National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2018

[Scooby91]

Scooby,with that betting,are you thinking Presenting Percy does not go RSA ?

No doubt he does. But he should be 10/1 imo. He's done little, hes avoided the best graded novice chases. He would have been found wanting If He ran in the flogas. I don't see any way he wins the rsa through being a superior horse . And I'm more than happy to back strongly accordingly.
He might scrape a place at best imo.

He's my lay of the week 100%.
However much I win on day 1 is going all on the lay side of presenting percy.

 

[Liammet]

No doubt he does. But he should be 10/1 imo. He's done little, hes avoided the best graded novice chases. He would have been found wanting If He ran in the flogas. I don't see any way he wins the rsa through being a superior horse . And I'm more than happy to back strongly accordingly.
He might scrape a place at best imo.

He's my lay of the week 100%.
However much I win on day 1 is going all on the lay side of presenting percy.

Admire you for backing up your strong opinion
However,I am of the opposite view
At least one of us will be happy after the race

 

[ComplyOrDie]

No doubt he does. But he should be 10/1 imo. He's done little, hes avoided the best graded novice chases. He would have been found wanting If He ran in the flogas. I don't see any way he wins the rsa through being a superior horse . And I'm more than happy to back strongly accordingly.
He might scrape a place at best imo.

He's my lay of the week 100%.
However much I win on day 1 is going all on the lay side of presenting percy.

Definitely won't be as brave as you, but can 100% see him being overturned for sure.

 

[charlie]

No doubt he does. But he should be 10/1 imo. He's done little, hes avoided the best graded novice chases. He would have been found wanting If He ran in the flogas. I don't see any way he wins the rsa through being a superior horse . And I'm more than happy to back strongly accordingly.
He might scrape a place at best imo.

He's my lay of the week 100%.
However much I win on day 1 is going all on the lay side of presenting percy.

I completely agree. Has had a really bizarre prep and run in two good chases and been beaten in both of them. Not for me at all.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Surely to god the Tizzard's are looking at this race now and seeing it is eminently winnable for EE. Bit of support in the market today which is good to see. Once you take PP and IO out of this market, and with Dounikos potentially re-routing to the RSA, the horse would probably be 3/1 fav.

And surely that will help them find a half decent jock.

 

[Bigfish]

I completely agree. Has had a really bizarre prep and run in two good chases and been beaten in both of them. Not for me at all.

I can't have that. PP has the best form going . He ran in the Red Mills GD.2 CH. Not a novice race but he did receive the allowance for his novice status. He beat two horses both rated OR 156 by 17 lengths . A Toi Phil was in form and had run to his mark going into the race. His rating by my reckoning should be 168. He's clear by 8L. No contest .

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I must admit I dont understand the negativity towards PP either.

Not saying Im certain he will win, but I respect him greatly. Our Duke is a very good horse and I could see him placing in the Gold Cup. Which will make PP's run last time look quite impressive for a novice, certainly in the context of the RSA field.

 

[Bigfish]

Simples isn't it? CCM. He'll stay all day as well as will Our Duke in the Gold Cup.

 

[kinloch brae]

I must admit I dont understand the negativity towards PP either.

Not saying Im certain he will win, but I respect him greatly. Our Duke is a very good horse and I could see him placing in the Gold Cup. Which will make PP's run last time look quite impressive for a novice, certainly in the context of the RSA field.

I suspect a lot of the negativity on here, not just about this horse, is more a case of people missing a price about a horse and then trying to convince themselves that they haven't missed a winner. I argued strongly that the prep race wasn't a good idea (appearing to be in a minority of one at the time) but clearly he still has every chance. If we do get it more than hopeful better ground will help his cause.

 

[Robbante]

Yeah I’m softening on being so against PP. I think his price has been ludicrous all along, but if there’s give in the ground you’re going to need to be a real stayer to win the RSA. Looking at the opposition and I’m not sure how many are guaranteed to be running on up the hill. If good ground then I think something will outpace and outclass him, but it’s looking increasingly likely there will be some soft in the going description

 

[Robbante]

I suspect a lot of the negativity on here, not just about this horse, is more a case of people missing a price about a horse and then trying to convince themselves that they haven't missed a winner. I argued strongly that the prep race wasn't a good idea (appearing to be in a minority of one at the time) but clearly he still has every chance. If we do get it more than hopeful better ground will help his cause.

I disagree with that. I think better ground aids the cause of his opposition. Monalee is a better class of horse than Presenting Percy in the long term I’ve no doubt of that, and think he’d stay and outpace him over 3 miles on good ground. Soft ground will be a leveller and favour the stayers

 

[charlie]

I can't have that. PP has the best form going . He ran in the Red Mills GD.2 CH. Not a novice race but he did receive the allowance for his novice status. He beat two horses both rated OR 156 by 17 lengths . A Toi Phil was in form and had run to his mark going into the race. His rating by my reckoning should be 168. He's clear by 8L. No contest .

His prep has been bizarre (which is admittedly up for interpretation) but he has run in two good chases and been beaten in both of them. You reckon PP should be rated 168? Seriously?

 

[Bigfish]

Yes I am. RPR has used his IRE novice chase ratings scale when assessing the Red mills . He has rated Presenting Percy 160. What rating has Monalee got for his Flogas win.? 156 was it I think I can remember. Even using his flawed figures he has PP clear.

 

[Scooby91]

I suspect a lot of the negativity on here, not just about this horse, is more a case of people missing a price about a horse and then trying to convince themselves that they haven't missed a winner. I argued strongly that the prep race wasn't a good idea (appearing to be in a minority of one at the time) but clearly he still has every chance. If we do get it more than hopeful better ground will help his cause.

I guarantee it's not because iv missed a price. I could have backed him any time I wanted to.
If he suddenly goes 10/1 now, I 100% would have no interest in backing PP.

By all means if anyone fancies pp back him all you want.

I literally give him no chance in the rsa. And I'm willing to back that up with my own pocket.

We're on the wrong thread to continue this discussion.

 

[charlie]

I guarantee it's not because iv missed a price. I could have backed him any time I wanted to.
If he suddenly goes 10/1 now, I 100% would have no interest in backing PP.

By all means if anyone fancies pp back him all you want.

I literally give him no chance in the rsa. And I'm willing to back that up with my own pocket.

We're on the wrong thread to continue this discussion.

Amen.

Back to the 4 miler....

 

[Scooby91]

His prep has been bizarre (which is admittedly up for interpretation) but he has run in two good chases and been beaten in both of them. You reckon PP should be rated 168? Seriously?

168 :highly_amused: :highly_amused:.

Change to the rsa thread.

 

[Fatjockey69]

Elegant escape been well backed for 4 miler in last 24 hours

 

[jono]

The main thing i'd be taking away from Elliott's desire and and hope for getting Dounikos to run here is that it would be a negative for both Jury Duty and Fagan. The latter 2 runners would almost certainly have Jamie Codd and Lisa O'Neill onboard so they couldn't have a better jockey onboard for their chances.

So if he feels the need to bring Dounikos into the race when he hasn't exactly got strength in depth in the RSA, that gives me some concern on their chances

 

[BigChaang]

The main thing i'd be taking away from Elliott's desire and and hope for getting Dounikos to run here is that it would be a negative for both Jury Duty and Fagan. The latter 2 runners would almost certainly have Jamie Codd and Lisa O'Neill onboard so they couldn't have a better jockey onboard for their chances.

So if he feels the need to bring Dounikos into the race when he hasn't exactly got strength in depth in the RSA, that gives me some concern on their chances

I can't remember where i read it Jono, Been reading so much. But Lisa O'neill quoted as saying Dounikos has a Great chance in this race.

 

[Kevloaf]

The main thing i'd be taking away from Elliott's desire and and hope for getting Dounikos to run here is that it would be a negative for both Jury Duty and Fagan. The latter 2 runners would almost certainly have Jamie Codd and Lisa O'Neill onboard so they couldn't have a better jockey onboard for their chances.

So if he feels the need to bring Dounikos into the race when he hasn't exactly got strength in depth in the RSA, that gives me some concern on their chances

Certainly can see that being the case.

If Jury Duty / Fagan we're good enough, then would he be trying so hard... I wonder what he thinks sets the standard in this race though... has anything beaten either of those or got collateral form to really bother him?

Maybe he knows No Comment is jocked up and going to take the world of beating :highly_amused: