RSA Chase 2018

[Can't Catch Me]

IO owes me a few quid. Was one of my main antepost bets last year for the Neptune.

 

[Hurricane fly]

I had bits and pieces for him in the JLT but with those comments it does look like RSA is the way

 

[Al Ferof]

Finians Oscar going to 3m in the Kauto Star next.

I never envisaged the RSA but it it is now an option. Personally think 2m4f at Cheltenham would be fine in his novice year but he certainly has a stayers engine.

 

[KingSprinterSacre]

Finians Oscar going to 3m in the Kauto Star next.

I never envisaged the RSA but it it is now an option. Personally think 2m4f at Cheltenham would be fine in his novice year but he certainly has a stayers engine.

Thought 2m4 around Cheltenham up the hill would have been grand.
If hes judged on today he wouldn't win anything but Tizzard must be cursing himself all the way home this evening, a really poor decision.

 

[Kevloaf]

Thought 2m4 around Cheltenham up the hill would have been grand.
If hes judged on today he wouldn't win anything but Tizzard must be cursing himself all the way home this evening, a really poor decision.

Cursing himself? Better to find out today than in March?

Got to wonder how much he rates the RSA compared to the JLT?

He ruled out the RSA which just shows how quickly things can change!

 

[KingSprinterSacre]

Cursing himself? Better to find out today than in March?

Got to wonder how much he rates the RSA compared to the JLT?

He ruled out the RSA which just shows how quickly things can change!

There was no need to find out in march Kev about the shorter trip. Over fences - certainly last day he won staying on. It was never going to suit. Going back in trip made no sense whatsoever. You don't run in races just to rule later targets out, you run to suit the horse.
Apologies I don't phrase these too well, and I don't want to go into too much because I don't like to see anyone do their dough so I don't want to seem like i'm having a go.
I have him backed for the JLT and not the RSA and I wont be rebacking in the longer race until I see that today has not done proper harm to the horses confidence. I'm genuinely very disappointed in Tizzard.

 

[Kevloaf]

You can't say it was never going to suit ... I appreciate that's absolutely right but they genuinly thought he was good enough to win the Arkle and was backed as I'd that was the case today.

I thought the horse was good enough despite it not being good optimum trip. .. as top class horses can.

Today, for me, he has proven to not be a superstar ... which could be argued anyway as he got beaten by Bacardys ... but I don't blame Tizzard for aiming high and finding out now?

Don't worry about what you've backed ... I can take it on the chin. I'm convinced I was right that the Arkle would have been the target before he ran ... which I gambled on being a good bet at 16/1 .... now that was before he ran, when he did it raised question marks about him being taken off his feet but I thought he was good enough to over come that! Turns out I was wrong so now the JLT looks more suitable .... If he'd have been 4/1 I wouldn't have had the bet ... but as he was backed in to fav today I think I was not alone!

I agree about not backing for the RSA at this stage ... I'm disappointed with the horse, not trainer though.

Not the first or last time I'll be wrong though, sorry to anyone i convinced to follow me in!

 

[KingSprinterSacre]

Theres no need to apologize to anyone. You are one of the best posters on this forum (I follow you on twitter too mate lol). You took a strong view and put up your reasons for this. Everyone needs to follow their gut in this sport, sometimes it pays off sometimes it doesn't. I followed you in on Will Court after one of your posts. Sitting on 12s now about a horse who is as low as 5s. It was the smart cover for FO and well highlighted.
I find it hard to get the tone right in typing messages on forums, so apologies again if I came across wrong. But P.S I am disappointed in the trainer lol.

 

[Kevloaf]

Haha that's very kind! Not sure you'll get much out of following me on Twitter though :highly_amused:

 

[Vautour]

Theres no need to apologize to anyone. You are one of the best posters on this forum (I follow you on twitter too mate lol). You took a strong view and put up your reasons for this. Everyone needs to follow their gut in this sport, sometimes it pays off sometimes it doesn't. I followed you in on Will Court after one of your posts. Sitting on 12s now about a horse who is as low as 5s. It was the smart cover for FO and well highlighted.
I find it hard to get the tone right in typing messages on forums, so apologies again if I came across wrong. But P.S I am disappointed in the trainer lol.

I was at sandown today and was listening to Tizzard chat to a connection after he had spoken to the press. Sounds like Robbie Power told him the horse doesn't know what he is doing and doesn't know his job which would be very concerning. His jumping has been iffy/poor in all three starts and from that comment I don't think it is likely to greatly improve. I have backed FO in a lot of multiples for the jlt, some which are looking pretty good, and am a bit disappointed they are now saying rsa. He looked very good coming up the hill last time out but wonder if the presence of death duty and willoughby court is making them think rsa. Either way I can't say I hold a great deal of hope in any race on hearing his comments today.

 

[KingSprinterSacre]

Haha that's very kind! Not sure you'll get much out of following me on Twitter though :highly_amused:

same with me on twitter, but I recognized the name lol

 

[KingSprinterSacre]

I was at sandown today and was listening to Tizzard chat to a connection after he had spoken to the press. Sounds like Robbie Power told him the horse doesn't know what he is doing and doesn't know his job which would be very concerning. His jumping has been iffy/poor in all three starts and from that comment I don't think it is likely to greatly improve. I have backed FO in a lot of multiples for the jlt, some which are looking pretty good, and am a bit disappointed they are now saying rsa. He looked very good coming up the hill last time out but wonder if the presence of death duty and willoughby court is making them think rsa. Either way I can't say I hold a great deal of hope in any race on hearing his comments today.

Thanks for that, that is worrying. They would be safer getting him a confidence booster or two if possible against weaker opposition instead of jumping back in against grade 1 animals perhaps.

 

[BigChaang]

Theres no need to apologize to anyone. You are one of the best posters on this forum (I follow you on twitter too mate lol). You took a strong view and put up your reasons for this. Everyone needs to follow their gut in this sport, sometimes it pays off sometimes it doesn't. I followed you in on Will Court after one of your posts. Sitting on 12s now about a horse who is as low as 5s. It was the smart cover for FO and well highlighted.
I find it hard to get the tone right in typing messages on forums, so apologies again if I came across wrong. But P.S I am disappointed in the trainer lol.

I second this ! . , but i don't follow you on twitter Kev .:highly_amused::triumphant:

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Pleased to see PP cut Invitation Only to 20/1 and they now have him the same price in both this and the JLT.

 

[Kevloaf]

Pleased to see PP cut Invitation Only to 20/1 and they now have him the same price in both this and the JLT.

Yeah that's a great sign. Well done, hard to beat PP to a price!

 

[Bayoffreedom]

It was actually a paraphrased quote from the trainer, Kev. I think he's as confused as everyone else.

My view, he's not good enough to win a standard RSA but very much up to the NH Chase if they get him right on the day. Credit to them for not fiddling with him for the Irish National.

Interesting that he's not even entered for the 3m Grade 1 at Leopardstown at Christmas.

 

[Kevloaf]

Interesting that he's not even entered for the 3m Grade 1 at Leopardstown at Christmas.

What would your educated guess be on target BOF?

 

[Kevloaf]

Having a little re-think on Monalee, as I am only on in a double and a trixie (albeit both look quite good at the moment!)
One of the horses I haven't fully bought into yet compared to what I would consider the majority, so I am going to do some thinking "out-loud"....

1. I thought I'd look at his debut over fences first, which was impressive as he was last off the bridle, and only needed to be pushed out to win by 6L versus Any Second Now. It is a shame Invitation Only fell in the race early on, as he won next time, also beating Any Second Now over same distance (20f) by an easy 4.25L.

2. Second I thought I'd look at hurdles form and on their hurdles form, over 20f when they were beaten by Death Duty, Monalee had 1.5L in hand (2nd) over IO (3rd).

Point 1 and 2 lead me to believe that Monalee is a better horse than Invitation Only over 20f. Although I could see the case for backing IO at 3 times the price.... HOWEVER, the unknown for IO is how he'll fair up in trip.... whereas Monalee had a 2nd in the Albert Bartlett over 3m so we have more evidence that he does stay. These two factors probably explain the price difference between these two specifically?

3. Third thing - tried to look at past winners of the race Monalee won on debut to work out a target (one of my favourite things to do, however this is yet another occasion that proved to be fruitless....)
2016 Haymount (Placed at 33/1 in 4 miler)
2015 Outlander (Fell at 6/1 in JLT)
2014 Valsuer Lido (Placed at 9/2 in JLT)
2013 Champagne Fever (Placed at 11/4 Arkle) :sorrow:

The most ironic "stat" is that none of the winners actually ran in the RSA, although obviously won't pay too much attention to that??

4. Fourth point - Trainer comments - from stable tour...

We’re aiming him at a beginners chase in late October or early November. We might start him off over two-and-a-half miles and potentially move up in trip later on. He won his point-to-point and has always looked like a chaser in the making, so he’s obviously one we are really looking forward to.

After chase debut...

De Bromhead said: "I'm delighted and that's what you dream they'd start like.
"Davy gave him a super ride and he jumped great. He was deadly and I'm really happy.
"We bought him after he won his point-to-point so I haven't had to do a whole lot (with his jumping).
"He's a very good jumper and was always great over hurdles. We always hoped he'd improve over fences and that would be his game, that's what we bought him for.
"He's in the Drinmore but that was probably just to keep his options open. I'd imagine we'll be looking at the three miler at Leopardstown (over Christmas) and see how we go there.
"He's proven over the trip over hurdles and that was our plan originally.
"He was one of the ones you'd be dreaming of during the summer and it's nice to get this out of the way.
"With any of those top horses their first run over fences you want to see that they do naturally take to it as much as they just jump.
"You can say that they'll be a better horse over fences but sometimes it doesn't materialise. You couldn't have asked for much more.
On the possibility of targeting the RSA Chase at Cheltenham:- "It's a race that I've always been a little bit wary of. I've had the odd runner in it but not a fancied one.
"That's all a long way away and we'll just try and get to Leopardstown at Christmas, that's a massive one for us."

From 3 and 4 - I originally was quite taken by the fact HdB said he was wary of the race... I believe I commented on having reservations about him going for the RSA based on them a good number of pages back HOWEVER, having taken the time to find the full interview, I think the other parts scream that the RSA is in fact the target....

5. Guessing on the make-up of the race, I still think even if Monalee wins over Christmas, he'll still be around 3/1 SP just because of the likely number of runners in the race. I don't see this race cutting up particularly and you can almost guarentee that a Mullins horse will take a chunk out of the market, as well as whatever happens to be the "best of the British".

I just can't fall in love with this horse at the price of 7/1 - I have tried to, and am in no way whatsoever knocking anyone who is on or saying I don't think he can win the race but I am not seeing as much juice in the price... he's the kind of price that I find myself wanting to put in yankee's, rather than relying on/expecting anything from it.

Is anyone heavily invested in a single bet? I am still yet to take a strong opinion in the race, backed a few but all 33/1+ so far apart from Bacardys 12/1 (any race) which is my biggest stake at the moment in the race (unfortunately!) *Oh, and Death Duty ... but not expecting a run

 

[Kevloaf]

Quite impressed with Moulin A Vent after steppin g up in trip... can't see a price, but done Invitation Only no harm CCM?

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Quite impressed with Moulin A Vent after steppin g up in trip... can't see a price, but done Invitation Only no harm CCM?

You beat me to it Kev! Was just about to post the same. Yes pleased with that. Think it was a hot little race IO won.