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Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets

Scooby91 said:
Monalee 80.0 65.0 jlt
will START over 2m4 and go from there, travels really well. Goes on good ground. Personally though he should have gone neptune last year.
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As the Neptune was a truly run race due to the front running tactics of Willoughby Court, Monalee may have been able to be competitive but I'm not so sure it was a better option than the Bert Bartlett. With regards to the JLT, this race could be the hottest of the Novice chases and will contain some horses stepping up from 2 miles. Therefore I'd be against Monalee in the JLT as he'd be stepping back from 3 miles and all his victories have been 2m 6f+.

I do really like him for the RSA though.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
As the Neptune was a truly run race due to the front running tactics of Willoughby Court, Monalee may have been able to be competitive but I'm not so sure it was a better option than the Bert Bartlett. With regards to the JLT, this race could be the hottest of the Novice chases and will contain some horses stepping up from 2 miles. Therefore I'd be against Monalee in the JLT as he'd be stepping back from 3 miles and all his victories have been 2m 6f+.

I do really like him for the RSA though.
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Iv already backed him for the rsa. But I'd much rather get a cover in now at 80.0 especially when I fancy him at the trip, personally think he was out stayed over 3.
I backed death duty at 20s for the rsa then had to go in at 20s again jlt wich cost me value.

That black Hercules diddnt do too badly dropped down in trip from the bartlett,
 
That is a good point on Black Hercules indeed.

At the end of the day you're doing what suits your betting style, so backing lots of horses in every race and the same horse in multiple races obviously works for you.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
That is a good point on Black Hercules indeed.

At the end of the day you're doing what suits your betting style, so backing lots of horses in every race and the same horse in multiple races obviously works for you.
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It's not for every body and I completely understand that, but certainly works for me. It's very rare I will top up on a horse as the price goes down, as I back my judgement and stake accordingly from an early stage.
 
Nothing worse than backing a horse at 50s ie for the supreme then he wins the neptune at single figure price.
If I can cover at close to 3 figures I will do so
 
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Scooby91 said:
Nothing worse than backing a horse at 50s ie for the supreme then he wins the neptune at single figure price.
If I can cover at close to 3 figures I will do so
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I'm with you on that Scooby, rather back my own judgement any day, even if it means profit drops a bit. The worst thing that can happen for me is a horse going on to win a race that you had written down for a different race and to go unbacked in the race it wins, painful times them.
 
You guys have way more cash available to tie up in ante post markets than I do. Although I think Kev out ranks everybody :)
 
JackieMoon33 said:
That is a good point on Black Hercules indeed.

At the end of the day you're doing what suits your betting style, so backing lots of horses in every race and the same horse in multiple races obviously works for you.
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Kilultagh vic another.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Talking of Killultagh Vic, he's priced up for the Foxhunters, though short enough coming back from injury, thoughts?
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I love the horse, a real shame he got injured as I personally thought he was a gold cup horse in waiting.
I couldn't back him for the fox hunters at this stage, if he was 100% going for the race, he retains most of his ability he'd be a huge price at 6s. But they are all huge iffs.
 
Scooby91 said:
I love the horse, a real shame he got injured as I personally thought he was a gold cup horse in waiting.
I couldn't back him for the fox hunters at this stage, if he was 100% going for the race, he retains most of his ability he'd be a huge price at 6s. But they are all huge iffs.
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I'd echo that.... I'd certainly not expect a horse to improve for leaving Willie Mullins. I nearly made a thread on the Foxhunters today with a loose link to the news story about changing the conditiona for the jockeys, so I might do that now.
 
Scooby91 said:
It's not for every body and I completely understand that, but certainly works for me. It's very rare I will top up on a horse as the price goes down, as I back my judgement and stake accordingly from an early stage.
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Can remember 08 had backed Trafford Lad for the Ballymore at 33/1 e/w and for some reason kept backing it till it was 12/1.Got 3rd in the end,was well happy.
 
somer1 said:
Can remember 08 had backed Trafford Lad for the Ballymore at 33/1 e/w and for some reason kept backing it till it was 12/1.Got 3rd in the end,was well happy.
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I understand this, and well done but what I don't get in general is why keep backing down to 12s, why not have a larger bet at 33s.
 
I regularly will back a horse many times at a variety of prices, especially when ante post betting.

If I still think a horse is over priced, I'll back it again.

The year Faugheen won the champion hurdle I'd backed him at 33/1 but was still backing him at Christmas at 4/1 (shameless aftertiming) because I still thought he was overpriced.
 
I think it depends on the type of race as to how much you can heavily invest early on. If it's a Novice that you've never seen jump, there is only so much you can really justify backing at its larger, early price. If the horse then comes out and wins well on their first run, you then have some more substance to go on and can really justify a large bet, even if it's at a subsequently lower price.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
I think it depends on the type of race as to how much you can heavily invest early on. If it's a Novice that you've never seen jump, there is only so much you can really justify backing at its larger, early price. If the horse then comes out and wins well on their first run, you then have some more substance to go on and can really justify a large bet, even if it's at a subsequently lower price.
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I get this, but after it's jumped the last , you can still get the same price as it was before the race. :devilish:
 
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For instance samcro was always going to come out and win his maiden hurdle, especially one of that nature. He was 16s or 14s any race, why now would you back him again at 8s - 6s when hes done nothing more than what he was always going to do. Surely youd have a decent size bet according to your own stake size. Then leave him alone at current odds
 
Scooby91 said:
For instance samcro was always going to come out and win his maiden hurdle, especially one of that nature. He was 16s or 14s any race, why now would you back him again at 8s - 6s when hes done nothing more than what he was always going to do. Surely youd have a decent size bet according to your own stake size. Then leave him alone at current odds
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What if he came out and jumped appallingly or got beaten? Not every superstar bumper horse reaches the top over hurdles.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
What if he came out and jumped appallingly or got beaten? Not every superstar bumper horse reaches the top over hurdles.
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He still might. But not against that opposition. He wasn't going to jump appallingly coming from the pt to pt fields. And having schooling hurdles
 
Scooby91 said:
He still might. But not against that opposition. He wasn't going to jump appallingly coming from the pt to pt fields. And having schooling hurdles
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I need a crystal ball like yours
 
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