Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets

[MrMcGoldrick]

I'm going to look for horses with new targets next year, or horses new to the fez maybe, possibly ones that have run well there and are looking to go one better. So few actually defend a title successfully it seems like a reasonable idea to think a little outside the box, probably mix in a few champs, but concentrating on others may prove quite fruitful, better prices in the main too, anyone else looking to try this approach. This is mainly for AP multis, nothing major for me till much nearer the time

 

[Kevloaf]

Where do you think U.D.S will run Kev ? , if not in the Ryanair ., I would have thought it's 90% certain to run there,
unless subbing for Douvan in the ch. chs, But as someone said here , ( Ista ? ) , couldn't guess willie's runners in
march let alone Apr /may.

UDS - I'd think the Ryanair. I can only see that he'd go back in trip for the CC if it was soft ground OR Douvan/Min aren't going to turn up. I do think UDS would have won the CC this year and that would be more of a factor but I don't get the impression the owners are calling any of the shots. The only 'other' factor I could see is Ruby deciding Djakadam (or to a much lesser extent Yorkhill/Douvan) are 'good things' in the lead up. I don't think 5/1 is a massive price by any stretch, and I wouldn't back it as a single - but I think its a fairly confident target and a horse that is under rated because he was beaten twice by SS.

I am expecting Mullins to "bounce back" tremendously next year both in Ireland and at Chelt. 6 winners this year with the amount of injuries was spectacular and 'if it ain't broke....' - Bit harsh to say he needs to "bounce back" in fairness, but I'm sure you get my gist.

I appreciate what Ista and others say about the targets and Mullins and it is definitely a factor BUT it can be used to your advantage. He is a creature of habit moreso than the average trainer, and I don't think there was any 'last minute' switching this year either, every target was pretty well documented or not mentioned. Even as an example - Limini and VVM all the comments said they might take each other on and I (we) assumed it wouldn't happen. Let's Dance in the mares novice and her being better for a step up in trip is the most annoying 'switch' I can think of personally although he didn't ever mention a race for her other than the mares novice?

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Kev

It doesn't have to be last minute switches, the fact every one of his has multilple entries and nothing gets confirmed until days before the race makes AP punting a lottery.
I agree it can be used to your advantage but when the likes of VVM had 6 entries at the five day dec stage, that is nothing more than a piss take and there should be rules to prevent that.
Just my take on it....

 

[archie]

It's the owners, not the AP punters, who pay the entry and forfeit fees. If they're happy (and they are) then AP punters, by definition people who should know better, have only themselves to blame.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

It's the owners, not the AP punters, who pay the entry and forfeit fees. If they're happy (and they are) then AP punters, by definition people who should know better, have only themselves to blame.

Completely agree, though I believe the authorities should adopt rules that prevent multi entries (more than 2/3)...

 

[BigChaang]

I'd agree with you Kev, I think willie will be a force to be reckoned with next year , Melon , Min, yorkhill , douvan , nichols canyon
, Lets dance to name a few . Sadly, I don't think we will see Annie or Faugheen , But I'd be glad to be
wrong on that score. i wonder if Senewalk will be as good as expected ?.

 

[Kevloaf]

Kev

It doesn't have to be last minute switches, the fact every one of his has multilple entries and nothing gets confirmed until days before the race makes AP punting a lottery.
I agree it can be used to your advantage but when the likes of VVM had 6 entries at the five day dec stage, that is nothing more than a piss take and there should be rules to prevent that.
Just my take on it....

I wouldn't have a problem with the number on entries being limited, anything to make it easier would be a bonus... but I'm not unhappy at the moment. People say on the TV all the time that 'ante post racing is dead' and I just don't see it. Maybe it is because I didn't do it when it was easier, so to me it just seems like a great challenge.

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

Surprised Min isn't being quoted for the novice chase events, not much of a price where he is quoted either given his lack of experience.
Yorkhill is shortest in the Champ chase but I'm sure he'll go over further.
Will watch Melon with interest because he has chaser written all over him, but would like to see him jump a fence first.
I think isty is right though, it's a lottery at this point, will stick a few small doubles and trebles on to try to catch a few big prices

 

[Kevloaf]

Surprised Min isn't being quoted for the novice chase events, not much of a price where he is quoted either given his lack of experience.
Yorkhill is shortest in the Champ chase but I'm sure he'll go over further.
Will watch Melon with interest because he has chaser written all over him, but would like to see him jump a fence first.
I think isty is right though, it's a lottery at this point, will stick a few small doubles and trebles on to try to catch a few big prices

Min won't be a novice chaser next season as he has won a chase this season?

Melon is interesting, as Mullins said they bought him to be a future Champion Hurdler but he does look like he has the scope for a fence. Would certainly make you think they're leaning towards fences? 16/1 for the Arkle might be worth putting in speculatively?

 

[archie]

Completely agree, though I believe the authorities should adopt rules that prevent multi entries (more than 2/3)...

But why, Isty? You'd be telling the people who pay the money that they aren't allowed options. I can just about see it for 5 day entries but for early closers it would be totally wrong. Most of the Grade Ones at Cheltenham close before potential runners have had their prep race so to limit entries then would be a nonsense.
People who try to second guess Willie (or Gordon or the O'Learys for that matter) should be fully aware that, to give his owners the best chance, he doesn't make up his mind until the last minute so to whinge when an eleven month old bet doesn't get a run is just pointless. The Vautour incident was unfortunate but was very much a one off because of Ricci's well-intentioned but foolish comments.

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

Couldn't remember Min winning a chase tbh, will be difficult to weigh up such a lack of experience though, and it certainly isn't reflected in his price quotes, connections dictate lower prices than reasonable I suppose.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

But why, Isty? You'd be telling the people who pay the money that they aren't allowed options. I can just about see it for 5 day entries but for early closers it would be totally wrong. Most of the Grade Ones at Cheltenham close before potential runners have had their prep race so to limit entries then would be a nonsense.
People who try to second guess Willie (or Gordon or the O'Learys for that matter) should be fully aware that, to give his owners the best chance, he doesn't make up his mind until the last minute so to whinge when an eleven month old bet doesn't get a run is just pointless. The Vautour incident was unfortunate but was very much a one off because of Ricci's well-intentioned but foolish comments.

I find that it's best just to ignore WPM runners ante post - unless they are big priced novices.

 

[Kevloaf]

Couldn't remember Min winning a chase tbh, will be difficult to weigh up such a lack of experience though, and it certainly isn't reflected in his price quotes, connections dictate lower prices than reasonable I suppose.

I guess if you take the view (that plenty did have) that he was a good bet to beat Altior in the Arkle, given Altior's performance in that and the difference in price between the two it isn't a huge leap of faith to see why the price is what it is.

I was firmly in the 'Altior is better' and would have liked to have seen them match up to prove it either way. If Douvan doesn't run in the CC, then Min would step in and 12/1 is a decent each way price - however I wouldn't take 12/1 about a horse I think would be running for a place, this far out, who is coming back from an injury that might not even turn up.

I wonder if they'd revert him back to hurdles - best price only 16/1 for that

 

[Brital]

Min won a couple of Novice chases at the end of last year.
He beat Ordinary World at Leopardstown on Boxing Day. It was why I backed OW without Altior in the Arkle, cos there was no way he was ridden to win that day.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

But why, Isty? You'd be telling the people who pay the money that they aren't allowed options. I can just about see it for 5 day entries but for early closers it would be totally wrong. Most of the Grade Ones at Cheltenham close before potential runners have had their prep race so to limit entries then would be a nonsense.
People who try to second guess Willie (or Gordon or the O'Learys for that matter) should be fully aware that, to give his owners the best chance, he doesn't make up his mind until the last minute so to whinge when an eleven month old bet doesn't get a run is just pointless. The Vautour incident was unfortunate but was very much a one off because of Ricci's well-intentioned but foolish comments.

The industry is closely alligned to gambling therefore those within it have obligations to every link in that chain, including punters, how many options is reasonable ?
My issue isn't with multiple entries well ahead of the race, but I used the VVM example because she was declared for six races at each 5 day dec stage, how connections don't know whether a horse is heading for a 2m hurdle race or 3m chase is beyond me....

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

The industry is closely alligned to gambling therefore those within it have obligations to every link in that chain, including punters, how many options is reasonable ?
My issue isn't with multiple entries well ahead of the race, but I used the VVM example because she was declared for six races at each 5 day dec stage, how connections don't know whether a horse is heading for a 2m hurdle race or 3m chase is beyond me....

I agree Ista. WPM has shown disdain towards punters on several occasions in the past - the VVM fiasco at Sandown last season was another example.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

FM, I was there that day, looking down on the parade ring and suddenly a blanket goes over the horse and he's led off back to the stables, disgraceful.
Disregard for racegoers and for the betting industry...

 

[jono]

I think Buveur D'air will take some beating next season, still only 6 years old, lightly raced and plenty of improvement to come.

Fully agree with this FM - I wasn't 100% convinced after Cheltenham but Aintree just confirmed how much superior this horse is and could mix it with the last few runnings of the CH. Very hard to see what can trouble him next year considering we should see more improvement from age and the fact he'll have a proper champion hurdle campaign and not a last minute switch.

Briefly on Yanworth - Kev would you not be worried about him having that extra season over hurdles, would be 8 at the festival next year. There was a good article on how these horses (who stay more an extra year+ over hurdles before chasing) fare before the festival this year:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/when-classy-hurdlers-go-chasing/

The horses highlighted from this season were:

In the current season, we have seven such horses and the early returns have been ordinary. The group comprises Taglietelle, Identity Thief, Alpha Des Obeaux, Diamond King, Lieutenant Colonel, Gwencily Berbas and Briar Hill

Though not a theory that should rule out a horse entirely I do agree with the majority of it (even though i was backing ADO!) and would at this stage make me look more towards the likes of Finains Oscar, Neon Wolf, Willoughby Court etc than Yanworth - who is currently fav (albeit not by much) and very likely to be around the head of the market all season*

 

[Kevloaf]

Yeah it would put me off a bit jono, for him to be the winner of the race. Certainly a stat I'd forgotten about a bit, but I am sure there are expections (Thistlecrack?) so I wouldn't let it put me off entirely. I'm obviously not suggesting he is my idea of the winner of any race at all yet, we'd need to see him jumping fences for starters ... but I do think taking double figures, you'll have a good chance of beating the SP and the target seems 'obvious' to me. For the way I punt and will continue to do, he's around the cusp of what I'd consider backing at the moment... because I just think he'll shorten up and that creates options moving forwards.

FO, WC and NW will all be very high on my 'to follow' list, but inevitably (as with Yanworth I suppose) they aren't likely to get missed in any markets at any stage...

 

[jono]

I'm obviously not suggesting he is my idea of the winner of any race at all yet

Haha, yeah I only picked it out having seen him in your yankee and a couple of other mentions through the forum. I think you're right in the JLT being the most likely target, and unless he just doesn't take to fences (something I do think could happen), it's not hard to see his price halving within just a couple of small field novice chase wins so on that basis it's hard to argue getting him onside sooner rather than later.