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Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets

For anyone looking at Defi du Seuil for the Arkle/chasing next year, little snippet today from Frank Berry:

Owner JP McManus' racing manager Frank Berry said: "He's finished for the season now.

"He's had a fantastic year, better than anyone could have hoped, and now we'll give him the summer off and a nice break. As for next year, it hasn't been discussed but I'd imagine he'll stay over hurdles. He's been great all year and he's earned a break."
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Kevloaf said:
50s? Coney Island? - Good spot OV.
Coneygree 50s with PP, 16s with 365 ... stupid price for the GC! Obviously plenty against him even making it, age, ability, soundness, ground dependant... but whats 1 point :devilish:
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Bearing in mind he's on course to run Wednesday, If he were to win then 50's would be long gone even with all the risks mentioned
 
Hurricane fly said:
You would think Samcro and BBB will be kept apart, and I'm purely spit balling but would anyone be surprised if Gigginstown avoids the AB with its first string? Death Duty and No more heroes both being turned over in the last two years, if they did I would assume Samcro for the supreme and BBB for the Neptune but that also depends on us even seeing BBB again and a lot can change in the next 11 months
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Agree. Samcro showed a real good turn of foot last time out too so the shorter trips may well suit best. Neptune could be ideal if I was to pick a target now but 12's any race looks a good bet when he's 16's for that
 
Kevloaf said:
I am definitely warming to the idea of Our Duke being a huge contender. If Thistlecrack can come back and we don't get half the bad luck we had this year, this could be a mega race. Absolutely mega.
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Every year around this time and the start of the NH season the Gold Cup looks to be an extremely deep race with lots of top class horses. We usually lose a few along the way and it never ends up how we hoped, I don't want to speak too soon but yeah if they were to all line up....wow!! Unbelievable and so many different angles into the race. Fingers crossed...
 
jono said:
For anyone looking at Defi du Seuil for the Arkle/chasing next year, little snippet today from Frank Berry:
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I don't think I would fancy DDS for any hurdle race at Cheltenham next year... at this stage. I'd want to see the group of 4YO do well next year before considering backing him for the CH. Certainl;y not a betting prospect at single figures (8/1) for me.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Contact @willhillhelp on Twitter Kev. I deposited £100, they placed the bet and gave me a reference code. Only problem is that the bet doesn't show in list of open bets.

Most other firms offered me either 7/1 or 8/1.
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Thanks - I'll try and get on. I think 8/1 is a fair price... he'll go off shorter in one of the hurdle races regardless.
 
Sutton Place @ 16/1 Stayers
Coney Island @ 50/1 GC
Yanworth @ 10/1 JLT
Cause Of Causes @ 9/1 CC
Lucky 15, 15 bets
 
Been jogging along , doing a few L.15's.
1. - Limini - ch hdle - 20-1
2. - Douvan - ch chs - 3-1
3. - Lil Rockerfeller - styrs - 25-1
4. - Our Duke - g.cup -33-1
and a L.31.
1. - M. bite - k.george - 5-1
2. -B. d'air - ch hdle - 5-1
3. -Altior - ch chs -2-1
4. - N.cnyn - styrs - 6-1
5. M. bite - G.cup - 10-1
 
It might be way too early to predict, but what race do we think Fayonagh runs in next year?
 
The most obvious race would be the Mares Novice but i wouldn't rule out the Supreme or Neptune. She looks very talented!
 
Mares novice would be a waste ... but a winner is winner at the festival and Elliott is a numbers man... Codd also probably want a winner and the mares race most obvious. Having already beaten the boys twice I hope she is campaigned aggressively. 5/1 if it was a confirmed target would be massive but Mullins will clearly have loads to through towards it you'd assume?
 
Too good to be targeting a G2 race, would have to be the Supreme for me...
 
Yeah the Mares novices looks most obvious that would feel such a waste for me
 
I've not backed him but loved the performance of Great Fields yesterday. He's a bit heart in mouth at his fences but when he meets them right he is so quick at them, making ground on the field at every obstacle yesterday.

He's an interesting addition to the two mile chasers.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I've not backed him but loved the performance of Great Fields yesterday. He's a bit heart in mouth at his fences but when he meets them right he is so quick at them, making ground on the field at every obstacle yesterday.

He's an interesting addition to the two mile chasers.
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A bit of the UDS about him in his earlier days?
 
I was disappointed Great Field didn't go to the Arkle as I would have taken Altior on with him.

Best prices 14/1 for the QMCC, he could be a good one for an ante post long shot e/w L15
 
Sad the hear the news about Labaik. Loved watching him race, even if his beating of Melon cost me an absolute fortune.
 
Douvan
Tongue in cheek a bit, but with Altior beating Special Tiara (as we knew he would) little old Douvan might just be a few points too big? *thinking out loud here*

I didn't take the prices on Altior before the Arkle, I know some have 5/1 which looks brilliant now, and the target is assured.

It is all about the prices at this stage, so before I even think about who I think would win ..... Douvan at 7/2 is laughable? Only major stumbling block I can see, is him actually turning up. :highly_amused: Now, [look away as I am wasting time guessing about a Mullins horses' target], I don't think it is as clear cut as people think that he will step up in trip. The Gold Cup division looks very hot now, with Might Bite, Thistlecrack, Sizing John, Our Duke, Coneygree, even Djakadam after his run at Punches! and potentially Yorkhill - I know I wouldn't be rushing to try him out... ? I have a nagging sound bite in my head from Ruby comparing him to Kauto Star, and it would echo that great legend if he did now step up...

So, I've changed my own mind, is 6/4 on Altior STILL a good price now. We know where he is going, we know he has the CC 2nd and 3rd covered with 10l+ in hand and there is significant question mark over whether Douvan will turn up! They might have another crack at him with Min?

4 pts on each? 4 Altior, 2 Douvan?

6/4 Altior
7/2 Douvan

I don't want to be too bullish about who I think would win at this stage, but I am just looking at an angle in to this race as an ante-post book... having "both" running for me would be brilliant... and allow me much closer to the time to very safely pick a side!
 
I'm a massive Altior fan and think he'd beat Douvsn all things being equal, that said, 6/4 Altior with 11 months to go is too short.

Not sure locking up points on Douvan and Altior at those prices is the way to go at the moment Kev.

Any news on Min?
 
I can't see any championship markets moving between now and Sept/Oct unless there's big injury news so I'm not tempted by the AP prices.
There might be some mileage in novice races if you know where the big boys are spending their cash...
 
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