). Native River is sold e/w. Not sure Road To Respect will stay and/or like soft ground. Killultagh Vic's jumping is "appalling". Our Duke is the 'now' horse but makes mistakes with his jumping, too.
Triumph Hurdle
MT: Most impressed by Redicean, may challenge for favouritism.
LT: No idea. This is an impossible race.
LH: No strong view. Apple's Shakira looks vulnerable but there are lots of alternatives.
PS: Redicean is 149, but Apple's Shakira 153 with the mares' allowance.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
LH: Thanks to Tony Keenan for pointing out that lots of experience in this race is a good thing. Chef Des Obeaux and Poetic Rhythm, and perhaps Callett Mad, are the sort that win.
PS: Santini 150 but lots on similar ratings.
MT: Demand a price in a race that throws up shocks. Callett Mad a player.
Other Friday action
LH: Expect improvement from Diego Du Charmil in the Grand Annual.
MT: Deal d'Estruval for either the County Hurdle or the Martin Pipe NRNB. Dortmund Park in the Martin Pipe if quick ground, on which he should improve.
PS: Burning Ambition is top rated in the Foxhunters'.
**
Best Bets
LH: Poetic Rhythm (Albert Bartlett) and/or Diego Du Charmil (Grand Annual)
MT: Sam Spinner in the Stayers' Hurdle
PS: An each way double on Definitly Red in the Gold Cup and Definitly Red in the Grand National (*tongue was in cheek a little here, I suspect).
09/03/2018//by Matt Bisogno
It was to a packed house at London's Kensington Forum that a star-studded cast delivered their verdicts on the impending Cheltenham Festival. With no punches pulled, opinions were as strong as they were plentiful. What follows is a summary of the action...
Panel: Lee Mottershead, Racing Post senior correspondent (host); Phil Smith, BHA head of handicapping; Matt Tombs, author Cheltenham Festival Trends guide; Lydia Hislop, freelance writer/broadcaster RUK; and, Luke Tarr, Starsports bookmaker.
Tuesday
Supreme Novices' Hurdle
MT: Getabird may drift from his current price. Not worth the price on form. Stablemate Sharjah is worth a look on quicker ground.
LT: Getabird a horrendous price. 16/1 First Flow could be a bit of value.
LH: Summerville Boy, who beat Kalashnikov, is twice the price; and First Flow quite likely to shorten from his current odds.
PS: Kalashnikov top rated currently on 154, Getabird 152
Arkle Chase
LH: Not touching the race. Footpad a legitimate favourite, but Saint Calvados may be the best bet. (But no bet!)
MT: Petit Mouchoir, just, but reasons for concern, including how warm he gets before some of his races (including at the Festival last year)
LT: No star going in here, hopefully one comes out of it. Big Saint Calvados fan but the price has gone now.
PS: 170, 169, 168 recent Arkle winners' season ending figures. Footpad currently 162, Saint Calvados 160, Petit Mouchoir 157. Which of these can improve to the mid- to high 160's?
CHAMPION HURDLE
PS: Have to be impressed with what Buveur d'Air has done. 169 currently, which is an average Champion Hurdle figure, but he's been coasting around untested, and could get to the mid-170's. Faugheen was 176 a year ago but nothing like that this term. Ran to 167 on first/best run of the season.
MT: Lay Yorkhill for a place. Melon could be the each way play.
LH: Not as good as he was but at the prices Faugheen is one of only two class horses in the race, and he's 6/1.
LT: Buveur d'Air is much the best. Faugheen not an e/w proposition, but win only ("he either wins, or you only do your money once - don't do it twice"). There has been money for Wicklow Brave e/w and without the favourite.
Mares' Hurdle
LH: Benie Des Dieux outstandingly the number one Mullins horse in the race.
Best Backed / other thoughts on Tuesday
LT: Coo Star Sivola strong at around 8/1 for the Ultima. Benie Des Dieux in the Mares' Hurdle, and Jury Duty in the National Hunt Chase have also seen support.
MT: Any Second Now in the Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase is the best handicap bet of the day.
PS: In the handicaps generally, look for horses that have been running over a different trip, perhaps on different ground, and in chases look for those with a higher hurdle rating than their current chase mark.
**
Wednesday
Ballymore Novices' Hurdle
LT: Samcro very short on what he's actually done. Black Op looks a good each way bet.
MT: Speed horses do well in this race. Samcro fits in that context but Black Op is a good option also at a nice price.
PS: Samcro 155 On The Blind Side 153 Black Op 150 Next Destination 150 currently. All four horses are already at the level needed to win an average renewal. Perhaps Black Op is the one at the prices.
LH: On The Blind Side may have worked poorly (if you listen to preview night 'yack'). Duc Des Genievres was closing on Samcro last time and there may not be much between them. Black Op could run well. Vision Des Flos is the horse expected to shorten in the market for this race.
RSA Chase
LT: Solid favourite in Presenting Percy
LH: Presenting Percy an unexciting price but a worthy favourite.
MT: Flogas the key trial. Monalee is a good horse but he's been keen in his races. Al Boum Photo will get Ruby Walsh on top in this and looks a knocking each way bet at 10/1.
PS: A decent race this year which will probably take a 160+ performance to win. Presenting Percy currently top on 158, Monalee 155.
CHAMPION CHASE
PS: Altior 174, Douvan 174, Min 167, Politologue 163, Special Tiara 160. Highly questionable whether Douvan can get close to that mark.
MT: Not worried about the 'bounce' with Altior. He only had a minor wind operation. There are no worries about him and he looks hard to oppose. But the market has this sewn up.
LH: Don't believe Douvan will run. Min a different (better) horse when not leading. Altior did run below his best despite winning in the Arkle last year. Would still back Min at 5/2 (but already backed/advised it at 8/1).
LT: Douvan has no chance of running at the Festival! Altior is the best horse and think he'll win. Charbel 20/1 e/w NRNB interesting (he may run in the Grand Annual).
Cross Country Chase
MT: Cause Of Causes NAP of the week at 3/1
LH: Tiger Roll much the best backed, 9/1 into 5/1.
PS: The Last Samuri is top rated, but Tiger Roll had a very similar 'never in it' prep this year to Cause Of Cause's last year for the same connections. Look at this race as a decent trial for the Grand National.
Other Wednesday thoughts
LH: Look out for either Malaya or Act Of Valour in the Fred Winter (both Paul Nicholls)
**
Thursday
RYANAIR CHASE
MT: 5/1 Douvan NRNB a great bet. Much shorter if he runs, which he probably won't. Waiting Patiently has a right chance if he shows up.
PS: Waiting Patiently 170, Un De Sceaux 167.
LT: Love this race. Don't think Waiting Patiently, Min or Douvan will run. Balko Des Flos is interesting e/w.
LH: Cue Card is still Grade 1 class. Waiting Patiently might be stretched if soft, Yorkhill would be interesting if showing up here. The race baffles me. Wait for the day of race market.
STAYERS' HURDLE
LH: Yanworth is opposable at the price. Sam Spinner should be favourite over Supersundae, and might get an easy lead. Supersundae stamina an unknown rather than a negative, but he's short enough at the prices. The World's End is too big a price if it's a sound surface.
PS: A terrible renewal. Supersundae 164 Sam Spinner 164 Yanworth 163 Unowhatimeanharry 163 The New One 161 La Bague Au Roi. It normally takes a near 170 performance to win. Unowhatimeanharry has run to 161 and is working really well apparently.
MT: Sam Spinner "much the most likely winner". 9/2 a really good bet.
LT: unowhatimeanharry is the wrong price.
Other Thursday action
PS: Look to the novices in the Brown Advisory Plate.
MT: Monalee may switch to the JLT, which would make 7/2 NRNB a good bet.
LH: Mall Dini in the Kim Muir.
**
GOLD CUP
PS: Might Bite 169 but there are lots within three or four pounds of each other. "I think Might Bite is much better than these". Not sure Killultagh Vic would have beaten Edwulf if not falling last time. 8/1 vs 20/1 looks wrong.
MT: Might Bite a great price at 7/2. The value in this race is with the top of the market normally: 15 of the last 17 winners came from the top three in the betting; 16/17 were 8/1 or shorter.
LH: Djakadam is looking to replicate The Fellow's form figures in the race of 2241 and is over-priced (Lydia an infamously big Djakadam fan!). Native River is sold e/w. Not sure Road To Respect will stay and/or like soft ground. Killultagh Vic's jumping is "appalling". Our Duke is the 'now' horse but makes mistakes with his jumping, too.
Triumph Hurdle
MT: Most impressed by Redicean, may challenge for favouritism.
LT: No idea. This is an impossible race.
LH: No strong view. Apple's Shakira looks vulnerable but there are lots of alternatives.
PS: Redicean is 149, but Apple's Shakira 153 with the mares' allowance.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
LH: Thanks to Tony Keenan for pointing out that lots of experience in this race is a good thing. Chef Des Obeaux and Poetic Rhythm, and perhaps Callett Mad, are the sort that win.
PS: Santini 150 but lots on similar ratings.
MT: Demand a price in a race that throws up shocks. Callett Mad a player.
Other Friday action
LH: Expect improvement from Diego Du Charmil in the Grand Annual.
MT: Deal d'Estruval for either the County Hurdle or the Martin Pipe NRNB. Dortmund Park in the Martin Pipe if quick ground, on which he should improve.
PS: Burning Ambition is top rated in the Foxhunters'.
**
Best Bets
LH: Poetic Rhythm (Albert Bartlett) and/or Diego Du Charmil (Grand Annual)
MT: Sam Spinner in the Stayers' Hurdle
PS: An each way double on Definitly Red in the Gold Cup and Definitly Red in the Grand National (*tongue was in cheek a little here, I suspect).