I know he's 10 and I do actually quite like Supasundae & Yanworth but I can't help thinking there not exactly proven dour stayers just yet? The horses behind them over 3 miles when they were 1st/2nd aren't exactly top class and neither are the ones behind Supasundae when second twice to Apples. Sam Spinner is an unknown for me but I have a feeling he won't be able to pull something like his last race off again, especially not at Cheltenham, plus when would L'ami Serge realistically beat Harry into 3rd like that day usually so was not running to his mark?
I thought Harry seemed very consistent for his age bar a blip or two. He could just well stay them into the ground with a bit of luck IMO.
Welcome CB.
I don't think UNWIMH is a bad shout at a double figure price...
I do however think
Sam Spinner has him held. I don't think there was an element of fluke about his win last time.
In the Long Walk Hurdle the ground was good to soft, which if we assume it is for the festival on the Thursday, would give me hope that he has the measure of L'ami and UNWIMH again. I don't see why they'd reverse the form. With L'ami it is his attitude and with UNWIMH (who went off 6/4f) I don't think there were any excuses either.
If it is soft (which I personally don't think it will be, but for the sake of arguement).... his chance would be improved because it wouldn't help any of his main rivals as much as him. He bolted up on Heavy at Haydock (which is as bad as you can get) by 17L in a handicap.
I don't like the cliche about "if he was trained by X or Y he'd be shorter".... because although that is true, that is for a decent reason. The point is though for me, that that is factored in to his price and although they're all available at 5/1... I think his FORM is better than anything elses.
Supasundae over 3m has been beaten, and won a 2m race last time. Whether you like that or not (I do), it is NOT better form than Sam Spinner has this season.
Yanworth hasn't run over 3m this season or over hurdles yet... schooling is all well and good, but that isn't an ideal prep in anyones book. He might be good enough, but 5s is short compared to a horse who has the form in the book over hurdles and the trip this season. I think Supasundae and YAnworth are favs because of their novice hurdle clash at Aintree.
It could be argued Yanworth and Supasundae don't fully stay, as beating Snow Falcon in that race doesn't prove it, however that isn't an angle I'd be going down personally. I just think Sam Spinner IS undoubtably proven stayer over 3m.
Looking at the next few in the betting, Penhill (no runs this season, if he wins fair play - complete unknown, but has INCREDIBLE adversity to overcome, including winning first time out and being an Albert Bartlett winner)
UNWIMH - held on the Ascot run.
L'ami Serge - held on the Ascot run (Absolutely no reason to be confident he'd get his head in front at all) if he was 12/1 and SS was 2/1 I could see it as a possible value bet, but 5/1 is still a very backable price.
Bacardys - rubbish prep, no proof he gets 3m - wouldn't be the worlds biggest shock but I'd take Sam Spinner over him still.
The major doubt is going to be the Cheltenham form - no arguement for that. If he'd run inwon the Cleeve rather than the Long Walk hurdle he'd be a 2/1 shot. I think the price is fair still at 5/1
I'm not going through the whole list... there are loads with chances and I've backed pretty much all of them :highly_amused: - but now we're getting close it is time to make some decisions on who I think will win and manipulate my book accordingly.
I feel like Sam Spinner is the best value in this race, and am quite happy to back him again at 5/1. (Also going to put this in the Thursday yankee thread to try and not have to back L'ami Serge!)
