I'm back eggs
Just woke up off my best nights sleep in weeks.
Enjoyed Benidorm and would recommend it for anyone with stamina.
Unfortunately I was tailed off after halfway.
Got the usual aeroplane virus now so will be going to my mothers later to give it to her.
Usual festival for me, in fact so similar it's getting boring. Way in front after three days and sitting on plenty of really good positions on the Friday only for them to blow out. Aside from a couple of placed horses in handicaps it was only Gaelic that saved the day for Fridays selections.
Thanks for all the mentions and suggestions so far, and here are my thoughts.
Firstly I don't do many of these cos I don;t always agree they are good bets.
I still don't and I don;t recommend you do the one I suggest either, but what if it wins ?
(it won't btw)
I believe the point of any bet is to get the value and so with antepost you should always be looking for horses that are likely to be a shorter SP than the price you take. It is not about picking a winner. It's about getting into a position to make money or not lose any money more often than not.
I also believe (as you all should, cos it's obvious
) you should be betting on horses who are most likely to run in the race you are backing them for. This only changes with NRNB.
Being so far away from next year and with many races and things to happen still, it is also best to stick to horses with a consistent profile IMO. i.e the ones that turn up most days and run reasonably to their usual level. Especially at the festival itself.
The problem at this time of year and especially in the modern age of even tighter bookmakers, the obvious shortener's are almost non- existent.
There were some good efforts on the yankee's last year, many were unlucky with non runners etc, and I get why for one of the legs you might go for a flyer on a novice hurdler, but I don;t think that's a great idea when one or more of your selections is likely to miss for some reason anyway.
And congrats to Lobos with his handicap effort, although he didn't listen (as usual) when I tried to persuade him to change his weakest link.
For anyone only just starting this game it really is good advice to stay away from all the novice hurdle races including the triumph for as long as possible. This applies to yankees and single bets.
It is a massive plus to have someone like Jim on here who pays close attention to the French stuff, and this is no doubt his edge, much like it was for the cartoon dog back when he could be bothered to come on here and say something with spelling mistakes (used to drive me mad his spelling). But if you're not them, and you just pick and choose from time to time then you're just hoping to get lucky.
The other issue is that it is clear now that they are all purchasing more juveniles from France and less from the points, as they all want to get in there early, and the point to point merchants have been talking too much.
They are having to buy them earlier than ever before they have more evidence and this is why Mullins is loaded with so many. And with the introduction of the new handicap runs required it is also helpful for trainers running in handicaps for the 5 year old season.
My mate's grandson has been signed for Man City and he's only fucking 4yrs old WTF.
Basically if it carries on they will be buying foals with good breeding.
But if we're honest we end up with many many French horses getting talked about that just end up as just other horses and they obviously don't all end up like Lossiemouth's, or Kargese's or Gaelic Warriors. The pool has got a lot bigger.
It is these three that I think should be in the first yankee.
Partly because two of them represent the only piece of racing memorabilia or item I have ever purchased - a rich ricci colours scarf ( £40 off a lass on the train back to Birmingham after Annie won the champion) I tell myself these days it was £40 quid, but got a feeling it was more
Not even got a fat jockey badge have I kevin ?
I shouldn't have to really explain why these should be the choices as they all have excellent festival records.
Gaelic has become much more consistent as he's got older and I cannot really see him not returning to defend his title.
I can see a Durkan, King George, Gold cup type of season for him, with possibly the Irish gold cup like this year.
Whilst I think he's too short I can see him being sent off a shorter SP unless he has issues with his health.
He may also be a better price during the season as an individual bet as h'es unlikely to go unbeaten from now till then.
He will only be 9 which gives him a shout to repeat.
I don;t know his best price right now but B365 are 4-1
Lossiemouth should really come back to defend also, and I cannot see anything with obvious credentials that can get near her at Cheltenham, unless Sir Gino makes a miracle recovery. There is certainly no obvious novice out there, and they were all shite this year.
The risk is her going to the mares, but what is going to spook them to run there after this years performance ?
They basically proved themselves to be mugs and it was all down to the fucking magic cheek pieces (more likely bullshit than not)
And me getting up in the middle of a packed pub in benidorm cheering and shouting fuck off at the screen got me some weird looks. But it was aimed at all the doubters and fools that thought she wasn't a champion hurdle horse. Even Gino and a close to his best C Hill might not have beat her last week.
Think she is 3-1 B365, haven;t seen better. This is too short IMO but she has a better chance of the other two of staying unbeaten as BDA is likely to go chasing now, and the division is basically her and handicappers rated 155 or below. Unless we get a novice making masses of improvement and staying hurdling then she could go odd odds on quite easily. She will also only be 8 next year.
Kargese just looks solid at the price versus another weak division and some other novices that have less consistent profiles for fitness and form on the track, so at 10-1 for an arkle winner to return for the queen mother seems reasonable enough to me. She does not look like she could run in any other race really.
Not sure if Kargese is available at bigger than 10-1 anywhere at the moment ?
As with Gaelic, it will be tricky for Kargese to remain unbeaten and so her price may be higher during the next 12 months but on the day I'd be happy to have her running for me at 10-1, even if she's up against Kopek, Marine (for example) who may have beaten her through the season. She;s also likely to get beat first time up like the last two years.
The final choice I'm undecided on but cannot see any other race except the arkle. The BANC just looks two deep in terms of potential candidates.
These days the Stayers looks like a race where you could run it 10 times and get 10 different winners, so that can get fucked.
As I said before, the novice hurdle races are a mugs game although I do like the bumper winner and the horse it beat earlier in the season that Jim tipped up.
The mares I considered but I do worry that Wodhooh will try 3 miles at some point, possibly punchestown as Elliott might be light on runners at aintree if he still thinks he has a sniff at the title, and if she hoses up then the stayers becomes a strong consideration.
There are is also potential competition coming in the likes of some of the mullins juveniles, like selma and majolique.
Air of entitlement who should have run this year may run also and she'd have a shout.
Then there is also Oldschool outlaw, who looked much the best horse in the mares novice and was given another jingoistic ride, paying too much attention to the favourites arse when there where nicer arses in the room.
I also respect the winner of the mares novice who I imagine is over priced for this race.
So it just looks too trappy and Wodhooh too short for the risk this far out.
So arkle it is ?
Not get any trainer comments as missed most of that sort of stuff but if Old Park Star was committed to chasing then he is the most obvious and I think is 9-2 with B365. He looks an obvious shortener to me.
My daddypaddy looks good also.
And Sober Glory might want to go further next year maybe ?
If I'm honest, I'd probably prefer to go for a flyer at a bigger price so I'm open to opinions.
Mighty Park looks interesting at 33-1 and can be forgiven his supreme run as they just were asking him too much (poor from the stable IMO)
He looks an obvious chaser in the making and even though they were talking him up stupidly, he obviously works well enough.
I also Like Kabral du mathan if Skelton has suggested fences.
But 2 things put me off. Hamster face is as stubborn and clueless at times as our very own
@Lobos.
Which makes me think that even if it's blindingly obvious Kabral is a better arkle prospect than paddy, he'll fuck it up and not go with that.
Anyways this is already a really long post.
I have always said I over think things though
Let me have your thoughts on the arkle fellas.
Or if you have a strong case for anything else as the door is always open for a strong case, even a novice hurdler.
Grand National looks too tricky for me
@Eggs
I'd be tempted for the 2 that ran so close in the Ultima if I was forced but the race is very different these days and 160+ horses cannot be ruled out (and I used to rule out most rated 150+). Lecky Watson and stellar story are also of interest to me.
, if he’s still there he might be ‘busy’.
