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Ryanair Chase 2018

The Beast

The Beast

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Any early thoughts chaps!

UDS breezed home last season , looks like the one to beat this term again. Do like him and very surprised he not been given office at 3M. He wasnt stopping last year so maybe Mullins quest to win Gold CUp might persuade him to try.

My early fancy is imo the most improved horse in training last year FOX NORTON> The presence of Douvan inspired trainer to step him up in trip last season and wow what a transformation.

At a price (may go Queen Mother) Charbel looks a likely improver for step up in trip. Was in process of giving the mighty Altior a workout till falling in Atkle .

If there is such a thing as ante post NAP in September it must be Foxy
 
Fox Norton is being aimed at the Champion Chase unless anything happens to Sizing John according to Joe Tizzard. Obviously Alan Potts makes the decisions and Ryanair isn't high on their agenda so I'd be careful.

I have found it successful to find the gigginstown runner! Despite them not winning it, it's always going to be a shorter price and EoD under-performed. I had been sweet on Disko but think ill need to see a few of their contenders run.

I feel like Mullins will end up with the fav in this ... the fact Vautour ran makes this race incredibly difficult for me to be confident a high profile of won't switch! Imagine having 6s on a nice horse and Douvan or Yorkhill turn up. Bleugh
 
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Douvan! ;)
 
To touch on a couple of peoples points, Beast above and jono in GC thread .... is Djakadam the obvious over-priced horse here?

Un De Sceaux is an obvious fly in the ointment as he is the previous winner, so is an obvious 'first string' for this race but connections don't seem too fussed and a crack at 2m or 3m (CC or GC) might not be out of the equation for UDS? Maybe I am clutching a bit for reasons that UDS wouldn't run, but even if he did..... Djakdam has form figures at 2m3f-2m5f of 11F11 (the F being when close up, 4 out on the JLT). That is pretty impressive when since that first win at the distance, he was stepped up and his form figures read 8122F232342.

I can't really believe that, obviously some of that 3m form is very strong, placing in Gold Cups and so on, but on the bare figures he looks a horse made for the intermediate distance. I have almost convinced myself to have a bet! 10/1 isn't as big as I'd like as Douvan/Yorkhill/UDS might end up as even money shots, BUT... what do you think?
 
I think you make some veey good points Kev. I said a few times prior to this years festival that I believed Djakdam should run in the Ryanair and I had actually forgotten about Djakadam until this thread. I'd completely agree, as you say 10/1 is a tad short but if he turned up he wouldnt be that price
 
How about a Soft ground CC - UDS turns up? Djakadam Ryanair, Douvan GC
 
I think Min will go CC if good to soft The Beast, unless they decide to go back hurdling ha ha
 
Vroum Vroum Mag has this in the bag.:devilish:
 
Kevloaf said:
Vroum Vroum Mag has this in the bag.:devilish:
Click to expand...

I backed her at the start of last season for the Ryanair. It makes sense to me for her to go for this race
 
I worry if Douvan isn't the machine we expect the early part of the season (I would expect him to still beat everything) that they might dodge Altior and go here
 
And listening to Nicholls , his horse to follow this year Pollitilugue (probably spelt wrong)could be either a 2 miler or more likely ryanair type trip. He got big P for potential next to his name for me , not sure what was wrong last year as his form tailored odd somewhat.
Surposedly starting of in the Paddy Power at Cheltenham so not long to wait.
 
Kevloaf said:
You might be right, it probably does but we don't want it to! Having briefly read your Gold Cup post, you want Yorkhill and Douvan in the Gold Cup or in the CC and GC respecively. With the Ryanair, we might end up with a VAUTOUR MOMENT from Douvan...but will anyone care in 20 years? Maybe they will - but in the same sentance they'll say "wish he would have had a go in the Gold Cup". Some horses might be best at that trip, so they can wait 3 weeks and win at Aintree?

I know you fancy Yorkhill for the Gold Cup, but if the Ryanair is worth winning, why not aim Yorkhill (with not 1, but 2 C&D festival wins) at the Ryanair, and go for Gold next season? Are you telling me part of you wouldn't feel disappointed to see Yorkhill win the Ryanair? I think if they came out tomorrow and said Yorkhill was going for the Ryanair, he'd be evens and the absolute NAP of the entire season?.... but we don't want that, do we?!
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Wanted to reply regarding the Ryanair in here so I don't derail the CC thread again!

If either :

A. connections genuinely targeted the race from the outside with Yorkhill (and 'fill ya boots' - he would be NAP of the entire season in that) and reasons behind it - i.e stamina doubts how keen he is, give him another year to hopefully settle better etc etc

B. tried the horse in the major Gold Cup trials and he failed

Then I wouldn't be so upset with him not going for the Gold Cup (my main hope is they at least stay chasing with the horse)
For me the most disappointing aspect regarding Vautour was that he ran such a strong race in the King George where there was rock solid reasons behind why he could improve (left handed vs right handed, how much better he races at Cheltenham) that
he deserved his go at the Gold Cup having only just lost out so narrowly as that was the path it seemed or they had at least suggested all season. The last minute switch when the only reason looked to be Ruby wanting to ride both Vautour and Djakadam in 2 different races. In my 2 scenerios above he didn't fail in one of the trails at all. If that was to repeat itself again with Yorkhill or whoever i'd definitely be disappointed for sure. Like you say Yorkhill has 2 C&D festival wins so there is a logical reason if he were to go here. If connections did come out tomorrow and say we're targeting the Ryanair for the season, would I be disappointed, personally yes but I'd be hard pressed to argue to much.

I'd also agree that no one will care about the Ryanair winner in 20 years time. But at the same time give it 20 years and I think people will still look back on that performance by Vautour in the JLT, regardless of the race or distance - it was just that damn good.

HOWEVER saying all that I am slightly hypocritical. Obviously the main topic of discussion here started and revolved around Douvan and how we feel about him ending up in the Ryanair, which i'd agree (obviously like all) I have no real interest in seeing. And even if connections did what I stated above with Douvan and said look, we want to go Ryanair this year, with a view to going the Gold Cup the year after, we feel it's the natural stepping stone...i'd feel disappointed in this case, not only because the cynic in me would feel like they are avoiding Altior and shuffling their pack to cover all races but also because it generate little excitement. I can't say this with too much confidence as Douvan has never raced over the middle distance but I don't see him being a Vautour and producing his best display over it.

So all in all...give the Ryanair some slack guys it's not all bad....but in regards to Douvan and this year, yes it's rubbish and I don't want to see it :highly_amused::devilish:
 
I have considered your points... but you are wrong :devilish::highly_amused:

Douvan/Yorkhill shouldn't have the option to not race in one of the Championship races at Cheltenham. They should HAVE to take on the superstars. Otherwise we are just potentially watching uncompetitive racing.

They should make it a grade 2 again, as that way it'd be a huge insult if they'd won a Grade 2 with these 'superstars'. I mean, it is called the RYANAIR - money is the reason this race was introduced and there is no need for it at the festival. We do not need to know in March, who the best 2m5f horse is do we?

I appreciate it is a specialist distance, but wouldn't it add to the season if a CC winner and a GC winner met down the line, at Aintree or Punchestown.... added in to the mix the "middle distance specialists" ....
 
Kevloaf said:
I have considered your points... but you are wrong :devilish::highly_amused:

Douvan/Yorkhill shouldn't have the option to not race in one of the Championship races at Cheltenham. They should HAVE to take on the superstars. Otherwise we are just potentially watching uncompetitive racing.

They should make it a grade 2 again, as that way it'd be a huge insult if they'd won a Grade 2 with these 'superstars'. I mean, it is called the RYANAIR - money is the reason this race was introduced and there is no need for it at the festival. We do not need to know in March, who the best 2m5f horse is do we?

I appreciate it is a specialist distance, but wouldn't it add to the season if a CC winner and a GC winner met down the line, at Aintree or Punchestown.... added in to the mix the "middle distance specialists" ....
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What rattled your cage Kev. :triumphant:

100% agree btw :encouragement:
 
Kevloaf said:
I have considered your points... but you are wrong :devilish::highly_amused:

Douvan/Yorkhill shouldn't have the option to not race in one of the Championship races at Cheltenham. They should HAVE to take on the superstars. Otherwise we are just potentially watching uncompetitive racing.

They should make it a grade 2 again, as that way it'd be a huge insult if they'd won a Grade 2 with these 'superstars'. I mean, it is called the RYANAIR - money is the reason this race was introduced and there is no need for it at the festival. We do not need to know in March, who the best 2m5f horse is do we?

I appreciate it is a specialist distance, but wouldn't it add to the season if a CC winner and a GC winner met down the line, at Aintree or Punchestown.... added in to the mix the "middle distance specialists" ....
Click to expand...

:highly_amused:

I agree the race should be a grade 2, definitely. I'd also agree on face value the best horses should run in the championship races. I'm not a Ryanair 'fanboy' by any means I just don't quite get the hate that seems to be attached to it. If they were to get rid of the middle distance chase races I'd have no issue but at the same time I wouldn't say there's "no need for it" at the festival.

I'm sure it's very much part of me getting into racing when this was already in place though, i'm not used to any different. I'm dead against a 5 day festival (even though it WILL happen) and I know a 2m4 hurdle race will come into play at some point. I have no need for that race so that being the case, I shouldn't want the JLT and Ryanair either.

I still think a large part of this revolves around Mullins as take out his few superstars that have or could run in the race this year and I don't see many examples and less of an issue. Even if they did get rid of this race i' m sure he'd somehow find a way to split his best horses up!!

A question though - Just to flip this around slightly. Right now it looks like the JLT could be a stronger race than the Arkle come March, I think everyone can agree this far out? You've mentioned elsewhere you think the Arkle could be there for the taking for Finian's Oscar and you could see him diverting to that. Plenty of If's and Buts but what would you prefer:

Finains Oscar vs Willoughby Court vs Yanworth in a competitive JLT
OR
Finains Oscar goes for the Arkle where he could bolt up evens / odds on.

Would you be going; Good he should run in the Arkle, it's the more prestigious race, the best horses should run at 2 miles or 3 miles...
OR
Would you be disappointing he has gone for the easier option and not taken on the others in the JLT??
 
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As a punter I'd love them to take the option I had bet on them in, but if I was the owner I'm afraid I'd be aiming it at the race I felt gave me the best chance of having a Cheltenham Festival winner, if that's the easier route then so be it.

It's tough on punters sometimes, but we don't pay the bills for these animals, you don't get race horse owners telling us what to do with our money, so why would they listen to us in telling them what race they should be targeting.

It's probably highly unlikely, but IF owners/horses were forced to take on the better races for 'competitive' racing, then they are well within their rights to pull all their horses from the festival/race entirely, this is the extreme, but wouldn't be beyond happening, and if that person happened to be a RR or a JP then suddenly you would have a well below par festival, that would be, on the whole, uncompetitive.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
What rattled your cage Kev. :triumphant:

100% agree btw :encouragement:
Click to expand...

Felt like putting jono in his place :highly_amused: :highly_amused:

jono said:
:highly_amused:

A question though - Just to flip this around slightly. Right now it looks like the JLT could be a stronger race than the Arkle come March, I think everyone can agree this far out? You've mentioned elsewhere you think the Arkle could be there for the taking for Finian's Oscar and you could see him diverting to that. Plenty of If's and Buts but what would you prefer:

Finains Oscar vs Willoughby Court vs Yanworth in a competitive JLT
OR
Finains Oscar goes for the Arkle where he could bolt up evens / odds on.

Would you be going; Good he should run in the Arkle, it's the more prestigious race, the best horses should run at 2 miles or 3 miles...
OR
Would you be disappointing he has gone for the easier option and not taken on the others in the JLT??
Click to expand...

I don't think the JLT/Ryanair comparison is quite the same as having the extra, middle, distance for the novices gives them options as they are still learning/growing(in some cases) BUT I'd prefer the competitive race yes... however, I would want the 3rd option, no JLT, and then the Arkle AND RSA are fantastic?

ComplyOrDie said:
As a punter I'd love them to take the option I had bet on them in, but if I was the owner I'm afraid I'd be aiming it at the race I felt gave me the best chance of having a Cheltenham Festival winner, if that's the easier route then so be it.

It's tough on punters sometimes, but we don't pay the bills for these animals, you don't get race horse owners telling us what to do with our money, so why would they listen to us in telling them what race they should be targeting.

It's probably highly unlikely, but IF owners/horses were forced to take on the better races for 'competitive' racing, then they are well within their rights to pull all their horses from the festival/race entirely, this is the extreme, but wouldn't be beyond happening, and if that person happened to be a RR or a JP then suddenly you would have a well below par festival, that would be, on the whole, uncompetitive.
Click to expand...

I don't think I am telling the owners what to do though? As I said before - if they told me who was being AIMED at the Ryanair, then I'll try and profit from it, if I would have KNOWN Vautour was going for the Ryanair, I would have had him in every single multiple, as I would knowing Yorkhill or Douvan we're going this year. If the Ryanair didn't excist Vatour would have been in the Gold Cup, and that would have been more enjoyable.... how much money I make, only ADDS to the festival for me, I would want to watch the championship races whether I had bet in them or not?

I don't blame the owners for wanting a winner...but there has to be a point which is too far. A greys only race? What if Dessie's owners had that option and wanted the "festival winner"... Obviously I am being a little facetious but everyone can surely agree at some point there are too many races.

Like jono, I have only ever watched the festival in its current 4 day format, so I think thats brilliant, but I have to factor in recency bias. I am sure people with more experience would argue the 3 day festival was better, or before the JLT was introduced and so on...

I have a question.... I read Tizzard is undecided on where Cue Card will go... Gold Cup or Ryanair... if he won the Ryanair, how would people feel? I think it'd be great for the race and a popular win, but it'll be an example that the Ryanair isn't as good a race, and shouldn't be a group 1 alongside the Gold Cup?
 
I don't disagree with you entirely Kev, but I think Vautour runs in the Ryanair that year whether it be a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race, I wish he hadn't as I was fully invested for the Gold Cup in him, but that's another story haha!

I think Cue Card has to go to the race he has the best chance in and do agree that the Ryanair probably shouldn't be a Grade 1, but don't think it would put any trainer or owner off tbh!

They'll run them in the races they want regardless of our thoughts too.

We would all like to know what races they are going to actually run in, but unfortunately that is the risk of ante post betting, but they can't have 1 month declarations to please punters as there are many variables that could mean the fields are depleted entirely.

Just wondering, how many horses with known targets were re-routed this year? I know many pulled out through injury, but that is something that can't be helped.
 
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