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Supreme Novices 2018

jono

jono

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With only 235 days to go until the Supreme kicks off another Cheltenham Festival today seems like a good day to start this post :) From a betting point of view i'm not sure any years renewal can be as bad as last years (I'd also say the quality of last years race is also lacking and I can't see too many coming out of the race and making a major mark going forward) But onwards and upwards for this year. :triumphant:

Fayonagh heads the betting at 14/1 and looks a worthy fav. Although Elliott is one of the better trainers for indicating targets, I think they'll be a lot of uncertainty where she lines up this year so she doesn't make too much appeal right now.

Debuchet is next up in the betting at 16/1 - the horse she beat in the Champion Bumper. He followed up that second with an easy win in April but it's the horse who beat Debuchet on debut that is of interest and at bigger odds - Red Jack at 25/1

The following has come out of Red Jack's debut win:

2nd - Debuchet
29/01 - Won by 6.5L
15/03 - 2nd in Champion Bumper
06/04 - Won by 5L

3rd - Le Richebourg
29/01 - 2nd (beaten by Debuchet)
14/05 - Won by 12L
20/07 - Won by 6.5L

Red Jack was then bought by JP and followed up at Fairyhouse. At a glance the winning distance was small but he had plenty in hand. Lesley Dawn, back in 7th that day then followed up to win by 16L's in May.

Here's what Meade had to say about the horse in February this year:

JP bought him after he won at Naas. He won very well and the form held up well when the second won well the other day at Leopardstown. We fancied him so well that we thought he’d win but when I got to Naas, everyone else seemed to fancy theirs as well.

He is just a very good horse, he’ll go for the Goffs Bumper at Fairyhouse and, depending on how that goes, he could end up going for the Champion Bumper at Punchestown.

He was bought last June and everything just came very easy to him from the word go. I remember I told Johnny Moore not to let him come off the bridle on his final piece of work before he ran at Naas.

He ended up coming up the outside the rest of the horses that day and I said to him after the work, that he wasn’t to come off the bridle. Johnny said back to me that he didn’t and that I could go anywhere that I liked with him!
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I know some people see Meade's horses as a negative for the festival but over the last couple of years he's had a decent record of his main hopes hitting the frame:

2017 -
Disko - 3rd -JLT - 4/1
Road to Respect - 1st - Plate -16/1

2016 -
Measureofmydreams - 3rd - NHC - 10/1
Road to Riches - 3rd - Ryanair - 7/1

2015 -
Road to Riches - 3rd - Gold Cup - 8/1
Wounded Warrior - 3rd - RSA - 12/1

Any early thoughts on the race or Red Jack? (or if he's more likely to go up in trip?
 
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You make a good case Jono. I remember watching Red Jack's debut and he beat some well touted horses quite easily - which is probably why JP got the wallet out.

He's of interest to me and, like you, I see him as a supreme novice horse.
 
I wonder if we'll see some performances from Red Jack that are not peak with a view to peaking at Cheltenham? Would certainly fit a Meade steroetype and to some extent JP too? All with a view to his price getting a bit bigger?

I wonder is sky will do the same NRNB offer as early this year... I really shouldn't be playing in the race this far out...

Just to add, 3rd - Le Richebourg won today beating Timi Roli for Willie. That horse hasn't won very often but isn't a bad beast?
 
I dont intend to get too involved in the supreme a/post , until later in the year. , but i have had a small each way single on Samcro
at 20-1 with p.power , I like the sound of Red Jack though jono.
 
Another win by Le Richebourg in the opener at Galway this evening. Not the strongest of races but the front 2 pulled well clear of the rest.

I wonder if we'll see some performances from Red Jack that are not peak with a view to peaking at Cheltenham? Would certainly fit a Meade steroetype and to some extent JP too? All with a view to his price getting a bit bigger?
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Not unlike a JP horse for sure but i can't say I can recall either connections doing this to one of their better prospects i.e in the graded races? (you assume the horse will be aimed towards either the Supreme or Neptune). If he was to disappoint early on and head towards a handicap that would be a different matter...
 
Yeah, another boost to the bumper form. Who is best price on Red Jack for any race?
 
14's with William Hill.
8/1 SkyBet

PaddyPower have the market but not Red Jack. I'd be surprised if anywhere offers bigger than 14/1 though?

Am I right FM in thinking you are keen to back most of these novices (Red Jack, Samcro) in any race?
New strategy I.e a preference overall or just for these specific horses?
 
I'm going to split my stake between a specific race (e.g. Supreme) and the any race market with most of my bets on novices.

It's something I've started to do more of in recent years having been stung with late switches in the past.
 
Walked into Hills yesterday to try and get the 14/1 on Red Jack for any race. They said it was only an online offer. Did anyone manage to get on this bet in the shops?
 
Anyone know what horses willie mullins has planned for this race?
 
I'm guessing, but Annamix had been introduced in to the market, still down as French trainer but mum guess is I'm late to the party and Mullins/Ricci have a new one?
 
Kevloaf said:
I'm guessing, but Annamix had been introduced in to the market, still down as French trainer but mum guess is I'm late to the party and Mullins/Ricci have a new one?
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Mullins/Ricci. Been in the Mullins yard for a year, bought out of the same yard as Vautour. Cut to 14s by PP a while back.
 
I am hoping Pym proves to be a useful hurdler and may end up in the supreme.
 
Vanilla said:
I am hoping Pym proves to be a useful hurdler and may end up in the supreme.
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I really like Pym albeit we only have the 1 run to go by so far (3rd and 7th have won since). I was at Nicky Henderson's open day in March last year and this horse was given as an exciting prospect for the upcoming season. Punchestown was a potential target but they decided to run him at Ayr, presumably as another small boost to help shore up the trainers title. That Ayr bumper has been targeted by Henderson before though with some very nice types - Sprinter Sacre, William Henry and River Maguire. A small snippet after his run at Ayr:

PYM was also very impressive, as I hoped he would be, in the Bumper and he is a very exciting novice Hurdler for next season.
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After that run I had earmarked the Neptune as the most likely race for him, he looked better as the race went on and started pulling well clear at the end.

Jeremiah McGrath who rode the horse that day is in Paul Ferguson's Jumpers to Follow and says this about him:

Very green on debut...he got the job done but he was very green despite looking visually impressive. They went a right gallop and came back to him:things worked out nicely for us. He could have another run in a bumper and I wouldn't be surprised if he did,
as he is a big baby, so he might have another run before going hurdling, just to teach him a bit more. He is a gorgeous looking horse,
another Stowaway with a nice pedigree.
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Which could suggest it was more a case of him taking his time to come into the race and learning as the race went on but to me on that run alone he strikes me as a Neptune type. I asked most of the big firms to add him to the Neptune market but only SkyBet got back with 20/1 quotes. I'm hoping others will introduce him at 25's though which is when i'll have a bet on him.

After winning the Supreme with Altior maybe the owner might like to follow the same path though? He's quoted at 25's for that. Can also be backed at 14/1 To Win Any Race
 
I spoke to Minty (David Minton) at the start of August who buys most of Nickys horses and said "did you buy that bumper horse that looked so good at the end of the season” and he said “oh yes she’s a wonderful mare” - I was talking about Pym and so was really interested to see which mare he was talking about, he was talking about Melangerie who was well beaten first two runs but then (according to the RP) had a wind op and won her next two, he really couldn’t hide his excitement for her, so one to watch out for. When i asked him about Pym he was also very complementary and he said they couldn’t believe how much pace he showed at Ayr, on breeding he should really be a Neptune horse but Nicky felt with the pace he showed at Ayr the Supreme wouldn’t be out of the equation, if he proved to be good enough. So target wise id be careful, sounds like it could go either way yet.
 
Good info billy.
 
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