Gold Cup 2027

[Eggs]

Current betting;

Gaelic Warrior 9/4
Jango 12-1
Final Demand 18-1
F2F 20-1
Lulamba 25-1
Kitzbuhel 25-1
Inothewayurthinkin 33-1
Soldier in Milan 33-1
Kaid 33-1

40-1 bar.

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

I'll kick this off. If we paint a scenario that winning back to back Gold Cups is a step too far for most horses plus the fact Jango is currently injured and definitely won't run before Christmas then this Gold Cup suddenly becomes a very open race. In this scenario I think both KItzbuhel @ 25/1 and Soldier In Milan @ 33/1 each become very good bets.

PS. I still think Gaelic Warrior remains the most likely winner..........

 

[Benjy23]

Kaid Dauthie the interesting one of last year's novices for me. For all his Cheltenham record of pulled up and fell doesn't scream Gold Cup winner. Too far out to really know how he'd have got on in the BANC but he was still in contention, and had some smart form before that. Shapes more like a Gold Cup type as well. Kitzbuhel more a King George / Ryanair type imo.

Chance they mess around with Kaid and try to make him a National horse though.

But yea, all Gaelic Warrior really aren't we.

 

[Runragged]

Can't help but look at those and think Fact To File is a great price. How is he a bigger than Final Demand? Only GW has a higher RPR at 3 miles and as a 10yo next year it will probably be last chance if they want to roll the dice. May be a case of they won't run in it if GW is there but equally, his beating of GW at the DRF seems easily forgotten. Punchestown clearly wasn't his showing and can be forgiven that. Another of those Champion Hurdle situations with Lossiemouth, but if GW was ruled out then as said, the division looks weak on proven form and F2F would take high standing.

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

I hear ya and I love Fact To File as a race horse but I just can't get past the 10 year old stat.

 

[Runragged]

I hear ya and I love Fact To File as a race horse but I just can't get past the 10 year old stat.

I get that. However, he is a unique profile and rare for a horse with his ratings to be having his first GC start as a 10yo. He's not been over-raced and would be more comfortable getting him onside at 20/1 than I would at much shorter assuming he puts in a performance at some stage this season.

 

[Runragged]

Loading…

www.attheraces.com

Handbrake coming off Iroko this season. Not even in the Gold Cup betting according to Oddschecker despite being rated 160.

 

[Quevega]

I wouldn't be put off by either Iroko or Fact to File myself, although only backed Kaid D'authie so far for this race.
Fact to Files Irish Gold Cup win worked out very well.
And we know that Iroko has not really ran on merits every race he ran in.

Just risky as they are all JP's, and he tends to split them most years.

 

[Wayward Lad]

I wouldn't be put off by either Iroko or Fact to File myself, although only backed Kaid D'authie so far for this race.
Fact to Files Irish Gold Cup win worked out very well.
And we know that Iroko has not really ran on merits every race he ran in.

Just risky as they are all JP's, and he tends to split them most years.

Maybe Majboroughs seasonal campaign could be the determining factor of FTF’s ultimate festival target?

 

[Lobos]

For me FTF is Gaelics biggest threat to winning back to back GC's but I doubt he goes that way. 20/1 is worth the risk though small stakes.

 

[Istabraq]

For me FTF is Gaelics biggest threat to winning back to back GC's but I doubt he goes that way. 20/1 is worth the risk though small stakes.

Might be worth holding off until New Year, a few in the high st go NRNB on champs races early (New Years Day from memory for one or two), there's unlikely to be any secrets in his schedule and every chance he'll still be a double figure price even with the NRNB...

 

[archie]

As someone who doesn't make his own book, I think that the key error made by those who do is that they feel compelled to make a book on every race. Sometimes it's simply not worth it. If he stays sound, Gaelic Warrior wins, simple as that.

 

[Quevega]

As someone who doesn't make his own book, I think that the key error made by those who do is that they feel compelled to make a book on every race. Sometimes it's simply not worth it. If he stays sound, Gaelic Warrior wins, simple as that.

I agree that it's an error to ever feel compelled and it's advisable to choose when and where wisely.

I rarely make a full book and rarely back something I think has no chance at all (like Golden Ace )

But funnily enough, I often make partial books on the championship races, especially when there is a strong FAV.
I generally build a team of likely contenders and leave the FAV alone for as long as I can, at least until NRNB.
I'm not one for loading up on the one horse like you're minded to do every now and then.

It's rare that my method does not work out, as it's very hard for horses to go back to back. Or for heavy favourites at the start of the season to end up as winners on the big day. Enough stuff happens prior to the meeting and on the day itself for this method to pay off.

But I also understand that loading up on a couple of horses each year can also pay off in the long term. It's Probably just too painful a thought for me to bear in those blank years when they don't come up. But not as exciting when one/or two do I suppose.

I reckon that's why a lot of book builders get bored in the end, especially if you can't get enough on to make a healthy profit.
I've made at least 100% profit for several years now (except for one or two years around 70%ish mark) and never had a losing festival when playing antepost.
But I'm also certain that the limitations mean I don't make enough money for the time I spend on it.
But I still enjoy the work.

Building a book or partial book on some or all of these races will more than likely pay off as some FAV's will win but plenty will not.

If my outlay has been proportionate (small stakes at longer odds) I'll always cover the FAV nearer the day or during the season if they have a setback/defeat and the odds look value, or wait till NRNB like mentioned above.

I suppose the only risk is that one year when all/most of the big guns turn up and win.
It's not really happened as yet although 2021 or 22 was a good year for long term fancies. Although I did well enough that year, most of my success was on the handicaps, but a lot of punters on here had a bumper year.

My method and how much I focus on it just takes too much of my time so I keep trying every year to thin it out a bit.
Had 22 bets this year already though, so I don't think It's working. But can't be arsed to look back on previous years to check.

I have though been successful this year in not/rarely having bets on certain races.
Triumph
Stayers
Turners
Bartlett
Mares chase
Mares Novice

I've highlighted all in red on my piece of A4, and will do my best to hold off where I can, unless an obvious bit of value appears.
I've only broke once and that was before I introduced my rule, (Le Frimeur) so that don't count.

 

[Lobos]

Might be worth holding off until New Year, a few in the high st go NRNB on champs races early (New Years Day from memory for one or two), there's unlikely to be any secrets in his schedule and every chance he'll still be a double figure price even with the NRNB...

Too late. Already backed him at small stakes. The way he demolished Gaelic in Irish Gold Cup over 3m in deep ground last season will stick long in the memory. He's super classy on his day and is still pretty lightly raced for a 9yo. Agree that this will be his last chance to be competitive in a Cheltenham Gold Cup if they let him take his chance. As others say, it'll depend on what JP has and where he wants to place them but if he gets a Gold Cup entry this time around then that'll be a big pointer.

 

[Yosser]

I see it, if all going where they could from a JP perspective :-

Ryanair, Fact To File - Meetmebythesea, Majborough

Gold Cup - Kaid D'authie, Inothewayyurthinkin, And todays news - Iroko

I do think 3 horses could switch as the season progresses though and Fact To File is one of them. The other two are Kitzbuhel and Final Demand. I think the latter 2 will be aimed at the Gold Cup to begin the season though, regardless of what Wllie says on his stable tours but they would have to get beaten first so i won't back them for the Ryanair until they do.

 

[Lobos]

Another way to look at it Yosser.....
If those 8 ran in a staying chase against each other off level weights on Soft ground I reckon FTF would go off the clear favourite and win comfortably. IMO of course.

 

[Wayward Lad]

Danny Mullins on a recent Tote sponsored podcast said that he thinks FTF had excuses for his King George run, should have been suited by the track and maybe has unfinished business there

25/1 and Cobden likely to be onboard if he goes there, so another for me to get in the book alongside Romeo and Heart Wood

 

[Wayward Lad]

I agree that it's an error to ever feel compelled and it's advisable to choose when and where wisely.

I rarely make a full book and rarely back something I think has no chance at all (like Golden Ace )

But funnily enough, I often make partial books on the championship races, especially when there is a strong FAV.
I generally build a team of likely contenders and leave the FAV alone for as long as I can, at least until NRNB.
I'm not one for loading up on the one horse like you're minded to do every now and then.

It's rare that my method does not work out, as it's very hard for horses to go back to back. Or for heavy favourites at the start of the season to end up as winners on the big day. Enough stuff happens prior to the meeting and on the day itself for this method to pay off.

But I also understand that loading up on a couple of horses each year can also pay off in the long term. It's Probably just too painful a thought for me to bear in those blank years when they don't come up. But not as exciting when one/or two do I suppose.

I reckon that's why a lot of book builders get bored in the end, especially if you can't get enough on to make a healthy profit.
I've made at least 100% profit for several years now (except for one or two years around 70%ish mark) and never had a losing festival when playing antepost.
But I'm also certain that the limitations mean I don't make enough money for the time I spend on it.
But I still enjoy the work.

Building a book or partial book on some or all of these races will more than likely pay off as some FAV's will win but plenty will not.

If my outlay has been proportionate (small stakes at longer odds) I'll always cover the FAV nearer the day or during the season if they have a setback/defeat and the odds look value, or wait till NRNB like mentioned above.

I suppose the only risk is that one year when all/most of the big guns turn up and win.
It's not really happened as yet although 2021 or 22 was a good year for long term fancies. Although I did well enough that year, most of my success was on the handicaps, but a lot of punters on here had a bumper year.

My method and how much I focus on it just takes too much of my time so I keep trying every year to thin it out a bit.
Had 22 bets this year already though, so I don't think It's working. But can't be arsed to look back on previous years to check.

I have though been successful this year in not/rarely having bets on certain races.
Triumph
Stayers
Turners
Bartlett
Mares chase
Mares Novice

I've highlighted all in red on my piece of A4, and will do my best to hold off where I can, unless an obvious bit of value appears.
I've only broke once and that was before I introduced my rule, (Le Frimeur) so that don't count.

Exactly the position and approach I have taken on the Arkle this season

My first try at a book approach to a race at the festival

The position I have taken is that OPS has pretty strong claims, but maybe the market is maybe to much favoured towards last years Supreme podium

I have backed a number at big prices early doors inc Anzadam @66/1, Tutti Q @66/1,Talk the Talk @50/1 and Mighty Park@33/1…also for slightly less returns Kabral @ 12/1, KIng Rasko @ 25/1and AOI @ 25/1

Once stable tour info comes out then some prices will crash and some bets could be trash (ie other race targets), so the plan will be to be ready to back OPS at some point with a large enough stake to cover at least the whole book investment

That’s the plan anyway…..I’ll let you know how it goes

 

[YoungHustler]

If he stays sound, Gaelic Warrior wins, simple as that.

I thought exactly the same about Inothewayurthinkin this time last year. Hope the wheels don't fall off Gaelic as i'm already on him!

 

[YoungHustler]

I agree that it's an error to ever feel compelled and it's advisable to choose when and where wisely.

I rarely make a full book and rarely back something I think has no chance at all (like Golden Ace )

But funnily enough, I often make partial books on the championship races, especially when there is a strong FAV.
I generally build a team of likely contenders and leave the FAV alone for as long as I can, at least until NRNB.
I'm not one for loading up on the one horse like you're minded to do every now and then.

It's rare that my method does not work out, as it's very hard for horses to go back to back. Or for heavy favourites at the start of the season to end up as winners on the big day. Enough stuff happens prior to the meeting and on the day itself for this method to pay off.

But I also understand that loading up on a couple of horses each year can also pay off in the long term. It's Probably just too painful a thought for me to bear in those blank years when they don't come up. But not as exciting when one/or two do I suppose.

I reckon that's why a lot of book builders get bored in the end, especially if you can't get enough on to make a healthy profit.
I've made at least 100% profit for several years now (except for one or two years around 70%ish mark) and never had a losing festival when playing antepost.
But I'm also certain that the limitations mean I don't make enough money for the time I spend on it.
But I still enjoy the work.

Building a book or partial book on some or all of these races will more than likely pay off as some FAV's will win but plenty will not.

If my outlay has been proportionate (small stakes at longer odds) I'll always cover the FAV nearer the day or during the season if they have a setback/defeat and the odds look value, or wait till NRNB like mentioned above.

I suppose the only risk is that one year when all/most of the big guns turn up and win.
It's not really happened as yet although 2021 or 22 was a good year for long term fancies. Although I did well enough that year, most of my success was on the handicaps, but a lot of punters on here had a bumper year.

My method and how much I focus on it just takes too much of my time so I keep trying every year to thin it out a bit.
Had 22 bets this year already though, so I don't think It's working. But can't be arsed to look back on previous years to check.

I have though been successful this year in not/rarely having bets on certain races.
Triumph
Stayers
Turners
Bartlett
Mares chase
Mares Novice

I've highlighted all in red on my piece of A4, and will do my best to hold off where I can, unless an obvious bit of value appears.
I've only broke once and that was before I introduced my rule, (Le Frimeur) so that don't count.

I've never made a full book but like you, I do partial books on certain races but also try to maximise profit on those races only rather than dabble in other races. For example, my main race this year will be the Champion Chase and I've been chipping away at IET, KDB and Kargese since this years festival finished. I'm not interested in anything else and looking for a 40pt profit(with target for whole festival being 100pts).
Funnily enough, the only times I've ever had a full book is in the Arc! Was chipping away at Daryz after last year's Arc so found myself in a very decent position on him so decided to cover a few dangers and then just ended up covering everything else on the day.