Triumph Hurdle 2018

[Robbante]

Hi all, been reading for a couple of months but first time poster.

Anyone heard any news about Demopolis as I'm starting to be concerned about his prospects of turning up here? Not a race I usually get involved in too early but had a couple of points e.w last Oct. based on the OJA write-up and Hobbs' comments in the RP. He was quoted as saying he'd be out by the end of Nov but since then I've heard nothing and, given what else J.P has for this race, am starting to think he may even be getting kept back for the Fred Winter. He has a RPR of 129 from his run in France and this I suspect would result in a official mark of about 127-133 if they were to ask for one which would get him in to the Fred Winter and put him on the same sort of mark it's been won off before so have had a further point ew at 25s on the Any Race market but may well have just thrown away another two points so any updates re his health much appreciated.

I'm liking that thinking. JP might be thinking he has the triumph covered from his side of things, and the Fred Winter would look ideal for a horse like Sao or Demopolis to come straight into off a decent mark

 

[Scooby91]

Hi all, been reading for a couple of months but first time poster.

Anyone heard any news about Demopolis as I'm starting to be concerned about his prospects of turning up here? Not a race I usually get involved in too early but had a couple of points e.w last Oct. based on the OJA write-up and Hobbs' comments in the RP. He was quoted as saying he'd be out by the end of Nov but since then I've heard nothing and, given what else J.P has for this race, am starting to think he may even be getting kept back for the Fred Winter. He has a RPR of 129 from his run in France and this I suspect would result in a official mark of about 127-133 if they were to ask for one which would get him in to the Fred Winter and put him on the same sort of mark it's been won off before so have had a further point ew at 25s on the Any Race market but may well have just thrown away another two points so any updates re his health much appreciated.

I don't think they would give him a mark that low as There is plenty of form to come from that race and he's only had the 1 run. So id be suprised if they gave him 1 at all tbh l
I haven't heard anything he could have an injury or he could be waiting to have a run. All you can do is keep an eye on entries

theres a handful of juveniles that haven't been out yet who would interest me for either race. Especially the fred winter

I can't think of a single horse that's come from France with 1 run. Got a mark and ran in the fred winter

 

[Scooby91]

I'm liking that thinking. JP might be thinking he has the triumph covered from his side of things, and the Fred Winter would look ideal for a horse like Sao or Demopolis to come straight into off a decent mark

Elli may would be the 1 with the runs under the belt.
Melody of scotland if she was sound.

 

[Robbante]

Elli may would be the 1 with the runs under the belt.
Melody of scotland if she was sound.

How much would the handicapper dig into the French form? Demopolis beat we have a dream a couple of lengths in France and that one is now rated 143. Obviously has had a couple of runs but is there a chance the handicapper would give demopolis a mark mid to late 130s based on that? I still haven’t lost faith in style De garde, can’t ignore the form of previous runs. Would have to have an interest in him also if turning up here now

 

[Scooby91]

How much would the handicapper dig into the French form? Demopolis beat we have a dream a couple of lengths in France and that one is now rated 143. Obviously has had a couple of runs but is there a chance the handicapper would give demopolis a mark mid to late 130s based on that? I still haven’t lost faith in style De garde, can’t ignore the form of previous runs. Would have to have an interest in him also if turning up here now

I don't think he'd get a mark at all.
But they can make mistakes with ones who have ran more ie au aux ptit soins in the coral but hed already lost his novice status And won 2 over hurdles.

 

[Andy62]

I had a look at the rules re getting a mark a couple of weeks ago and my reading of them was: three runs no probs but trainer can also request a mark after two runs if the horse has placed both times or after one if it has won the race so unless there was something in the small print that I missed or I was reading flat instead of NH rules or something like that I do suspect that they would be able to get a mark for him if they wanted one. Sao in similar position as far as I can remember, two runs, one fall and one win and bits of blue for him on Oddschecker suggest he may be going Fred Winter and therefore entitled to be given a UK mark. Anyway this is all conjecture at the moment bit I am looking forward to involving myself in some of the debates on here.

 

[Scooby91]

I had a look at the rules re getting a mark a couple of weeks ago and my reading of them was: three runs no probs but trainer can also request a mark after two runs if the horse has placed both times or after one if it has won the race so unless there was something in the small print that I missed or I was reading flat instead of NH rules or something like that I do suspect that they would be able to get a mark for him if they wanted one. Sao in similar position as far as I can remember, two runs, one fall and one win and bits of blue for him on Oddschecker suggest he may be going Fred Winter and therefore entitled to be given a UK mark. Anyway this is all conjecture at the moment bit I am looking forward to involving myself in some of the debates on here.

I know quite a few who have been refused. And a few more publically for Tony martin etc. . These are all the types of horse im waiting for with keen interest. But its a shame the entries are so far away. And it's almost impossible to guess what mark they would get

Msassa
Demopolis
Melody of scotland
Elimay ********
Eoline jolie
Oistrakh Le Noir
Sao
Chante neige

Any could obviously go triumph

If anybody could be bothered to add all these with 365 I'd be very interested in the prices.

I think elimay might be the one for the silly mark because she hasn't got a whole host of 1s next to her name. Her and chante neige are closely matvhed to stormy ireland. The latter is the same owner.

 

[Kevloaf]

Welcome to the forum Andy .... missed your first post somehow

I'm paranoid about asking for any of the above scooby - I need my 365 account :highly_amused:

Does Saldier have another target after the Fairyhouse meeting was called off? I'd taken 40/1 NRNB before that was called off

 

[Scooby91]

Welcome to the forum Andy .... missed your first post somehow

I'm paranoid about asking for any of the above scooby - I need my 365 account :highly_amused:

Does Saldier have another target after the Fairyhouse meeting was called off? I'd taken 40/1 NRNB before that was called off

Honestly don't know where but he will. Must admit iv cashed out on him when called off.

They quote me the same price now 20/1 every time when I try to add one they don't know. But I do ask prob far too many requests. I added Apple's shakira and espoir d'allen in the first place.

 

[Kevloaf]

This isn't really relevant for anyone, but I am in a much better spot this year compared to last year in the Triumph.

Last year I'd backed DDS, CP, Mega Fortune all at single figure prices....and in singles only made 3 pts profit on the race (DDS did land a 65 pt return from multiples though) - was in the Charli Parcs camp all season so DDS was more a saver than winner, bar the multiple!)

This year the only single figure horse I've backed is Espoir D'allen at 8.68/1 with WH and I've got 4 of the top 5 in the betting covered.

Apples Shakira - 1.2 pt - 25/1
We Have a Dream - 0.75 pts e/w - 33/1
Stormy Ireland NRNB - 1.5 pts e/w - 16/1
Saldier NRNB - 0.75 pts e/w - 40/1 - might have to cash out
Gumball - 1 pt e/w - 27/1
Style De Garde - 0.75 pts e/w - 33/1
Espoir D'allen - 1 pt e/w 10/1 and 1pt e/w 8.68/1

Apple's Shakira is the only one I've included in any multiple though, one was with Might Bite KG in a trixie, so she'd be my biggest signle winner too despite that not being the case in literal terms above.

She is my idea of the winner, although has no form in the book to confirm that yet, and she'll scare everything off next week too probably.

Of the others....

No desire to get Redicean in my plans at the current price - made my thoughts on him known a page or so back

Farclas is avail at 20s, looks held by Espoir D'allen and is 16s NRNB which isn't big enough to tempt me at the moment.

Sussex Ranger I think is held by We Have A Dream, so don't want to back that at half the price I've got WHAD at (16/s compared to 33s)

Et Mors Alors - PRobably had the race won yesterday, but 50/1 shot wasn't dealt with and although might be better than Sussex Ranger for the trainer, I don't really fancy either

Mitchouka - Held in Ireland and might not go here

Mr Adjudictor - 16/1 NRNB and 25/1 aren't enough for me at the moment because I think Stormy Ireland is number 1 for the stable... will have a market/jockey booking check at the Dublin festival though.

Loads of others, and in no way are 4yo's an area I feel I have an edge in... but I'm happy enough at this stage.

 

[Scooby91]

This isn't really relevant for anyone, but I am in a much better spot this year compared to last year in the Triumph.

Last year I'd backed DDS, CP, Mega Fortune all at single figure prices....and in singles only made 3 pts profit on the race (DDS did land a 65 pt return from multiples though) - was in the Charli Parcs camp all season so DDS was more a saver than winner, bar the multiple!)

This year the only single figure horse I've backed is Espoir D'allen at 8.68/1 with WH and I've got 4 of the top 5 in the betting covered.

Apples Shakira - 1.2 pt - 25/1
We Have a Dream - 0.75 pts e/w - 33/1
Stormy Ireland NRNB - 1.5 pts e/w - 16/1
Saldier NRNB - 0.75 pts e/w - 40/1 - might have to cash out
Gumball - 1 pt e/w - 27/1
Style De Garde - 0.75 pts e/w - 33/1
Espoir D'allen - 1 pt e/w 10/1 and 1pt e/w 8.68/1

Apple's Shakira is the only one I've included in any multiple though, one was with Might Bite KG in a trixie, so she'd be my biggest signle winner too despite that not being the case in literal terms above.

She is my idea of the winner, although has no form in the book to confirm that yet, and she'll scare everything off next week too probably.

Of the others....

No desire to get Redicean in my plans at the current price - made my thoughts on him known a page or so back

Farclas is avail at 20s, looks held by Espoir D'allen and is 16s NRNB which isn't big enough to tempt me at the moment.

Sussex Ranger I think is held by We Have A Dream, so don't want to back that at half the price I've got WHAD at (16/s compared to 33s)

Et Mors Alors - PRobably had the race won yesterday, but 50/1 shot wasn't dealt with and although might be better than Sussex Ranger for the trainer, I don't really fancy either

Mitchouka - Held in Ireland and might not go here

Mr Adjudictor - 16/1 NRNB and 25/1 aren't enough for me at the moment because I think Stormy Ireland is number 1 for the stable... will have a market/jockey booking check at the Dublin festival though.

Loads of others, and in no way are 4yo's an area I feel I have an edge in... but I'm happy enough at this stage.

That's a good book kev not really worried about WHAD for win purposes but would have liked him ew. Or win at the 33s 66s in hind sight.

Apple's shakira 33/1 2pts
Stormy ireland 40/1* 2pts
Espoir dallen 33/1 2pts
Msassa 28.0. 2pts before pulled out last time
Gumball 33/1* 1pt
Demopolis 33/1 1pt

All win only. On the look out though for entries. If I could cash out gumball and demopolis I would.

 

[Kevloaf]

Only Espoir D'allen that I should have taken at the bigger price really....

Your book is excellent, but no surprise as you have your finger firmly on the pulse for this race from day 1!

Stormy Ireland I was 15 seconds too slow to get 40/1 ... not unhappy with 16s though!:highly_amused:

Hoping for an impressive performance against Espoir D'allen - 4 lbs better on RPR's - I see she's 7/4 and Espoir D'allen 10/11 this far out.... if they're close or SI wins I'll be finished in the race.

If Espoir D'allen wins impressively it isn't a real problem though

 

[Scooby91]

Only Espoir D'allen that I should have taken at the bigger price really....

Your book is excellent, but no surprise as you have your finger firmly on the pulse for this race from day 1!

Stormy Ireland I was 15 seconds too slow to get 40/1 ... not unhappy with 16s though!:highly_amused:

Hoping for an impressive performance against Espoir D'allen - 4 lbs better on RPR's - I see she's 7/4 and Espoir D'allen 10/11 this far out.... if they're close or SI wins I'll be finished in the race.

If Espoir D'allen wins impressively it isn't a real problem though

I was about 3 second away from 5 pts ew on stormy Ireland at 50s 1/4
price was there but had to confirm deposit with the security banking password.

 

[Kevloaf]

I was about 3 second away from 5 pts ew on stormy Ireland at 50s 1/4
price was there but had to confirm deposit with the security banking password.

Wounded.

I've tried to avoid that where I can by depositing first but that ties up cash flow in the bank for a couple of days so isn't ideal!

 

[Kevloaf]

Pete So High franking the Mr Adjudicator form there..... might re-assess that

25/1 available with WH

 

[cpfcpatriot]

In terms of Et Moi Alors, I was told a few months back that Gary Moore thought Sussex Ranger was the best horse in his yard.

Now, EMA could have improved since then as this was before SR debuted over hurdles, but it’s an interesting one all the same.

 

[Kevloaf]

Saldier entered up again now, only bet price 25/1 NRNB though now... was 40/1 before. I had cashed out the 40/1 assuming it'd still be there on entries so shot myself in the foot a little there :sleeping:

 

[Hurricane fly]

Saldier entered up again now, only bet price 25/1 NRNB though now... was 40/1 before. I had cashed out the 40/1 assuming it'd still be there on entries so shot myself in the foot a little there :sleeping:

Me too!:grumpy:

 

[kinloch brae]

Apple's Shakira looked to get outpaced running to the last and that was on deep ground. Jumps and stays but nothing that her likely opposition should be unduly concerned about.

 

[mayo]

Apple's Shakira looked to get outpaced running to the last and that was on deep ground. Jumps and stays but nothing that her likely opposition should be unduly concerned about.

I expect she will get placed at least but could be vulnerable on better. Apples Jade couldnt win the Triumph.