Arkle 2018

[Can't Catch Me]

Was quite taken with Saint Calvados myself. Looks like he could be very useful.

 

[jono]

Okay ---- remember 100/1 Rawnaq? I've got another, albeit not as strong a case to be made, as we all know if Rawnaq didn't get injured he was a GOOD THING :highly_amused:

I've added a 100/1 shot with BFSB - Saint Calvados. A while back, on the mares thread Brital mentioned he'd added Saint Calvados at 100/1 for the Arkle.... I popped him in the tracker and waited.

0.5pt e/w Saint Calvados 100/1 Arkle

Actually, 66/1 for the JLT too and if he goes Scilly Isles maybe that is more likely....
0.5 pt e/w Saint Calvados 66/1 JLT

Superb shout this Kev, and Brital. :encouragement: Having only won on Soft and Heavy so far it'll be interesting how he acts on better ground with Cheltenham in mind but very taking performance and round of jumping today at Newbury.

I missed the 100's but did back him this morning at 50's. A general 20/1 shot now with PP going as low as 16/1.

Trainer has come out after the race and said it's onto the Kingmaker (where he is likely to meet Sceau Royal) and then hopefully the Arkle.

Lovely work

 

[Kevloaf]

Top shout kev. What do you think the plan is now...one run in a graded race before cheltenham??

According to the trainer, Kingmaker and then hopefully the Arkle. *Sorry just seen this was answered already!

 

[jono]

Quotes after the race...

Trainer Harry Whittington will now step the five-year-old up in class, with the Grade Two Betway Kingmaker Novices' Chase at Warwick on February 10 his likely next port of call.

Looking further ahead, the Arkle Trophy at the Cheltenham Festival could be on the horizon.

The French import jumped the opposition into the ground as he followed up a course and distance success on his British debut 18 days earlier.

Aidan Coleman was always in control and the 5/4 favourite was never any in real danger as he sauntered home 10 lengths clear from Tree Of Liberty.

"It was excellent. I'm really pleased," said the Wantage handler.

"He feels useful at home and we wanted to run him off the mark the handicappers gave him on his French runs. We wanted to see if he was well-handicapped over fences off his hurdles mark.

"Newbury is just down the road from us and it's a big galloping track.

"He did it well the first day and came on mentally as well for the run, and he was very good today. It was probably a better race on paper and he's done it with a 4lb rise giving weight to useful rivals, so the next stop is the Kingmaker and he'll have an Arkle entry.

"We'll go on from there."

 

[Kevloaf]

I don't think this will happen..... but, if Brain Power beats UDS tomorrow... he HAS to be Arkle fav?

Footpad wouldn't beat UDS ... or Footpad would have been backed in to odds on for the Arkle already?

I am CONVINCED UDS wins tomorrow....so if he gets beaten fairly, by Brain Power.... and Brain Power was not shorter than Footpad.... I'd be bowled over. I'd have to take evasive action and question everything I thought I knew :highly_amused:

All hypothetical obviously... but how would you react?

 

[Scooby91]

I don't think this will happen..... but, if Brain Power beats UDS tomorrow... he HAS to be Arkle fav?

Footpad wouldn't beat UDS ... or Footpad would have been backed in to odds on for the Arkle already?

I am CONVINCED UDS wins tomorrow....so if he gets beaten fairly, by Brain Power.... and Brain Power was not shorter than Footpad.... I'd be bowled over. I'd have to take evasive action and question everything I thought I knew :highly_amused:

All hypothetical obviously... but how would you react?

That dosent make sense to me kev. How do you know the novices ie footpad/ sceau royal aren't better than uds. Brain power winning would no way make him fav.

 

[Kevloaf]

That dosent make sense to me kev. How do you know the novices ie footpad/ sceau royal aren't better than uds. Brain power winning would no way make him fav.

thought process would be that if Footpad could beat UDS at home, then we'd know that Willie had a novice that was better.

If Footpad was able to beat UDS, for me he'd be able to put it up to Min at least....

Doesn't mean his target would change.



IF the novices are better than the open company chasers, we'd know... - the fact it hasn't been proven (or had chance to be proven yet) is plain to see in the betting.

SS or ALtior in to open company were expected to win.... if BP wins I'll have to assume he's as good as those two.





My point is though that he ISN'T, so UDS is an absolute certainty.

 

[Kevloaf]

That dosent make sense to me kev. How do you know the novices ie footpad/ sceau royal aren't better than uds. Brain power winning would no way make him fav.

Let me put it another way..... if Brain Power beats UDS tomorrow, fairly... so he for all intents and purposes is a BETTER horse than UDS.... then I will need you to convinced me Brain Power shouldn't be odds on for the Arkle.

I can't see it happening.... but if it does, I'll need that side of the debate :highly_amused:

 

[Viking Flagship]

For me, the thing with Brain Power is all about how much weight you place on his “unsuitability for Cheltenham”. If you don’t buy into it, he’s great value at 12/1. If you do buy into it, you’ll lay him at 20s. He’s marmite.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

For me, the thing with Brain Power is all about how much weight you place on his “unsuitability for Cheltenham”. If you don’t buy into it, he’s great value at 12/1. If you do buy into it, you’ll lay him at 20s. He’s marmite.

We'll see today but I'd be surprised if he gets within 5 length of UDS. If BP wins today, I just can't have him round Cheltenham at all.

 

[doctorwu]

We'll see today but I'd be surprised if he gets within 5 length of UDS. If BP wins today, I just can't have him round Cheltenham at all.

Agree FM. If BP does win I'll be looking to lay him at the fez.

 

[Robbante]

I think if Brain Power wins then it just advertises the form of Sceau Royal, who we know acts around Cheltenham. Can’t see any way Brain Power finishes ahead of Sceau Royal at Cheltenham given he was beaten when falling at Sandown

 

[Scooby91]

Well it's a hell of a task now for brainpower the ground is now very soft, heavy in places. The plan was to back him if gd to soft or better. But deffinately one to watch for me now.

 

[Robbante]

Brain Power up ok thankfully, not sure why they ran him on that ground

 

[Kevloaf]

Brain Power up ok thankfully, not sure why they ran him on that ground

Or against a horse that would definitely stretch him...

Horrible profile for the Arkle now.



Glad that everything I know about racing hasn't been brought in to question :highly_amused:

 

[Robbante]

Or against a horse that would definitely stretch him...

Horrible profile for the Arkle now.



Glad that everything I know about racing hasn't been brought in to question :highly_amused:

I’d save him for punchestown if he were mine, give him a good break

 

[Kevloaf]

I’d save him for punchestown if he were mine, give him a good break

Is there a valuable handicap for him, right handed?

 

[Robbante]

Is there a valuable handicap for him, right handed?

Possibly. He ran well at punchestown in their Champion Hurdle last year so I imagine they’ll go there again. Don’t see the point in going to Cheltenham now, too many doubts about him acting at the track and too many horses have him covered. Especially after a hard race today on heavy ground

 

[BigChaang]

I don't think this will happen..... but, if Brain Power beats UDS tomorrow... he HAS to be Arkle fav?

Footpad wouldn't beat UDS ... or Footpad would have been backed in to odds on for the Arkle already?

I am CONVINCED UDS wins tomorrow....so if he gets beaten fairly, by Brain Power.... and Brain Power was not shorter than Footpad.... I'd be bowled over. I'd have to take evasive action and question everything I thought I knew :highly_amused:

All hypothetical obviously... but how would you react?

Sorry if this Sounds Smart , but Never fancied Brainpower for this , ( the Arkle ), Commentator said he's fine , ( I really hope so ), Gotta be Footpad's to lose Now surely ?, Although I gotta say Sceau royal impressed me at Sandown. I have had a couple of Savers on P. Mouchoir this week. Had a small win only bet early doors on B.Power , and that's it .

 

[Scooby91]

Sorry if this Sounds Smart , but Never fancied Brainpower for this , ( the Arkle ), Commentator said he's fine , ( I really hope so ), Gotta be Footpad's to lose Now surely ?, Although I gotta say Sceau royal impressed me at Sandown. I have had a couple of Savers on P. Mouchoir this week. Had a small win only bet early doors on B.Power , and that's it .

Still the exact same 5 iv thought from the start
NHH
Petit mouchoir
Footpad
Sceau royal
Brain power

North hill Harvey and sceau royal go for the kingmaker where I'd expect them to give saint calvados a good beating.
What that means in terms of form compared to the irish arkle is anyone's guess. Wouldn't be massivley suprised if PM turned over footpad in the Irish arkle. Although footpad has been visually very smart to date. I would be suprised however if saint calvados got near in the king maker.
(I'm not knocking anyone's bet on saint calvados just my honest assessment on what we've seen). I wouldn't be shocked if any of them 5 won. I'd be hugely shocked if anything outside them did.