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FJ Ante Post yankee

Kevloaf said:
LKooking through this thread....

e/w yankee....

Elegant Escape - 4 miler
Al Boum Photo - JLT
The World's End - Stayers
Minella Rocco - Gold Cup

Confident of the target for EE, certain of the target for TWE and MR. Bit of a punt with ABP but I'm happy to take the risk and its an open enough race.
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Is this the confirmed 2018 ante post each way FJ life changing yankee ?
 
Kevloaf said:
Elegant Escape - 4 miler
Al Boum Photo - JLT
The World's End - Stayers
Minella Rocco - Gold Cup

212939/1 with WH

19499/1 with BV or SJ

or 1/4 the odds with 365 and they're 194921/1
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Done.
Might throw these 4 in with Cause of Causes too who is still an each way price.

amazing difference in prices because my acca is just over 112500/1, beggars can't be choosers though...
 
Bar the triumph hurdle, We are now at the time of the year where there is very little value in the market. Especially if your backing ew. The only thing that changes the prices in a big way in the next few weeks is injuries.
The day of the race markets are so competative now with prices and place terms I personally will only be placing a handful of bets if any, until then .
 
Scooby91 said:
Bar the triumph hurdle, We are now at the time of the year where there is very little value in the market. Especially if your backing ew. The only thing that changes the prices in a big way in the next few weeks is injuries.
The day of the race markets are so competative now with prices and place terms I personally will only be placing a handful of bets if any, until then .
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Very true that, I remember having a glut of AP last Jan and very few of them were a better than I could have claimed on the day, and several never made it.
Next year maybe we set a deadline of the Cheltenham Nov meeting....
 
Istabraq said:
Very true that, I remember having a glut of AP last Jan and very few of them were a better than I could have claimed on the day, and several never made it.
Next year maybe we set a deadline of the Cheltenham Nov meeting....
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I actually didn't get involved until January last year and the majority I backed went off significantly shorter, what I didn't manage though was any winners. This year I think I have already done 90% of my AP bets and tend to agree most (certainly not all) of the best value on potential winners has now gone.

I'm on the above Yankees horses but only small stake win trebles and e/w accas.
 
Just to play devils advocate .... all very well and good saying value is early on ... but that's before we see how horses perform. Can you honestly say there is skill in picking out Samcro for example, at double figure odds. Looks Like value now but we placed those bets before the horse jumped a hurdle .....
 
I think what I'm trying to say is that it is a darn sight easier trying to select a horse at a big price that ends up going off as one of the market principles for a race at the Festival before the end of the year (I guess I mean 'realistic' winners not 'potential' winners above). I wouldn't argue that I have any particular skill in being able to identify this early season value as most of my info has come from you guys who I believe are skilled. So yes if a number of you think Samcro is likely overpriced at 14/1 any race in August - I'm in :very_drunk: Hoping next year that I may be able to contribute more myself as I feel I'm learning a fair deal.
 
Kevloaf said:
Just to play devils advocate .... all very well and good saying value is early on ... but that's before we see how horses perform. Can you honestly say there is skill in picking out Samcro for example, at double figure odds. Looks Like value now but we placed those bets before the horse jumped a hurdle .....
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The skill is not knowing the ones that are sure fire winners. The skill is knowing the ones that are going to shorten dramatically at the right time. With little risk of losing they're next race. No skill in samcro at all. But was common sense that he was hyped up to the hilt. Hes 16s and 14s any race. Hes also going to be hyped for multiple races. And to back him before he wins a nothing race at 1/5.

The skill is putting enough on relative to your own stakes at 14s any race. to be able to sit back relax and leave him well alone. Whilst looking for the next one.

Make your own list, think of poss entries.
Scouring entries when they come out for the exchange prices.

That s how I see it anyway.
 
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It depends how people punt though ... that
What you've works for us ... but sometimes other horses getting injured makes a price and there is an element of luck. Its a bit like saying "well played" to someone who wins the lottery.

My point is, because my entire strategy is based around beating multiple horses sp's its easy to make it look like I get great value and I agree when process are bigger early season, Its a good idea..... if I backed one horse a race, Or just wanted the winner ... the more evidence and form better so that punter could argue anyone on at bigger is lucky.

......

However, I believe you make your own luck and I'm just offering up the devils advocate opinion haha
 
Scooby91 said:
The skill is not knowing the ones that are sure fire winners. The skill is knowing the ones that are going to shorten dramatically at the right time. With little risk of losing they're next race. No skill in samcro at all. But was common sense that he was hyped up to the hilt. Hes 16s and 14s any race. Hes also going to be hyped for multiple races. And to back him before he wins a nothing race at 1/5.

The skill is putting enough on relative to your own stakes at 14s any race. to be able to sit back relax and leave him well alone. Whilst looking for the next one.

Make your own list, think of poss entries.
Scouring entries when they come out for the exchange prices.

That s how I see it anyway.
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Quick example. I know saldier is a mullins ricci juvenile hurdler. Riccis only juvenile. I don't know his ability over hurdles but hes decent on the flat. It dosent matter if I think he can beat Apple's shakira right now.

. HES NOT ENTERED

He's 40/1 now.



Hypothetically
Iv just seen entries for Friday that have just come out. Hes entered up im a maiden juvenile I'm aware of the other runners. Not much in there.
1st I'll check the exchange if he's not in there add him.
Soon as he's declared whichever price is bigger exchange or books I'll pull the trigger.

He wins a nothing race at 2/7 easily he's in the right colours gets hyped up before you know it he's single figures and done nothing.
Then leave him alone find the next one ....
 
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Kevloaf said:
It depends how people punt though ... that
What you've works for us ... but sometimes other horses getting injured makes a price and there is an element of luck. Its a bit like saying "well played" to someone who wins the lottery.

My point is, because my entire strategy is based around beating multiple horses sp's its easy to make it look like I get great value and I agree when process are bigger early season, Its a good idea..... if I backed one horse a race, Or just wanted the winner ... the more evidence and form better so that punter could argue anyone on at bigger is lucky.

......

However, I believe you make your own luck and I'm just offering up the devils advocate opinion haha
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Yeh I know what you mean. If seen enough to take a view on who I think will go very close now now in the novice races/ bumper, Complete luck that a generous cash out service was offered.

But the novice chases and championship races my view of who I think will win, has changed very little since July. Because the forms there to see, all Be it the novice chases they have to jump a fence but ie footpad hes already jumped the french fixed brush hurdles multiple times.

If your starting to make a book now. You won't have much of an advantage on the day unless you have some luck and are very selective. Especially with place terms. Price boosts... And a very competative set of books . And ofcourse no injury worries.
 
Sorry lads but you're talking rubbish.

To say there is no skill in backing Samcro at 16/1, when his current price is 2/1, is wrong. I generally don't make a book in races, and he is my only bet in the Ballymore, having backed him in April before he was priced up.

To my eye, his bumper performances were special, it wasn't a bet struck on hype.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Sorry lads but you're talking rubbish.

To say there is no skill in backing Samcro at 16/1, when his current price is 2/1, is wrong. I generally don't make a book in races, and he is my only bet in the Ballymore, having backed him in April before he was priced up.
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What's the skill?
Just out of interest.


Hes my biggest winner in the book of been very selective in terms of stakes in the ballymore. I have multiple runners but at huge prices. I see no skill in samcro and I'd win huge on him.
 
The skill is believing that the horse is overpriced. His performance in bumpers was eye catching - the best I've seen since Faugheen. To say that I'm lucky because I backed a horse 8 months ago has riled me slightly:highly_amused::devilish:
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Sorry lads but you're talking rubbish.

To say there is no skill in backing Samcro at 16/1, when his current price is 2/1, is wrong. I generally don't make a book in races, and he is my only bet in the Ballymore, having backed him in April before he was priced up.

To my eye, his bumper performances were special, it wasn't a bet struck on hype.
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It's a different discipline though ... and I picked Samcro purposefully as an extreme example ... but you know perfectly well that bumpers don't a always translate.

You said yourself at one point before he ran over hurdles in response to me asking about the value of his literal bumper form and the answer was the same ... 'you saw something special ' .... you can class that as skill in the same way that I'm sure trainers have a skill in knowing when something is special too .... but for most of us, I backed Samcro in the hype of people better than me saying he was special ...
 
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Faugheen_Machine said:
The skill is believing that the horse is overpriced. His performance in bumpers was eye catching - the best I've seen since Faugheen. To say that I'm lucky because I backed a horse 8 months ago has riled me slightly:highly_amused::devilish:
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There's no skill if youve left it at that and he gets beat by something loke on the blind side who people have at 3 figures and now the price is gone.
The skill I see is backing him leaving him alone and looling at others of value in the race. :)

Everybody does it different though.
 
I will also say if samcro wins the ballymore. Iv completely wasted some of my time lookong away from him and my 14/1 any race has gone to 10/1 ballymore due to making a book.
And your bet would be far better. Whether I have the 1st 4 home in the race or not.

The sad thing is I enjoy spending my time trying to work out who beats the ones iv backed and getting the big prices on them.
I also like to make sure I am making good money at the festival and the vast majority of races as I treat it as 2nd earnings. So I must admit I don't like leaving it at 1 in a race.
 
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