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Champion Chase 2018

Kevloaf said:
Dangerous to say he travelled better IMO - I think the style of the jockeys is absolute stark contrast and Nico will push along long before RUby would dream of it... we can onl tell how a horse is travelling by looking at the jockey on top (bar them throwing their head around etc)?

I agree Altior may be better over further, and have said that previously. I think he'd win the Ryanair incredibly easily...but obviously don't want to see that.

Special Tiara wouldn't have liked the ground either so picking him up wouldn't have been as impressive as it perhaps looked?
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Yes all fair points Kev. Do agree re Nico and Ruby.

Yes I think Ryanair would actually be his perfect race as well but as you say it is much better that he runs here.

Hopefully they get there in one piece. Always my favourite race of the week.
 
Tenty said:
Exactly, Min travelled better to the turn than Altior despite what the race comments say.

A literal reading of that race obviously gives him no chance but he has certainly improved in the interim and was very impressive given how quickly Special Tiara went last week and how easily he tracked him.

Just my opinion that Altior will need further on good ground. If it turns up soft then this is a non issue but I think he will get found out on spring ground over 2 now he is a couple of years older.
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I have always had that same opinion I see exactly where your coming from. But with further evidence on altior that's his run style. Once shaken up he has gears left and just cruises.

arctic fire was simular in that regard imo. Without coming back on the bridle like altior does.
 
Tenty said:
Yes all fair points Kev. Do agree re Nico and Ruby.

Yes I think Ryanair would actually be his perfect race as well but as you say it is much better that he runs here.

Hopefully they get there in one piece. Always my favourite race of the week.
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Perhaps they'll take him to the Melling after the CC and he can clash with the winner of the Ryanair over 2m4f.... that would put our theory to the test!

*Either way, I don't care who is the best horse of all time over 2m4f.... 2m or 3m are much more important so even if I don't find out, it's not a big loss haha
 
Timeform gave Min 169+ for his win last weekend
They've given Altior 169+ for his win yesterday

So Timeform certainly see it closer than I do. Altior's peak TF rating is 171.
 
Kevloaf said:
Timeform gave Min 169+ for his win last weekend
They've given Altior 169+ for his win yesterday

So Timeform certainly see it closer than I do. Altior's peak TF rating is 171.
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I'm surprised by Min's rating of 169. Ordinary World would have been reasonably close had he not made a mess of the last.
 
I have a feeling after Altiors performance at Newbury, Douvan's 50/50 chance has suddenly shifted towards not running and he ends up "not quite ready"...

I just cant see them pitching up Douvan without a run against Altior. If he had of got beaten yesterday or not looked quite as good then maybe they would have really pushed him and gone all out to get him ready in time but they'll settle with Min now imo and save Douvan for Punchestown.
 
Reasons why I think it is possible Min could overturn the form with Altior result in a bit of study I did in the Supreme a few years back.

Off the top of my head horses who would have been within 10L of the champion hurdle based on time that were 5 at the time.

2016 - Min
2016 - Buveur D'Air (Champion Hurdler)
2015 - Douvan
2015 - Sizing John (Gold Cup winner)
2014 - Vautour (Ryanair winner)
2013 - Jezki (Champion hurdler)
2011 - Spirit Son
2011 - Sprinter Sacre (Champion Chaser)

Of the three who haven't won a major festival race Spirit Son won the G1 at Aintree before succumbing to a rare disease, next seasons Champion Hurdle was won by Rock On Ruby and I think he'd have been bang there. We all know how good Douvan is and few would doubt he would have won QMCC last year if he was right. Min is the only other, yes he was beat 7L by Altior. Jezki was smashed a similar distance by the Tent.

I'm not saying he will win but this is a very interesting trend.
 
I've got Min as my biggest winner here ahead of Altior and am happy with that position. Might be a bit of a bounce next month and although he's 3 from 3 at the track i'm not 100% he's at his best there... we've seen him off the bridle earlier around Cheltenham than at flatter tracks
 
Robbante said:
I've got Min as my biggest winner here ahead of Altior and am happy with that position. Might be a bit of a bounce next month and although he's 3 from 3 at the track i'm not 100% he's at his best there... we've seen him off the bridle earlier around Cheltenham than at flatter tracks
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Charbel did look to have him at it last year. He was super impressive the weekend. When he won the Arkle last year I immediately thought King George.
 
Folski said:
Charbel did look to have him at it last year. He was super impressive the weekend. When he won the Arkle last year I immediately thought King George.
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I can't remember seeing him more impressive than at the weekend, it might be that the wind op has brought about improvement - if so then it's a done deal and he wins. He's been almost unbackable all year though really at the prices, and there is enough doubt there on the bounce factor and track that at the prices i'd rather chance Min as a single. Have altior in a couple of doubles with Buveur D'air and Apples Jade so hoping there will be something rolling onto him to have him covered
 
Interesting stat posted in the lay thread.

Horses who have been off 275+ days who are running with 40 days of their reappearence are 1 win out of 106

I imagine a lot of those may be handicappers but still interesting to me
 
Hurricane fly said:
Interesting stat posted in the lay thread.

Horses who have been off 275+ days who are running with 40 days of their reappearence are 1 win out of 106

I imagine a lot of those may be handicappers but still interesting to me
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Would be very interesting to see the 106 and their odds, age, profile etc.

Can't think of any obvious qualifier off the top of my head.
 
Folski said:
Reasons why I think it is possible Min could overturn the form with Altior result in a bit of study I did in the Supreme a few years back.

Off the top of my head horses who would have been within 10L of the champion hurdle based on time that were 5 at the time.

2016 - Min
2016 - Buveur D'Air (Champion Hurdler)
2015 - Douvan
2015 - Sizing John (Gold Cup winner)
2014 - Vautour (Ryanair winner)
2013 - Jezki (Champion hurdler)
2011 - Spirit Son
2011 - Sprinter Sacre (Champion Chaser)

Of the three who haven't won a major festival race Spirit Son won the G1 at Aintree before succumbing to a rare disease, next seasons Champion Hurdle was won by Rock On Ruby and I think he'd have been bang there. We all know how good Douvan is and few would doubt he would have won QMCC last year if he was right. Min is the only other, yes he was beat 7L by Altior. Jezki was smashed a similar distance by the Tent.

I'm not saying he will win but this is a very interesting trend.
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Aren't you missing Altior off that list though? As the Arkle winner? Which doesn't add to min's chances?
 
Im not sure why everyone is so confident Altior will beat Min in the CC. There is only 3lbs between them on Official Ratings Altior 170, Min 167. Min recorded his best every RPR of 176 this season at Leopardstown, where as Altior's best RPR 177 was April 2017. Again not much between them according to the racing post but id rather be with recent form. Most interestingly, Altior's best AH Speed rating of 79 was recorded in Nov 2016. Min recorded his best ever 81 on his most recent race. For comparison Douvan's best was 88. I think Altior's return race isn't anything to be excited about, on the face of Politologue's form you might rate it quite highly, but scratch beneath the surface and Politologue just isn't as good as his form looks on paper, his Kempton run producing a 69 AH Speed Rating, and his best being 75. Also the suggestion that Ordinary World would have given Min a real race if he hadnt made mistake.. that horse had just made up a lot of ground to get as close to Min who was travelling with his head in his chest out in front.. I don't see how Ordianry Word's effort would have been sustained to challenge a quickening Min.. And anyone of that opinion must also think that Charbel would have given Altior a real race in the Arkle. So in summary the actual evidence puts them close together than the betting, im also encouraged to see by another poster Timeform have them close together.. yet all I hear (possibly not on this forum) is how Altior is going to beat him by half the track. I actually fancy Min to turn Altior over, I hope so as Min is my biggest winner too!
 
DBUK said:
Im not sure why everyone is so confident Altior will beat Min in the CC. There is only 3lbs between them on Official Ratings Altior 170, Min 167. Min recorded his best every RPR of 176 this season at Leopardstown, where as Altior's best RPR 177 was April 2017. Again not much between them according to the racing post but id rather be with recent form. Most interestingly, Altior's best AH Speed rating of 79 was recorded in Nov 2016. Min recorded his best ever 81 on his most recent race. For comparison Douvan's best was 88. I think Altior's return race isn't anything to be excited about, on the face of Politologue's form you might rate it quite highly, but scratch beneath the surface and Politologue just isn't as good as his form looks on paper, his Kempton run producing a 69 AH Speed Rating, and his best being 75. Also the suggestion that Ordinary World would have given Min a real race if he hadnt made mistake.. that horse had just made up a lot of ground to get as close to Min who was travelling with his head in his chest out in front.. I don't see how Ordianry Word's effort would have been sustained to challenge a quickening Min.. And anyone of that opinion must also think that Charbel would have given Altior a real race in the Arkle. So in summary the actual evidence puts them close together than the betting, im also encouraged to see by another poster Timeform have them close together.. yet all I hear (possibly not on this forum) is how Altior is going to beat him by half the track. I actually fancy Min to turn Altior over, I hope so as Min is my biggest winner too!
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The official ratings and the RPR are a load of nonsense if they think there’s that little between Altior and Min. Altior is far superior to anything that will line up in the CC - assuming Douvan doesn’t run.

I think Altior would beat Douvan tbh but Min... he will beat Min on the bridle
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Interesting. Wonder what that means for Min? Wouldn't actually be surprised if RR decides to run them both this time considering the doubts over Douvan. And considering Willie has Yorkhill and UDS for the Ryanair.
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Mullins would want it to work out like that I’m sure, Ricci bound to want a chance of winning both races?
 
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