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Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase 2018

quevega said:
The money for it today suggests Gordon has rang Phil and asked
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It only takes a mention to atr or the sporting life. Look at yanworth last week in the Ultima.


Tycoon Prince 20/1 nrnb ew for me
And hopefully he gets in.

May well be de plotting shed dosent get in and he does or vice versa.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
Anything rated 145 in Ireland is unlikely to make the cut in a 145 ceiling race. But that is where NRNB comes in handy.
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I agree, I wouldn't be getting excited if one of my irish based fancies was on the limit and base some of my selections around this, this race is particularly good at being able to attempt to second guess likely runners/qualifiers or not.
 
Bayoffreedom said:
Interesting. Him, Demi Sang and Peregrine Run all rated 145 in Ireland.I am going to shut up and wait until Wednesday now.
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I could be completely wrong too but the facts say otherwise. Now that you mention Peregrine Run, he is an interesting one as he was not raised when competing in the Coral Cup last year and did run off his Irish mark. Unfortunately he was one of the few lucky ones.
 
Will the 141s get in ? Going to be very compacted so best horse wins scenario ?
 
mayo said:
Will the 141s get in ? Going to be very compacted so best horse wins scenario ?
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It'll be tight Mayo. If your an Irish owner with a horse on 141 you'd be praying that Phil gave you an extra couple of lbs to make sure.
 
He usually adds 7lb to the HRI mark. that's unless their OR was achieved and run to in GB in a Graded hc'p race.
 
Bigfish said:
He usually adds 7lb to the HRI mark. that's unless their OR was achieved and run to in GB in a Graded hc'p race.
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I'd say it's usually between 2-4, with the exceptions being either side of that window
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I'd say it's usually between 2-4, with the exceptions being either side of that window
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Just looked at last years close brothers and he (Phil) was at his harshest, Tully East got 5lb, think there was 5 or 6 other irish in the race and they ranged from 5 - 7lbs. Other races with no ceiling or with novice hurdlers were not as harshly treated aside from the odd exception like presenting percy for example, the average is deffo near 2/3 pounds.
Makes me wonder how many will get in and if the money today for plotting shed is off the back of comments or a tipster somewhere. It's definitely the most harsh race in my experience though cos of the hurdle rating thing i mentioned before.
anything that gets a pound or two is well in based on last year.
 
I'm using my memory now unless it fails me but when Phil Smith appears on ATR ' ask the handicapper ' he's been questioned about his approach to rating IRE trained horses and the increased OR he allots when they run in GB. He has his own ratings for them. I think it's more apparent with Chasers rather than hurdlers. This Eddie O'learys gripe with him.
 
They moaned when Phil Smith increased Percy’s mark last year and then he still hacked up. Davy Russell even apologised on live TV! It always looks harsh but I think the Irish would win every handicap without any adjustments.
 
My take on it now that he's wise to the discrepancy and dealt with it. I've noticed though that there's still an edge where last time out IRE winners run at the Fez on a revised mark including whatever Phil adds . Whether that's 3lb or 7lb. Especially when the win was 'comft . , easily , readily. I take note. Scoir Mear was very unlucky last year. I recall lots of trouble and ran on well when the race was done. maybe needs a step up . If he runs this year I'm on.
 
Bigfish said:
My take on it now that he's wise to the discrepancy and dealt with it. I've noticed though that there's still an edge where last time out IRE winners run at the Fez on a revised mark including whatever Phil adds . Whether that's 3lb or 7lb. Especially when the win was 'comft . , easily , readily. I take note. Scoir Mear was very unlucky last year. I recall lots of trouble and ran on well when the race was done. maybe needs a step up . If he runs this year I'm on.
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Scoir Mear isn't entered this year BF. He was on my radar until recently.
 
quevega said:
Just looked at last years close brothers and he (Phil) was at his harshest, Tully East got 5lb, think there was 5 or 6 other irish in the race and they ranged from 5 - 7lbs. Other races with no ceiling or with novice hurdlers were not as harshly treated aside from the odd exception like presenting percy for example, the average is deffo near 2/3 pounds.
Makes me wonder how many will get in and if the money today for plotting shed is off the back of comments or a tipster somewhere. It's definitely the most harsh race in my experience though cos of the hurdle rating thing i mentioned before.
anything that gets a pound or two is well in based on last year.
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I am going to humbly back away from my earlier comments and would offer the following information as an olive branch to other forum members:

Last year, there were seven horses who were given a rating too high to participate (all Irish). They were as follows (Irish rating in parentheses). Note: it was 0-140 in 2017

Baily Cloud (140)
Blackmail (no rating)
Blazer (135)
Gangster (147)
General Principle (140)
Martello Park (143)
Stone Hard (135)

As regards if Elliott may have spoken to Phil Smith re De Plotting Shed et al, this is what Smith said when the weights were announced last year:

“A lot of Irish trainers will phone us and ask, ‘What rating would this horse get if I entered him now?’ We usually call back a quarter of an hour later with a rating and we’re wedded to that. If that horse runs soon after, that’s the rating he’ll have.

“Tony Martin and Gordon Elliott and a lot of the smaller guys do that. If Mr O’Leary wants to contact us with a list of horses, we’re only too willing to help. We want Irish horses to come over here, we want them to be as successful as the UK horses. Anything we can do to facilitate that we’re more than happy to do


You'd like to think a number of Irish trainers would have called even before making an entry.
 
Added Conrad Hastings to Kalondra. Good ground horse who although it doesn't show on paper made quite a promising return on ground too soft and over a trip too short. Russell was just nursing him closer when he made a horlicks of the second last. Without that he would have finished considerably closer. Early season novice form reads pretty well and on the usual Cheltenham ground has a much better shout than the 33/1 would suggest. Hopefully, they can get Russell again.
 
Think it was calculated recently the average PS rise for Irish horses was 3.6lb.
 
The 10-times champion trainer is optimistic the best is yet to come from Movewiththetimes, who is poised to contest the Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase on the first day at the meeting on March 13.

He said: "He has got multiple entries but I suspect he will run in the Close Brothers on the first day.

"Last season he was a good novice hurdler and was second in the Betfair. He didn't run again after that as he had a minor injury.

"He has had three runs over fences this season, all at Cheltenham. He has run some really nice races in good company.

"He has not jumped as fluently as he might have done so we have done a lot of work on his jumping and he needs to improve in that department.

"He could be competitive in what is a competitive race. He is a real nice horse and we haven't seen the best of him yet."
 
JackieMoon33 said:
Any if I had to predict what Any Second Now will get, I'd say he'll be closer to 150 than 145. It's a shame as I really like the horse.
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Surely they make a call to Phil Smith about his handicap mark? Surprisingly it's his only handicap entry over the 4 days, I was sure he'd be in the Grand Annual too.
 
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