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Novice Chasers 2027

Faugheen_Machine said:
I'd disagree on it being irrelevant. He showed he can jump a fence quickly and efficiently. We know he has the residual class given he's rated 156 over hurdles so he needed to show that he's suited to fences, which he did.

Cheltenham is the next race on the agenda, where he should face some decent opposition.
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I know the 3rd horse was probably just running for experience but she was beaten by fully a fence getting weight and this is a Mare that easily put away this season's Mares Novice Hurdle White Noise on her last run.

It felt very relevant to me😂
 
Kautostar said:
Couple of poor runs in graded races then a nice mark for the jack Richard’s and…….boom
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Dan said he'll try and keep the two of them apart (same owners) over the course of the season so it'll be interesting how they are placed. He did mention Henry VIII for Sinnatra yesterday so perhaps Kabral will go to Kempton. Sounds like ground will dictate a fair bit though with Sinnatra more at home on softer conditions. He looks the more likely of the two that could go out in trip as well IMO.
 
Lobos said:
Dan said he'll try and keep the two of them apart (same owners) over the course of the season so it'll be interesting how they are placed. He did mention Henry VIII for Sinnatra yesterday so perhaps Kabral will go to Kempton. Sounds like ground will dictate a fair bit though with Sinnatra more at home on softer conditions. He looks the more likely of the two that could go out in trip as well IMO.
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here's the post race interview

https://twitter.com/x/status/2110719836863037772

seems to confirm arkle is target for kabral assuming ground not bottomless
 
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I remember (along with a few others on here) having the same thoughts about Third Time Lucki and getting my fingers burnt so keeping my feet firmly on the ground this time.
 
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Faugheen_Machine said:
All roads lead to the Arkle according to Dan. Cheltenham November meeting, followed by Sandown or Kempton - and that might be it until the Arkle.

I was very impressed. Had already backed him at early prices in the summer but topped up at 7/1.
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Same as you Faugheen , backed early in the summer .. 👍. Risky , but always nice when the Trainer name checks the race you've backed the horse for .
Can leave K.d.M now and get a couple of the others in the book .
Sober Glory and O.p.s.i think for me.
 
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It was very impressive. What i was saying about stats is that they won't tell you that he trotted home the last furlong and could have won by 40 lengths if he wanted to. The only danger for me is that it was October 15th and hopefully Dan won't over race him like he did with L'eau Du Sud but i think we are dealing with a completely different animal here. As a book builder, he is the type of 'maybe' that needed to be in but after seeing his opening salvo i would have been sick if he wasn't. All the novices have to start in these types of races and not all of them can cope (Salvator Mundi at 1/7 off the top of my head) and that was the perfect introduction. Sauntering home whilst destroying the opposition in the process. His ceiling is high.

There is still potential massive value in the race. Anzadam at 40/1 could be transformed for the switch to fences like Kitzbuhel was and millions of Mullins horses before him. Leader D'Allier is bred for it and can be nabbed at 100/1. He needs to run in a tongue tie and i think they know that now and his season derailed after being found lame at Cheltenham so plenty to prove in that sense (if they both go chasing) but has a full season at Willies now and as i mentioned in the Champion Hurdle thread, that's why i have an interest in Macho Man (50/1) for that. The form of his races is excellent and he only arrived in Ireland last October. Lots more to come from the likes of him and many other forgotten horses. It's phase 2 of my book building - looking for reasons that big priced horses could be over priced, can i make a case for them. I have taken chances on all 3. He who dares, wins, He who hesitates............:D
 
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Without getting carried away , and looking beyond the obvious..
Work ahead- h.d.bromhead available at huge prices , .
I backed Workahead last season for the arkle , but he stayed over hurdles due to an injury I believe .
I've taken a chance again , with a free bet ,
Just because of the trainer . , same with Leader d'allier , didn't know about that injury
Just remember him being withdrawn on or just before race day.👍.
 
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The Arkle looks a horrible market right now, as someone said the other day if Old Park Star comes out and does what Kabral did he goes 7/4 and the front three take 64% of the market.
In October.
Did anything come from Bambino Fever's mares nov hurdle run ? Was too bad to be true and not been seen since.
Haven't seen/heard any updates but if she is fit and well, and chasing is the plan, then 50/1 might look attractive for a bloke who has farmed the race in recent years
 
Eggs said:
…..Sinnatara is 25-1 Arkle in their ‘Road to Cheltenham’ specials.
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He's out nice and early so plenty of time to get enough runs in for the Grand Annual. It wouldn't be the biggest shock given how Dan can campaign them.
 
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Faugheen_Machine said:
He's out nice and early so plenty of time to get enough runs in for the Grand Annual. It wouldn't be the biggest shock given how Dan can campaign them.
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The cynic in me is telling me theres a hole in Kabral

The way Dan has talked about keeping away from bad ground yet they pulled him from Sandown end of last season for unsuitable ground yet it was good. The horse won his debut on heavy in France. He's already talking about picking his options then giving him a good break from december until the Spring.

That stayers hurdle run to me was not a case of just not staying the trip. The horse went from travelling very well to quite literally falling in a hole and barely getting over the line, that was more than not just staying. This ain't pocket talk either as he is covered from when Dan first said he'd be chasing as was an obvious one to shorten being in UK, but his debut was good yesterday, jumped nicely, travelled well and looks a natural chaser etc. but lets be real, not one of the others wanted to be anyway close to him and it was nothing more than simply a school around a track.

I can see a case of Sinnatra continuing to impress Dan and wouldn't surprise me if he ends up in an Arkle with or without Kabral.
 
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darlojim said:
The cynic in me is telling me theres a hole in Kabral

The way Dan has talked about keeping away from bad ground yet they pulled him from Sandown end of last season for unsuitable ground yet it was good. The horse won his debut on heavy in France. He's already talking about picking his options then giving him a good break from december until the Spring.

That stayers hurdle run to me was not a case of just not staying the trip. The horse went from travelling very well to quite literally falling in a hole and barely getting over the line, that was more than not just staying. This ain't pocket talk either as he is covered from when Dan first said he'd be chasing as was an obvious one to shorten being in UK, but his debut was good yesterday, jumped nicely, travelled well and looks a natural chaser etc. but lets be real, not one of the others wanted to be anyway close to him and it was nothing more than simply a school around a track.

I can see a case of Sinnatra continuing to impress Dan and wouldn't surprise me if he ends up in an Arkle with or without Kabral.
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Kabral was like watching One Man empty out up the hill.

..... what happened with One Man 😁
 
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darlojim said:
The cynic in me is telling me theres a hole in Kabral

The way Dan has talked about keeping away from bad ground yet they pulled him from Sandown end of last season for unsuitable ground yet it was good. The horse won his debut on heavy in France. He's already talking about picking his options then giving him a good break from december until the Spring.

That stayers hurdle run to me was not a case of just not staying the trip. The horse went from travelling very well to quite literally falling in a hole and barely getting over the line, that was more than not just staying. This ain't pocket talk either as he is covered from when Dan first said he'd be chasing as was an obvious one to shorten being in UK, but his debut was good yesterday, jumped nicely, travelled well and looks a natural chaser etc. but lets be real, not one of the others wanted to be anyway close to him and it was nothing more than simply a school around a track.

I can see a case of Sinnatra continuing to impress Dan and wouldn't surprise me if he ends up in an Arkle with or without Kabral.
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Dan has talked out of his arse about this horse ever since he's had him.
When he's adrenalised he is prone to spout shite, and he also spouts shite to cover his mistakes and poor decisions.

(Don't get me wrong, I'm not down on Skelton as I think he's a fantastic trainer and likely to get as close to Mullins as anyone has in the last decade or so. But that doesn't mean he has no faults, or doesn't make mistakes, same goes with Willie also).

I don't think that any of this has anything to do with the horse's ability though.

Although, I agree that the horse may have a weakness in him.
But IMO the hole you mention is more than likely to do with gears.

Like Harchibald, he may be another extreme example of a horse that does so much on the bridle, when he really needs another gear against the type of horse that is willing to burst it's heart to please the jockey, it isn't there, because his cruising gear is so good anyway. He's basically giving you all he's got on the bridle.

He's still a real contender in grade 1's IMO but probably vulnerable to something that can live with him to a point and then outstay him in the finish.
 
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