National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2018

[Kevloaf]

Agree 100%. Been doing it all the way through. Only I imagine most people can’t get a decent bet on with Sportsbook.

Nod from here too.

 

[Kevloaf]

Think it will end up in the 4 miler as it looks a much easier race and the top amateurs are going to be putting that call in to Tizz if they're not already committed. But I've no idea who's already signed up for something else.

What made you confident enough to bet then Moby?
What would be the reason for you to pick today to make the bet?
Do you think EE will win the race or are you purely punting to lay at a shorter price?

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Degsy’s article on irishracing.com

I’m enjoying riding at the moment, especially the opportunities that I’m getting in bumpers. The calibre of horses I’m riding for Joseph are better than I ever got to ride in my whole career and I’m 35 now and not going to be at it forever so I may as well make the most of it for these couple of years now!

It would be lovely to get to Cheltenham and maybe win a Kim Muir to get a clean sweep in the amateur races there and I’d really love a good spin in the Cross Country race at the Cheltenham Festival and maybe some day something will pop up. I don’t really set myself aims or targets now, I’ll just continue to do the best I can and give something back where I can.

They are both playing hard to get :highly_amused:

 

[Moby123]

Each day I go through all the races and work out the ones I believe are overpriced and then set off to back them at the respective bookmakers. Sometimes I get lucky and a cashier doesn't refer them up to bet acceptance so I get comfy and keep betting til they decide they better call them up.
It's hard to keep on top of all the races with twitter, trainer websites, stable tours etc but there tend to be about a dozen worth backing each day across all the races.
I think EE is overpriced. It may win too but I'll be trading out a good chunk of my total stake provided it hits the 3/1 7/2 sort of mark that I think is fair, simply because my stake will be pretty high (perhaps not by some people's standard though!) by the day.

 

[Moby123]

Secret Dragon at 33-1 with PP in the Supreme NRNB will be on tomorrow mornings list. As it will only press on to the Supreme if it runs really well in which case bye bye 33-1.
So expect a blue blob on Oddschecker by midday!

 

[Scooby91]

Agree 100%. Been doing it all the way through. Only I imagine most people can’t get a decent bet on with Sportsbook.

Yanworth Ultima was another. Made a quick few quid from that. With top price BF and people on the panic due to there 4/1 nrnb.

 

[Kevloaf]

If you're trading out though, And laying off ... why are the bookies so fearful of you ... As you're making money via the exchanges rather than from the bookies...it doesn't seem to me they would cut a price because a 3k bet was placed if some of the time they lose but you don't mind because you've already made your money?

 

[Moby123]

If you're trading out though, And laying off ... why are the bookies so fearful of you ... As you're making money via the exchanges rather than from the bookies...it doesn't seem to me they would cut a price because a 3k bet was placed if some of the time they lose but you don't mind because you've already made your money?

No. Historically I'm about 500k down on Betfair. I would clearly fare a lot better if I just left all by bookmaker bets running but I like to make a profit each Cheltenham (it's my main source of income) so tend to lay back at slightly higher than I should.

I agree that a 3k liability to them doesn't seem much at all, but it's what they've been doing this year. Same with Lads/Corals

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

No. Historically I'm about 500k down on Betfair. I would clearly fare a lot better if I just left all by bookmaker bets running but I like to make a profit each Cheltenham (it's my main source of income) so tend to lay back at slightly higher than I should.

I agree that a 3k liability to them doesn't seem much at all, but it's what they've been doing this year. Same with Lads/Corals

As somebody who prides themselves on backing other people's tips AKA 'the wagon jumper' welcome to the forum and look forward to you sharing some pearls of wisdom a bit earlier in the run up to 2019

 

[James Joseph]

Are we in danger of overlooking Rathvinden? Patrick has been linked with this horse for the 4 miler for a while but all has gone very quiet in recent weeks. Have the recent falls dented confidence or is he considered to be badly handicapped? I am on at 20s but I must admit that once again I seem to be in the minority.

 

[Kevloaf]

Are we in danger of overlooking Rathvinden? Patrick has been linked with this horse for the 4 miler for a while but all has gone very quiet in recent weeks. Have the recent falls dented confidence or is he considered to be badly handicapped? I am on at 20s but I must admit that once again I seem to be in the minority.

I'm with you on Rathvinden. My biggest winner in the race. (I think)

I think he has obvious back class, very good form and Patrick Mullins mentioned him at the NAtional weights and said he comes here.... so not worried that it has been quiet...

 

[billymag]

Im with you JJ on Rathvinden if Patrick is on he'll be a single figure price on the day (as stated at the Aintree weights), hes run to a serious RPR that puts him right in the mix for this.

 

[jono]

Yeah plenty to like about Rathvinden James. I'm on at 25/1. Will in all likelihood have the highest OR in the race too at 152.
I did wonder whether the owner would want to run both him and Fagan but both camps (Mullins and Elliott) have continued to suggest both will run. Once some at the head of the market get confirmed elsewhere his price will definitely tumble

 

[Kevloaf]

Imagine Faugheen and Rathvinden (3rd) both winning on the same day, some 4 years after competing in the same Neptune!

Ballyalton 2nd that day too ..... unfortunately not running until the Thursday :highly_amused:

 

[doctorwu]

Having gone through this race with the 5 strongest trends these are the following horses that come out on top.

28/32 1st or 2nd last 2 runs
14/15 age 6,7,8
last 6 winners at least 143
19/20 1st or 2nd in 3m chase
30/33 at least 4 runs
No winners this century were beaten fav last time out
Its not surprising at all that they feature at the top of the betting.

Elegant Escape
Jury Duty
Monbeg Notorious
Mossback
Moulin a Vent
Keeper Hill
Presenting Perc

The last 2 on the list are doubtful.

 

[jono]

No direct quotes but from ATR today (in their article on Samcro):

Dounikos, Jury Duty and Fagan form a potential three-pronged assault on the National Hunt Chase.

Looks like Elliott has got his way re. Dounikos.

 

[Kevloaf]

No direct quotes but from ATR today (in their article on Samcro):



Looks like Elliott has got his way re. Dounikos.

Very happy to see Fagan in that (25/1 first bet of the season almost!)
Happy with Jury Duty, looked to be an obvious number 1.
Not happy with Dounikos. That will be a horse I like that has a great chance that I do NOT have. If Lisa O'Neill rides, he certainly doesn't have the back class of Tiger Roll though, and perhaps will b e shorter than he should be because "connections" won it last year?
Straw clutching on my behalf there!

 

[Scooby91]

Very happy to see Fagan in that (25/1 first bet of the season almost!)
Happy with Jury Duty, looked to be an obvious number 1.
Not happy with Dounikos. That will be a horse I like that has a great chance that I do NOT have. If Lisa O'Neill rides, he certainly doesn't have the back class of Tiger Roll though, and perhaps will b e shorter than he should be because "connections" won it last year?
Straw clutching on my behalf there!

Dounikos will be the best horse in the race if he does indeed go, which elliot is implying will be the case..
one that iv missed but should be on. Would be rare giggi sent one for the 4 miler that could win an rsa.

 

[jono]

The year Don Poli won the RSA, there was plenty of back and fourth in the targets of Don Poli, Very Wood, Wounded Warrior and Thunder and Roses for Gigginstown. On the 6th March Very Wood was stated as going for the RSA but it was a late switch going to the 4 miler (and going off 7/2Fav). Could be a similar late decision once again so although it looks the case right now, I wouldn't be certain. One that I've missed as well so I'd actually be hoping they do indeed stick with the RSA!

Surprised we still haven't had any jockey bookings for this and the Kim Muir announced yet to be honest. There's usually always a few announced by this point in the lead up based on previous years

 

[jono]

Quotes from Elliott on the above horses:

I will run two or three in the National Hunt Chase. We are looking at Dounikos, Jury Duty and Fagan at the moment.

"Dounikos has entries in the RSA Insurance Novices' Chase and the JLT Novices' Chase, but I think the National Hunt Chase is made for him.

"Both Dounikos and Jury Duty have Grade One form. The National Hunt Chase was the first race I won at The Festival, with Chicago Grey in 2011, and these two are a lot classier horses. For me, it is a better race every year and you need a 150-rated horse to win it.

"Fagan is coming in fresh. He was second in the Albert Bartlett in 2016 and, although he has had a few problems since, hopefully they are behind him. He is working well at home and is another who likes the sun on his back.