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Champion Hurdle 2018

Kevloaf said:
I think MTOY is the Pricewise tip.... just caught a bit on Facebook live and he said MTOY is a better bet than Melon at the prices
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The rare case where I'd agree with pricewise.
 
Bet365 now have a NRNB (Without Buveur D'air) market.... 1/4 the odds too

Faugheen 2/1
Yorkhill 11/4
Melon 10/3
Min 11/2
MTOY 13/2
DDS 15/2
AJ 8/1
TNO 8/1
etc etc....

I think cases can be made here.....

13/2 MTOY to be effectively in the first 4 if BVD stands up?
 
IF Faugheen made it, he's 2/1 to beat Melon and MTOY.

2/1 not to get pulled up?



Yorkhill as well, 11/4 to beat Defi Du Seuil and MTOY :confused:
 
Kevloaf said:
IF Faugheen made it, he's 2/1 to beat Melon and MTOY.

2/1 not to get pulled up?



Yorkhill as well, 11/4 to beat Defi Du Seuil and MTOY :confused:
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Could go straight there. Huge if he runs beforehand.
Saying rhat you might send him there anyway and hope he sparks on the day even if he diddnt win the Irish champion hurdle.
 
If he does go straight there... what price would he get backed in to?
Is 2/1 unreasonable to assume?

You could back 2/1 without BVD, lay off at 2/1 for the race if he does win and then you're on the reverse forecast for a nice sum.

I think :confused:
 
Cant believe that 2/1 on faugheen nrnb without Buv. As you say Kev hes 2/1 not to be pulled up
 
Had a bit more of a think about the market without and think I might put 2 pts e/w on MTOY 13/2.

I can't have him beating BVD in any circumstance bar a fall, and it is often said (and was again by Pricewise when he was tipping MTOY e/w) that an each way bet when you don't think the 'win' part can win is probably not value - which I agree with in almost all cases.

So MTOY winning would return 16.25 pts profit for a win and 1.25 pts profit if he in effectively in the first 4.

I think Faugheen OR Yorkhill would finish ahead of him...
Melon I can see finishing ahead of him, so it is clearly a price thing. If MTOY was 10/3 in this market and Melon 13/2 I'd be backing Melon.

I don't expect Faugheen or Yorkhill to run here at the moment though. I also don't expect DDS to be ahead of MTOY and none of the rest either.

13/2 seems a big each way price if only Melon turns up shorter in the betting on the day and I am willing to take the risk. If ofcourse Faugheen or Yorkhill run as well, then I'll still be expecting my stake plus 1.25 pts profit back for him coming top 4 and although there is certainly no rush to get this in the book.... it is NRNB and MTOY's odds won't be getting any higher?

Thoughts..... before I press the relevant buttons....

(also, I imagine it'll be available to cash out for full stake until anything happens in the market too!)

**edit** decided I'd test that theory and I can......*** So I have now placed the bet 2 pts e/w, but can cash out for full stake... if anyone can convinced me it is a bad bet :devilish:
 
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First single bet in the race for me today. Have backed Wicklow Brave ew at 25/1 NRNB.

He beat MTOY fair and square at Punch last year, and although he disappointed in this year, he showed when winning the County that he doesn't have a problem with the Festival.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
First single bet in the race for me today. Have backed Wicklow Brave ew at 25/1 NRNB.

He beat MTOY fair and square at Punch last year, and although he disappointed in this year, he showed when winning the County that he doesn't have a problem with the Festival.
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He's a Good horse but I wouldn't call that fair and square at punchestown. You could tell the result after 2 hurdles. A cracking ride by Patrick and far too much rope out infront for a horse of his ability.

Was exactly the same ride and team tactics that highland reel was given that beat found in the breeders cup. Soon as the gap opens and nobody follows you immediately know the result.

I thought he ran a cracking race in last years CH to be fair travelled supremely well as he did in the county.
 
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Wicklow Brave was slightly tempting in the without BVD market at 14/1 NRNB I thought.... can see the case.

Is there a chance he'll try and win the county off top weight?
 
Kevloaf said:
Had a bit more of a think about the market without and think I might put 2 pts e/w on MTOY 13/2.

I can't have him beating BVD in any circumstance bar a fall, and it is often said (and was again by Pricewise when he was tipping MTOY e/w) that an each way bet when you don't think the 'win' part can win is probably not value - which I agree with in almost all cases.

So MTOY winning would return 16.25 pts profit for a win and 1.25 pts profit if he in effectively in the first 4.

I think Faugheen OR Yorkhill would finish ahead of him...
Melon I can see finishing ahead of him, so it is clearly a price thing. If MTOY was 10/3 in this market and Melon 13/2 I'd be backing Melon.

I don't expect Faugheen or Yorkhill to run here at the moment though. I also don't expect DDS to be ahead of MTOY and none of the rest either.

13/2 seems a big each way price if only Melon turns up shorter in the betting on the day and I am willing to take the risk. If ofcourse Faugheen or Yorkhill run as well, then I'll still be expecting my stake plus 1.25 pts profit back for him coming top 4 and although there is certainly no rush to get this in the book.... it is NRNB and MTOY's odds won't be getting any higher?

Thoughts..... before I press the relevant buttons....

(also, I imagine it'll be available to cash out for full stake until anything happens in the market too!)

**edit** decided I'd test that theory and I can......*** So I have now placed the bet 2 pts e/w, but can cash out for full stake... if anyone can convinced me it is a bad bet :devilish:
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Kev,
I think a few of the younger horses are going to finish ahead of MTOY. I certainly expect Melon to finish ahead. He's had his day in this race I'm afraid. Good luck all the same as its a game of opinions.
 
doctorwu said:
Kev,
I think a few of the younger horses are going to finish ahead of MTOY. I certainly expect Melon to finish ahead. He's had his day in this race I'm afraid. Good luck all the same as its a game of opinions.
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I see the case for Melon definitely. As I said, price related for the bet I've placed... but which other two (excluding BVD obviously) do you see keeping MTOY out of the 4?

When I look through the intended runners: (in the without market)
Defi Du Seuil 15/2 - I suppose the jockey booking would give that away when it comes round to it, but MTOY would beat DDS in any race for me even this year.
The New One? 8/1 - Obviously this one isn't one of the younger ones you expect to improve haha - MTOY has him covered though anyway.
Wicklow Brave 14/1 - Had a fairly busy flat campaign after the 1L beating over MTOY last year, and althoguh 1 year younger, isn't a youngster either?
Cilaos Emery 14/1 - His 153 rating looks to be fair to me, 9 lbs to find?
Mick Jazz 16/1 - Had his day in the sun, incredibly lucky and is being aimed at a race in the USA...
Call Me Lord 20/1 - Mentioned by Pricewise as lively, would need to win betfair hurdle and proive can go left handed...
Ch'tibello 22/1 - Beaten fair and square last time out? Possible?
Pingshou 25/1 - Yet to run this season - Possible but a leap of faith needed...
Verdana Blue 33/1 - Mentioned by pricewise... biug enough to take a punt....

Not knocking what you're saying at all, just think there is nothing lurking to be afraid of and I can't see MTOY out of the first 4.
 
Kevloaf said:
I see the case for Melon definitely. As I said, price related for the bet I've placed... but which other two (excluding BVD obviously) do you see keeping MTOY out of the 4?

When I look through the intended runners: (in the without market)
Defi Du Seuil 15/2 - I suppose the jockey booking would give that away when it comes round to it, but MTOY would beat DDS in any race for me even this year.
The New One? 8/1 - Obviously this one isn't one of the younger ones you expect to improve haha - MTOY has him covered though anyway.
Wicklow Brave 14/1 - Had a fairly busy flat campaign after the 1L beating over MTOY last year, and althoguh 1 year younger, isn't a youngster either?
Cilaos Emery 14/1 - His 153 rating looks to be fair to me, 9 lbs to find?
Mick Jazz 16/1 - Had his day in the sun, incredibly lucky and is being aimed at a race in the USA...
Call Me Lord 20/1 - Mentioned by Pricewise as lively, would need to win betfair hurdle and proive can go left handed...
Ch'tibello 22/1 - Beaten fair and square last time out? Possible?
Pingshou 25/1 - Yet to run this season - Possible but a leap of faith needed...
Verdana Blue 33/1 - Mentioned by pricewise... biug enough to take a punt....

Not knocking what you're saying at all, just think there is nothing lurking to be afraid of and I can't see MTOY out of the first 4.
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Kev,
Not sure VB going here so not interested in him. I think CE could make the frame if he's ridden correctly. Had to do most of the donkey work when he got chinned close home by MJ. MJ will be running on up the hill as I always think he'd be better at 2.4m. Pinshou would be interesting if turning up.
As for MTOY I just have a nagging feeling that this years race will end in disappointment.
 
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Does anyone think Chitbello is overpriced in the W/O market at 22/1? He wasn't beaten far by MTOY at Cheltenham in December and that was his first run for almost a year. If he improved for the run he'd be right in the mix.
 
As I was doing it I couldn't really rule him out at the price, hence the possible. Only 1L behind Melon too in the same race?

I feel like he's quite well tried though and not up to the grade? I'd need to properly look back through I think.
 
You could be right Kev. I had a fair bet on him last season only for him to be a non runner in the morning of the race. I'm fairly sure his owner put £5k each way on him a few days before the race with Corals and lost it because they weren't NRNB.
 
Yeah I'd forgotten he was a last minute withdrawal. I was at the course and didn't realise on the day

How many definite runners are we going to get... if it is 8 or less that I can be confident of I might end up backing everything.:devilish:
 
Just looking through, Ch'tibello beat MTOY 4.25L at Haydock in November 16 on heavy ground. Melodic Rendezvous split them though... Old Guard last of 4....

So it isn't wild to fancy Ch'tibello at the price he is I suppose, albeit plenty of ways to say that isn't MTOY's true running.
 
Scooby91 said:
He's a Good horse but I wouldn't call that fair and square at punchestown. You could tell the result after 2 hurdles. A cracking ride by Patrick and far too much rope out infront for a horse of his ability.

Was exactly the same ride and team tactics that highland reel was given that beat found in the breeders cup. Soon as the gap opens and nobody follows you immediately know the result.

I thought he ran a cracking race in last years CH to be fair travelled supremely well as he did in the county.
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You could tell the result after 2 hurdles?! I think you must be a better judge than me Scooby. Because that was the race WB almost refused to race.... gave them all a start and was still last after two hurdles! He didn't take it up until about 6f out.

Take your point about him being given too much rope when he went clear, but I think it's unfair to say he didn't win fair and square. It takes a good deal of energy to put that distance between you and the field... and although they closed he still had plenty at the line to my eyes. I also think that should have suited MTOY pretty well.
 
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