Supreme Novices 2018

[Can't Catch Me]

I'm basically saying you know getabird beat megli khan theres no guessing there. You know he has a good chance in the supreme.

Sharjah you don't know. Mengli Kahn was still travelling well.
You dont know what his chances are in the supreme even if he wins the Deloitte be cause he hasn't beat the form horse.

Surely you'd sent the one you know what chance they've got.

But that suggests MK is the key to the whole Supreme? Knowing you can beat MK doesn't mean you know you have the best chance in the Supreme?

 

[Scooby91]

But that suggests MK is the key to the whole Supreme? Knowing you can beat MK doesn't mean you know you have the best chance in the Supreme?

For the irish horses it does imo. You have to know you can beat your own before you go over there and even think about the rest imo.

Send sharjah beat all the English horses And get done by mengli khan into 2nd. While getabird is sat in his box waiting for the ballymore. How do you think they'd feel?

 

[Kevloaf]

If sharjah was working the house down at home Id agree. But watch mullins interview after he won the slowly run race. Iv avoided him for the supreme ever since.

Basing your ante post bets on what Mullins says before/after a race for a novice hurdler is a flawed strategy IMO

and on the MK line.... if they know Getabird is 9L better than MK (And we can assume they know how good Sharjah is against Getabird).... if that is close then why not let Sharjah take on MK (as he has say 7L in hand, in their schooling races) and have GEtabird Burst the Samcro bubble...

I just think it is too much of a leap to think they believe beating MK on unsuitable ground HANDS them the Supreme...

 

[Can't Catch Me]

For the irish horses it does imo. You have to know you can beat your own before you go over there and even think about the rest imo.

It does as we stand today. But it might not if collateral form in the Deloitte suggests Sharjah has achieved something similar. It doesn't have to just come down to simply beating MK, if he hasn't been afforded that chance. If he beats Early Doors 20 lengths or something similar, then who can say he hasn't achieved the same as Getabird?

Plans are fluid. I'm pretty sure Getabird wasn't considered their number one Supreme horse last week.

 

[Scooby91]

Basing your ante post bets on what Mullins says before/after a race for a novice hurdler is a flawed strategy IMO

Makes no difference to me what he says. He had no enthusiasm what so ever he was joking about how he was no douvan and how he diddnt go there with the same confidence. And saying we will see where he fits in the pack etc.....

I'm well aware what I'm doing. And as I'm sure you do too. I'm happy to back my own judgement. And let the results do the talking

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

There is no way WPM knows exactly which races his these horses are going so it's almost a wasted discussion. We've seen countless changes to targets over the years with him so I'm not sure how anyone could be confident on end of season targets.

 

[Scooby91]

It does as we stand today. But it might not if collateral form in the Deloitte suggests Sharjah has achieved something similar. It doesn't have to just come down to simply beating MK, if he hasn't been afforded that chance. If he beats Early Doors 20 lengths or something similar, then who can say he hasn't achieved the same as Getabird?

Plans are fluid. I'm pretty sure Getabird wasn't considered their number one Supreme horse last week.

Let's wait and see for the Deloitte. And see what he can do.

 

[Scooby91]

Basing your ante post bets on what Mullins says before/after a race for a novice hurdler is a flawed strategy IMO

and on the MK line.... if they know Getabird is 9L better than MK (And we can assume they know how good Sharjah is against Getabird).... if that is close then why not let Sharjah take on MK (as he has say 7L in hand, in their schooling races) and have GEtabird Burst the Samcro bubble...

I just think it is too much of a leap to think they believe beating MK on unsuitable ground HANDS them the Supreme...

I diddnt say that last bit at all. All in saying is they will send there best to the supreme. And I believe that is getabird over sharjah.. I'm not sure sharjah beats mengli khan. And I really don't think be could put that performance in that getabird did.

I also wouldn't assume sharjah and getabird are close. For all we know mengli could have beat him and real steel by 4- 5 lengths.

 

[Kevloaf]

Moving on then... I see Claimantakinforgan is 4/6 to beat
Waterlord
First Flow
Lostintranslation
Destrier
Lisdoonvarna Lad
Lisdoonvarva Lad
McGowans Pass

in the Supreme trial on Saturday.... Lost In Translation has 2L to make up.... can't see much depth in the race in terms of Supreme form though

 

[Kevloaf]

I diddnt say that last bit at all. All in saying is they will send there best to the supreme. And I believe that is getabird over sharjah.. I'm not sure sharjah beats mengli khan. And I really don't think be could put that performance in that getabird did.

I also wouldn't assume sharjah and getabird are close. For all we know mengli could have beat him and real steel by 4- 5 lengths.

Yes, the point is, other than "Mullins enthusiam", you also don't know Sharjah wouldn't have beaten MK 15L

but Sharjah might not even win the DEloitte, so let's put a line through this now.... as Getabird is most likely better anyway :highly_amused:

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

That's a score draw lads. Good effort:highly_amused:

 

[Scooby91]

Moving on then... I see Claimantakinforgan is 4/6 to beat
Waterlord
First Flow
Lostintranslation
Destrier
Lisdoonvarna Lad
Lisdoonvarva Lad
McGowans Pass

in the Supreme trial on Saturday.... Lost In Translation has 2L to make up.... can't see much depth in the race in terms of Supreme form though

Moving on.......

Waterlord is a terrible price.

Claimantakforgan
First flow
Lost in translation.

First flow is the unknown danger for claimantakforgan he's come on massively for a hurdle. But through kalashnikov if expect claimantakforgan to take this.


Please agree :highly_amused:

 

[Scooby91]

That's a score draw lads. Good effort:highly_amused:

I was typing so much my Mrs looks suspicious.
:highly_amused:

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Let's wait and see for the Deloitte. And see what he can do.

Which is all I'm saying. Obviously it's odds on he doesn't do enough to become their number Supreme horse. But it's a possibility.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Sorry wasn't trying to keep that going... hadn't refreshed and seen the conversation had moved on!

 

[Kevloaf]

Moving on.......

Waterlord is a terrible price.

Claimantakforgan
First flow
Lost in translation.

First flow is the unknown danger for claimantakforgan he's come on massively for a hurdle. But through kalashnikov if expect claimantakforgan to take this.


Please agree :highly_amused:

Hahaha :highly_amused:

I was typing so much my Mrs looks suspicious.
:highly_amused:

:highly_amused:

I agree. I'll probably back Claiman this weekend too because I see no reason the form could be turned over...

 

[BigChaang]

I don't believe they will even decide themselves until very close to the Festival. All three have to get there fit and well first, after all.

And much can change in the next weeks, I'm sure we all agree!

Totally agree with this C.C.M.:encouragement::encouragement:

 

[Innoko]

Meant to ask.

Anyone have an idea where Sharjah and Getabird might end up at the festival?

:highly_amused:

 

[doctorwu]

Ricci had high hopes for Getabird at the start of the jumps season. Called him out as the one he was most looking for to in an interview. He probably said something else in another interview:highly_amused:

 

[jonthehammer]

Will he run them both in the supreme?