Not really a race I had put much effort into until today, and I was really surprised to see De Plotting Shed a sea of blue on Oddschecker if I am honest.
It can only be the Elliott factor and that he may look like a plot horse, because not only is he a maiden over fences, and going by Gaultstats maidens have a 30% win rate over the past 10 runnings of the race, not very high for a 6/1 shot in a tough handicap, but he also hasn't won for nearly 18 months, admittedly within that time he has run in some fairly hot races, it would still be a worry for me.
I think Drumcliff could possibly bounce back for the step up in trip, and Rather Be could be anything, having never raced over fences over this distance, but he has looked very good when winning 2 of his 3 runs over shorter to date.
They would be my 2 for now, though there is one I want to look into tomorrow that is of big interest, at early viewing anyway, and once I'm on I shall reveal that one, though someone may have already mentioned him at some point on this thread too.
OK, so I spent a good few hours on this race last night, as noted some of my thoughts above, I know many on here have probably spent longer than I have on it, so please, shoot me down if there are negatives regarding this one.
I have already played Rather Be & Drumcliff for this but I have just added what I consider to be my main bet for this race now in
Mount Mews, he is 16/1 NRNB and I have had myself some of that this morning.
He was a very highly rated and highly tried hurdler and this season he started back out over hurdles, which in hindsight was probably more for race fitness than anything else, as he looked considerably slower than last season. He then took to fences and won his maiden over 1f short of this race trip, but stayed on well to the line. Since that maiden win he has contested 2 races over 3m and these were solid enough runs without actually looking like he could stay the 3m, despite one of the runs only being a neck defeat.
My main worry with MM is if he will actually get in, I think he is number 32 on the weights list, but only 20 run in this race.
As far as ground concerns go, he has none, he has won on all types, he has only finished once outside of the top 3, albeit one of the races he finished 3rd of 4. He travels well enough that a strong festival pace will likely suit and I don't see the 2m 4f as much of a problem for him as 3m is, so will be sure he can see a race of this distance out.
The same owner also has Testify pitched in the same race, who will carry top weight along with a few others at this rate, so I'm not sure if Mount Mews will actually run, has anyone seen any plans for him? I notice he is entered in 4 races for the festival and I will discount the RSA straight away, as he has loads to do to catch up with Black Corton, let alone anything else in the field, but unsure on the rest of the races, surely won't go back over hurdles? Which would leave this or the JLT I guess.
Apologies if someone has already made a case for him, there are so many contributors on here now (which is great) that I barely manage to keep up with everyones posts and likely have duplicated a few myself!
