Noted in Mark Howard’s email update yesterday that Topofthegame is being switched back to hurdles (aim the lanzarote hurdle on Jan 13th). Assuming that is for the rest of the season I find it a baffling decision. Jumped well enough until coming down on chase debut, and if ever a horse was to improve for fences it would be this huge, scopey sort
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RSA Chase 2018
- Thread starter jono
- Start date
Yanworth would be my pick for this race but wouldn’t be at all confident currently that he’ll end up here. Monalee sure to be there or thereabouts, and I doubt bookies will miss the opportunity to trim him a point or two after a likely easy win over xmas
Cracking little race today. A shame presenting percy dosent run here to see if he ran under par in better company or what I believe to be that he was beaten fair and square.
Backed a few ew today that I believe are overpriced
Shattered love 16/1
Moulin au vent 16/1
Jury duty 12/1
Already on rathvinden 48.0
Monalee 16/1
Both for the rsa.
And will probably back something out of this race at a price that goes close ew for the rsa.
Backed a few ew today that I believe are overpriced
Shattered love 16/1
Moulin au vent 16/1
Jury duty 12/1
Already on rathvinden 48.0
Monalee 16/1
Both for the rsa.
And will probably back something out of this race at a price that goes close ew for the rsa.
Yeah looks a good race with 7 of the 8 feasible winners!
Interesting that Mark Walsh is riding for Gigginstown on Shattered Love - can't remember that happening before.
Laughable that the 1st 2 beat presenting percy yet he's the one who shortened in his box to 7/1 after winning his 3m5 handicap last time.
His price won't go anywhere but I'm not a million miles away from backing black corton ew. Atleast he consistently has the form in the book.
His price won't go anywhere but I'm not a million miles away from backing black corton ew. Atleast he consistently has the form in the book.
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BigChaang
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Did that last weekend Scooby , i was a little surprised that betfred were still 20-1. and still were earlier.
ryanh97
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Could a pattern arise between Monalee and last year's winner Might Bite? Fell over Xmas when otherwise running well, Might Bite came out to win at Donny yet still got criticised for it. Went off a bigger price than he should have the RSA and ends up jumping them senseless. Could very much see that happening again
darlojim
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If he seems to be Ok after being reported to be sore after falling them yeh i could see this. Would like to see him out again before cheltenham though.
ryanh97
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Would almost need to see him out again and win because of that haunting stat that no horse has ever won a chase at Chelt on the back of a Fall last time out?
I had a panic bet on Monalee in an each way double with Cause of Causes pre-race and have cashed it out :highly_amused: If he is enterd up I'd be tempted again at the slightly bigger odds
Anyone who liked Monalee before the race today I don't think could be negative about him now despite the fall. I'm willing to forgive a novice falling especially when he is trained by HdB and his seasonal debut was almost spot on. Faugheen mentioned elsewhere though that it was a nasty fall and he was kicked several times on the floor so you'd want to see if anymore updates come out over the next week?
Used to be rock solid and something I always checked but both Black Hercules and Ballyalton defied this in 2016. Although a negative, I no longer rule a horse out where as I would have before.
Just a thought - the cash out offer may not last long (does seem like an error) but have you come onto something here Kev...essentially a risk free bet? Bet on a horse with 365 before the race in the hope that it will win and shorten for the festival, else cash out straight after, essentially a NRNB for all races/horses?
Used to be rock solid and something I always checked but both Black Hercules and Ballyalton defied this in 2016. Although a negative, I no longer rule a horse out where as I would have before.
Just a thought - the cash out offer may not last long (does seem like an error) but have you come onto something here Kev...essentially a risk free bet? Bet on a horse with 365 before the race in the hope that it will win and shorten for the festival, else cash out straight after, essentially a NRNB for all races/horses?
It was my go-to thing to check straight after the race and it wasn't available to cash out. The RSA market had been completely suspended.
When I checked later on, they'd pushed Monalee out to 7/1 from 6/1 but I could cash out. I can't remember though if it was the exact full amount, or whether it was for the same 'return' if I'd placed it again with the offered stake but at the 'higher' odds. In fact, the latter makes the most sense....
Risky, but only to lose a small part and obviously if it'd have shortened I'd have been able to cash out for the full amount?
When I checked later on, they'd pushed Monalee out to 7/1 from 6/1 but I could cash out. I can't remember though if it was the exact full amount, or whether it was for the same 'return' if I'd placed it again with the offered stake but at the 'higher' odds. In fact, the latter makes the most sense....
Risky, but only to lose a small part and obviously if it'd have shortened I'd have been able to cash out for the full amount?
I assume the value of the cash out option will fluctuate throughout the race, depending on how the selection is performing?
Was suspended during the race .... I think it was done on the adjusted ante-post market afterwards?
From what I can gather, if the odds are NOW shorter or EQUAL to what they are in your bet, you can cash out for full amount of stake.... if the odds are HIGHER, they factor in what return you'd get if you re-invested the 'cash out value' on the higher odds. (I hope that makes sense, finding it hard to explain)
All my open bets or bets that I have cashed out were for either the stake back in full or higher (multiples with some legs won i.e Might Bite KG) but it would make sense for the cash out to also be smaller, which is what you would expect.
Whilst this seems to be an option i'll certainly be keener to use bet365 If I think there's a chance the bet could go either way. Not fallproof but a reduced risk
Whilst this seems to be an option i'll certainly be keener to use bet365 If I think there's a chance the bet could go either way. Not fallproof but a reduced risk
Yeah that makes sense. I had thought this may have been a temporary 'rick' in the system (and would at some point be rectified) but probably not when that's the case
Certainly going to be putting the majority of bets on with 365 whilst in continues.... nice option to have compared to no option at all as you say.
I cashed out a Charli Parcs one for the CH at almost half haha. Things like Melon for the Arkle at full stake. Odd!
Which Might Bite multiple did you cash out? I've left all mine..... one rolling on to Apple's Jade at 15/1, one with Footpad at 15/1 too. No chance I'm cashing those in :triumphant:
Oh none what so all...they are just ones where the cash out is now obviously higher than the stake.
A mix of Apples Jade (the same bet i think), Samcro, Buveur and Altior so no chance i'm cashing any out :triumphant:
Ah that makes more sense! I thought it would have been an odd to do!
So, who wins the RSA? I'm a little surprised as scooby highlighted that Presenting Percy has had a trim for this race!
Black Corton just cannot get my juices flowing. Surely, surely the Kauto Star was their day... the end of a tremendous run? Tempted by the 20s just because I think it'lll be shorter. What is the Kauto Star winners record actually.... isn't it quite poor BUT doesn't include Coneygree who won the Gold Cup? I'm pretty confident that is the 'trend' which I am pretty happy to ignore.... although I don't need many reasons not to fancy Black Corton.