Supreme Novices 2018

[Kevloaf]

Ruby missing his intended comeback this weekend is surely a concern.

You'd be brave to back against him but no way is he turning up 'Match fit' now.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Ruby was walking badly at the Dublin Racing Festival, he had an obvious limp. I can't imagine he'll be fully fit at the festival.

 

[Folski]

Ruby was walking badly at the Dublin Racing Festival, he had an obvious limp. I can't imagine he'll be fully fit at the festival.

I've met him twice at Galway and he was walking like that as well both times once with Paul Carberry and the other with the wife and girls.

 

[jonthehammer]

Gutted for you lads on If the Cap Fits, fortunately I wasn't on as done some money elsewhere on the likes of Sharjah and Debuchet who have disappointed but I guess at least they are still in there.

I am still trying to take Getabird on, I do think he is too short and only raced right handed under rules and I am trying to look for value elsewhere. It is proving difficult though and maybe will wait until the day now.

 

[James Joseph]

I have not given up on Mengli Khan. Lots of experience - the better ground is bound to suit and better off at the weights with Getabird. I think double digits represents bags of value and I am confident that he will place at least and it would be no shock to see Gordon have him in top shape for the the Tuesday. Good to Soft might not play into Getabirds hands as they always talked about him prior to his last run as a stayer. I know it's a of bit of leap of faith to believe Mengli can turn the form around but to mind represents he now represents the value in the Supreme.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I have not given up on Mengli Khan. Lots of experience - the better ground is bound to suit and better off at the weights with Getabird. I think double digits represents bags of value and I am confident that he will place at least and it would be no shock to see Gordon have in top shape on the Tuesday. Good to Soft might not play into Getabirds hands as they always talked about him prior to his last run as a stayer. I know it's a of bit of leap of faith to believe Mengli can turn the form around but to mind represents he now represents the value in the Supreme.

He is now my best result, then Getabird, so either of the 2 Irish and I am happy

 

[The Beast]

I have not given up on Mengli Khan. Lots of experience - the better ground is bound to suit and better off at the weights with Getabird. I think double digits represents bags of value and I am confident that he will place at least and it would be no shock to see Gordon have him in top shape for the the Tuesday. Good to Soft might not play into Getabirds hands as they always talked about him prior to his last run as a stayer. I know it's a of bit of leap of faith to believe Mengli can turn the form around but to mind represents he now represents the value in the Supreme.

Spot on James , Getabird the standard bearer and most probably will win. However Mengli and Claimantakforgan the two imo who will test him if good in ground description.

 

[kinloch brae]

Sorry if this has been mentioned in the past but has anyone seen or know if the footage of Getabird running out in his point is freely available?

Cheltenham will be only the second time he has raced left handed. He has avoided plenty of good left handed tracks in Ireland. That might of course be pure coincidence.

 

[Vanilla]

I think Getabird is a 2m4 horse who has been winning on heavy over 2m.

I am taking him on with Paloma Blue, 16/1

 

[Kevloaf]

Sorry if this has been mentioned in the past but has anyone seen or know if the footage of Getabird running out in his point is freely available?

Cheltenham will be only the second time he has raced left handed. He has avoided plenty of good left handed tracks in Ireland. That might of course be pure coincidence.

I brought this point up about Getabird but my conclusion perosnally in the end was that it probably won't matter!

 

[Kevloaf]

I think Getabird is a 2m4 horse who has been winning on heavy over 2m.

I am taking him on with Paloma Blue, 16/1

Ground and trip are fine reasons to take him on at his price IMO

Paloma Blue your only dart? I am a good bit removed from the days I only had one in a race (although happily it was Cinders and Ashes) * No it wasn't I backed MTOY the year after! in 2013 :highly_amused:

 

[Kevloaf]

I've been holding off on getting Getabird in multiples and so on... when I posted my thoughts a couple of weeks back I was Getabird win and ITCF each way... so no change for Getabird.

However, I can;'t bring myself to get excited about the current price and therefore I still have hardly any multiples!.... yet another interesting "negative" for Getabird is his Racing Post Rating of 152. (This is all on the app btw) ... but that is 1lb BELOW Kalashnikov and 5lb below the 10 year Supreme winners average.

That, the better ground, the left-handed thing, the Ruby fitness factor, the fact Douvan was 2/1....negatives are starting to stack up?

You'd be VERY brave to back at current odds of 6/4 for me! That is more negatives than you'd like about a short priced fav...

 

[Bigfish]

Don't worry yerself Kevloaf . The RPR figures are flawed. Postmark alots variable numbers depending on the race type and age/ progression rate of the horse at different stages of it's career.Also the IRE ratings are also undervalued. Thats why Phil Smith adds on 7lb! Getabirds 8lb clear of Kalahnikov.

 

[Bigfish]

Sorry my first post. Hi to everyone, newbie. Love the great uncertainty of horse racing. My family were old school bookies. Good luck to all.

 

[BigChaang]

Welcome to F.J , Bigfish , I take it you like Getabird for this race . ?.

 

[Bigfish]

Thats the one ..I have him at 16s for it . I also covered for the Ballymore just in case. Ive bet in multiple comb. 4,5 ,6 folds this year and permed exotics .My pick for a close second pl. Is Mengli Khan. Those are the two l have in this.

 

[kinloch brae]

I brought this point up about Getabird but my conclusion perosnally in the end was that it probably won't matter!

I have previously made the point elsewhere myself. I was looking for some footage last night and noticed a trends guy had also mentioned it.

Have you viewed the footage and what makes you think it isn't going to happen again?

I know his career has been interrupted but there must have been novice hurdles on left handed tracks that he could have targeted. In fact Mullins would usually target them with his best novices.

When he won last time the head on showed he was so hard on the rail that he was literally colliding with it.

Yes, it might mean absolutely nothing but there is a big difference in betting terms between having doubts about a 50/1 shot and a short priced favourite.

 

[Al Ferof]

It’s a real long shot at this stage, but I have a “hanging by a thread” 33/1 ticket on SPEAK EASY for this. He runs today in the Naas Grade 2 over 2m. He was excellent on debut over this trip, but then disappointed behind Next Destintion and Cracking Smart over 2 and a half.

There’s two things that made me back him: 1) he’s by Beneficial and I’m convinced will love spring ground. 2) 2m trip. He travelled really well and hurdles really well last time out, but didn’t get home and made a bad mistake at the last when tired. I don’t think the ground suited him at all and the first 4 home that day all have 3m as an option, so it was a race for stamina laden horses.

He has to bounce back today over the minimum trip, but if he can, he might get a ticket to the Supreme.

 

[Folski]

I think Getabird is a 2m4 horse who has been winning on heavy over 2m.

I am taking him on with Paloma Blue, 16/1

So were Champagne Fever and Al Ferof.

Yet they managed to beat a Champion Hurdler, a 3 time Champion Hurdler runner up and a 2 time Champion Chaser.

 

[Bigfish]

Good take on his form Al Ferof and thank you for sharing your insight. I will have a flutter on him in my first single bet for the Fez.All of my main bets are on so time to have a bit of fun. Cheers