Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle 2018

[jono]

Getabird entered in the 3m Guinness Novice Hurdle (Grade 2) at Limerick on the 29th of December. A race Willies won in the past with the likes of Faugheen and last year with Penhill. If he handles 3m in heavy going well you'd have to think they would be more inclined to go down the (less competitive on paper) Albert Bartlett route and stick to 2m 5f with Next Destination.

Good spot Sean. Ballyward out tomorrow over 2m4. Made a big impression last season and I'd hope add himself to the mix of Ballyward/Albert Bartlett options along with Getabird and Next Destination as well

 

[Viking Flagship]

Fabulous Saga possibly too big at 20s with Hills after a spirited performance today battling back really well to win the race Penhill won last year. Looks held by Cracking Smart on earlier form but seems to have improved. Possibly prefers soft ground, though did win a good ground bumper.

I’m a bit confused by the top of the market in this one. OTBS seemingly heading to the Ballymore, Next Destination seemingly having a turn of foot that surely makes him more suited to the shorter race (could even be a left field candidate for the Supreme? Stranger things have happened). Samcro won’t be going here.

So basically Cracking Smart is the first in the list who you can be confident is heading here. Seemed to clearly want further when a staying on 2nd to Next Destination and at this stage he probably rates a decent value bet at 16s in a market that could change quite significantly as targets for others become more certain.

 

[Kevloaf]

The thing I do like about Fabulous Saga is you KNOW it gets the trip and no doubt this would be the target. ALso a plus Penhill won the race last year, Mullins being a creature of habit and all. I also like the fact they are getting runs in to the horse because I think you need a battle hardened horse willing to put everything in to win the Albert Bartlett!

Negatives would be that I tihnk it'll could be the Mullins second string as Next Destination would be fav here, and not fav in the Ballymore, and therefore would probably be double figures on the day. Also that Fabulous Saga might NEED the ground? Plus, as you said, Cracking Smart does look to have her quite well held?

20/1 certainly tempting though... I can't quite decide.

 

[Viking Flagship]

Me neither. I find I can be easily persuaded when a firm is a standout price like Hills 20/1. At the general 14s (only 10 with Stan James!) I’d be happy to leave alone but 20s looks value for a horse with a lot of ticks.

The other decision I need to make in this race is whether to cash out my OTBS bet - after all of Henderson’s comments he’s surely now going Ballymore?? I’m tempted to reinvest those pts on Cracking Smart and Fabulous Saga.

 

[Kevloaf]

Me neither. I find I can be easily persuaded when a firm is a standout price like Hills 20/1. At the general 14s (only 10 with Stan James!) I’d be happy to leave alone but 20s looks value for a horse with a lot of ticks.

The other decision I need to make in this race is whether to cash out my OTBS bet - after all of Henderson’s comments he’s surely now going Ballymore?? I’m tempted to reinvest those pts on Cracking Smart and Fabulous Saga.

I put 1.5 pts on Fabulous Saga to win in the end :encouragement:

I also cashed out the OTBS AB bets because I think missing the Challow hurdle eliminates any chance at all they step him up. There was a small chance Hendo would go AB after that race if things went against the horse.... but now, they'll have an easier prep or just go straight to the Ballymore. Cash out.

 

[KingSprinterSacre]

In case anyone on the booze like me missed this lol -
Nicky Henderson‏Verified account @sevenbarrows · Dec 26
Sadly ON THE BLIND SIDE has banged a hind joint which has forced him out of the G1 Challow Hurdle @NewburyRacing on Saturday. Obviously it is a real shame but he’ll now have his mid-season break and we hope to have him ready for a prep race before @CheltenhamRaces.

 

[BigChaang]

Just read on the sporting life website that Fergal o'brien has confirmed that yesterdays winner Poetic rythm will go straight to
Cheltenham festival for the albert Bartlett hurdle , .good new's for anyone that's backed him already.
He's quoted at 14-1 .

 

[Scooby91]

Just backed poetic rythym 25/1 ew for the bartlett.
I'd liked him since his opener at chepstow. All his form reads well and he's a tough consistent horse, kilbricken storms form as a stayer works out well for me, so to have him so far back Is a good sign.
Was going to wait bud Lydia has just put him up so her followers may take the price away.

 

[Robbante]

Just backed poetic rythym 25/1 ew for the bartlett.
I'd liked him since his opener at chepstow. All his form reads well and he's a tough consistent horse, kilbricken storms form as a stayer works out well for me, so to have him so far back Is a good sign.
Was going to wait bud Lydia has just put him up so her followers may take the price away.

Gladly follow you in on that. He's got a decent level of form, and he seems to be exactly the hardy kind of type you need for the Bartlett. A lot of the market principles for the race i have covered, yet i'd only be confident only a couple will pitch up in this race. We know this is the target for Poetic Rhythm and with that knowledge alone he's overpriced at 25s

 

[Scooby91]

I have this race narrowed down to.

Blow by blow
Poetic rythym
Next destination (poss ballymore)
On the blind side (bally more)
Getabird (poss ballymore)
Duc des genievres
Early doors (prob ballymore)
Red jack
cracking smart
Jetz
Sam Brown
Discorama
Momella (mare)


Have backed.

Poetic rythym ew 25s
Cracking smart 14/1
Next destination 25/1
Getabird 25/1
On the blind side 16/1

Could easily have 4 non runners there. But in time will sort itself out.

 

[Robbante]

I have this race narrowed down to.

Blow by blow
Poetic rythym
Next destination (poss ballymore)
On the blind side (bally more)
Getabird (poss ballymore)
Duc des genievres
Early doors (prob ballymore)
Red jack
cracking smart
Jetz
Sam Brown
Discorama
Momella (mare)

I'd also have Ravenhill Road in there. Like the profile of that one for this race, Ellison has been insistent that he needs 3 miles. Slate House could be aimed here i guess but unlikely, and i like the Henderson horse Monbeg Legend (the plan was always to start him back up early this year)

 

[Scooby91]

I'd also have Ravenhill Road in there. Like the profile of that one for this race, Ellison has been insistent that he needs 3 miles. Slate House could be aimed here i guess but unlikely, and i like the Henderson horse Monbeg Legend (the plan was always to start him back up early this year)

None of them 3 would entertain me personally . Fabulous saga which I'm sure someone will mention only helps me in ruling out the ones who's finished behind him .

Every one sees it differently though and I'm sure there will be plenty of people who have ruled out the ones iv backed.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I'd also have Ravenhill Road in there. Like the profile of that one for this race, Ellison has been insistent that he needs 3 miles. Slate House could be aimed here i guess but unlikely, and i like the Henderson horse Monbeg Legend (the plan was always to start him back up early this year)

What makes you think Early Doors is a possible for this Scooby? I've backed him for the Supreme... could maybe see him stepping up for the Ballymore, but struggle to see how he would run in this?

Edit: Sorry replied with the wrong quote there... meant to reply to Scooby's list!

 

[Scooby91]

What makes you think Early Doors is a possible for this Scooby? I've backed him for the Supreme... could maybe see him stepping up for the Ballymore, but struggle to see how he would run in this?

Edit: Sorry replied with the wrong quote there... meant to reply to Scooby's list!

Because I see him as deffinately being better for a step up from 2. I think ballymore. But I wouldn't be shocked if he stepped up to 2 1/2 And then was stepped up again at a later date.
Certainly in time he wants further.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I must admit I see him as a real 2 miler!

See Patrick has said they hope Next Destination turns out to be a Ballymore horse.... Which is at odds with what PP think.

 

[Scooby91]

I must admit I see him as a real 2 miler!

See Patrick has said they hope Next Destination turns out to be a Ballymore horse.... Which is at odds with what PP think.

If he is .
And huge ask but he wins this well.
Surely deserves to be shorter than samcro???

 

[Can't Catch Me]

If he is .
And huge ask but he wins this well.
Surely deserves to be shorter than samcro???

Yeah if he wins this well, he should be fav for the race, no doubt. Have a feeling the Samcro hype machine won't see that happen though.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Patrick's quote:

"We are hoping at this stage that he might make into a horse for the Ballymore Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham and we'll find out a bit more after Sunday".

Samcro's well being will certainly affect their decision I imagine.

 

[Scooby91]

Patrick's quote:

"We are hoping at this stage that he might make into a horse for the Ballymore Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham and we'll find out a bit more after Sunday".

Samcro's well being will certainly affect their decision I imagine.

If they win this (big if) why would they be scared to take on samcro? they've done far more than him.

Very unlikely samcro makes any difference to mullins plans he's had and taken on plenty of horses of samcros stature

 

[Kevloaf]

What set of events would we need to see to get Next Destination in the Ballymore now?

If he gets beaten?

If he wins they'll not be scared to take on Samcro, as ND's form will be in the book and Mullins has plenty for either race.