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2026 Champion Hurdle

Lobos said:
Step forward the great Alexei
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Covered him yesterday, and El Fab.....all I have left is Lossie who if she lines up I'll back on the day, not covered Anzadam but if he wins a Champion Hurdle I'll streak the final furlong on Gold Cup day :ROFLMAO:
 
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Evesham Road said:
You cannot seriously be reflecting on what happened as consistent with your hopes for the race.

At least I hope not.
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If you mean do I think the chances of Lossiemouth winning the CH have increased after what happened to Gino and the underwhelming performance of TNL......then yes.

Of course I, like everyone else, hate to see any horse get injured.
 
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Istabraq said:
Can someone point me in the direction of which piece of 2m form Lossiemouth has that makes her a Champion Hurdle certainty....
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Couple of lengths behind Constitution Hill at Kempton - a repeat of that should be more than good enough and she is consistent. No reason to think she can’t repeat that. Of course if CH turns up in his prime it’s a different story.
 
Istabraq said:
Can someone point me in the direction of which piece of 2m form Lossiemouth has that makes her a Champion Hurdle certainty....
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Point me in the direction of a horse that will beat her in March ?
 
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Odddog said:
Couple of lengths behind Constitution Hill at Kempton - a repeat of that should be more than good enough and she is consistent. No reason to think she can’t repeat that. Of course if CH turns up in his prime it’s a different story.
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OK thanks.
If that's the defence would the proximity of Burdett Road not be a negative, especially as he finished further behind Golden Ace at Cheltenham ?
Mentioning RPRs can invite ridicule but I'll take a chance, that Christmas Hurdle awarded 155 to Burdett Road and 152 to Lossie + 7 = 159, is that good enough ? It might well be in a year where arguably the three obvious challengers are all out, I'm just not convinced and hoping someone can fill in the gap I'm missing...
 
Whilst I don't think Lossiemouth is a cert, I do think she should go CH and not mares. You know she will run to the mid-160s (including her allowance) and the question for me is, can any of the others run to that? I'm assuming CH and Sir Gino don't make it, you are then left scratching around for ANYTHING with an OR above 160. The New Lion could do, but I think he would need it to be a real stamina test as he looks like being better over further.

I'd probably add that Burdett Road is no mug and is (unfortunately for connections) one of those horses who is now rated far too high for handicaps but can't compete at the top level (a bit like Rubaud). You could probably equally use the proximity of Casheldale Lad at Christmas to crab the 2 Irish mares form so a lot of it is questionable in terms of a Champion Hurdle.
 
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Istabraq said:
OK thanks.
If that's the defence would the proximity of Burdett Road not be a negative, especially as he finished further behind Golden Ace at Cheltenham ?
Mentioning RPRs can invite ridicule but I'll take a chance, that Christmas Hurdle awarded 155 to Burdett Road and 152 to Lossie + 7 = 159, is that good enough ? It might well be in a year where arguably the three obvious challengers are all out, I'm just not convinced and hoping someone can fill in the gap I'm missing...
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You ok Ista ?
 
Sir Gino update on RP, 2 small fractures isn't great but all things considered is as good a news as they could've got, he'll be cross tied for a bit then allowed home where it'll be the same until the fractures heal, he can race again and unlikely this would affect him ability-wise, again it's another spell on the sidelines, sure they'll do whats best for him, but if you owned him, given how it unfolded yesterday, you couldn't have heard better news today.
 
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Odddog said:
Whilst I don't think Lossiemouth is a cert, I do think she should go CH and not mares. You know she will run to the mid-160s (including her allowance) and the question for me is, can any of the others run to that? I'm assuming CH and Sir Gino don't make it, you are then left scratching around for ANYTHING with an OR above 160. The New Lion could do, but I think he would need it to be a real stamina test as he looks like being better over further.
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Can she run to mid 160s over 2 miles ?
20 furlongs absolutely no doubt, but Old Course on possible decent ground ?
Like you I am not convinced anything else represents a better option I just want convincing Lossie will hit those numbers over 2 miles or do I just accept the bar is sufficiently lower this year because of the absences and high 150s (RPR) will be good enough....
 
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Istabraq said:
Can she run to mid 160s over 2 miles ?
20 furlongs absolutely no doubt, but Old Course on possible decent ground ?
Like you I am not convinced anything else represents a better option I just want convincing Lossie will hit those numbers over 2 miles or do I just accept the bar is sufficiently lower this year because of the absences and high 150s (RPR) will be good enough....
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Yeah I suppose that is the nagging doubt. Triumph winners are often more about stamina than speed and that win, plus arguably her most visiually impressive win (in the 2024 Unibet Hurdle) were both on the new course. But I think she could be another Annie Power in that respect and, given there doesn't appear to be a real 2 mile speed specialist in the field, she ought to be good enough. It would be some sight to behold if she came round the final bend with Harry Skelton motionless on The New Lion just behind her :)
 
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She wont need to run to mid 160s

Unless BDA produces her very best theres nothing else that can even run to 160 around at the moment

Its likely to be

Lossie
The new lion (another horse better over further)
BDA (doubts about the track)
Anzadam (nutjob and potential dodgepot)
Golden ace (Admirable but not high class)
Maybe con hill (miles past his best and jumping confidence shot to pieces)
Maybe el fabiolo (Aintree?)
Then a bunch of handicappers

Is el fab worth chancing? He likely has the most latent ability of them all bar the hill

He may go straight to aintree unless he wins at the DRF

Could be one to play WTAF at a huge price for a very small stake
 
She's ran to 160 RPR the last twice - add another 7 and any gelding has to run to 167.
Her official Irish rating is 159, so again - something has to run to 166.
It's not like she's inconsistent or doesn't like the track either.
 
EnvoiAlien said:
Sir Gino update on RP, 2 small fractures isn't great but all things considered is as good a news as they could've got, he'll be cross tied for a bit then allowed home where it'll be the same until the fractures heal, he can race again and unlikely this would affect him ability-wise, again it's another spell on the sidelines, sure they'll do whats best for him, but if you owned him, given how it unfolded yesterday, you couldn't have heard better news today.
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That’s brilliant news, thanks Envoi.
 
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FinalFurlong91 said:
She wont need to run to mid 160s

Unless BDA produces her very best theres nothing else that can even run to 160 around at the moment

Its likely to be

Lossie
The new lion (another horse better over further)
BDA (doubts about the track)
Anzadam (nutjob and potential dodgepot)
Golden ace (Admirable but not high class)
Maybe con hill (miles past his best and jumping confidence shot to pieces)
Maybe el fabiolo (Aintree?)
Then a bunch of handicappers

Is el fab worth chancing? He likely has the most latent ability of them all bar the hill

He may go straight to aintree unless he wins at the DRF

Could be one to play WTAF at a huge price for a very small stake
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Just had his form franked has El FAb
 
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Id suggest itll be tougher for lossie to win at the drf than at the festival

Bda at a track she likes vs at a track she doesnt and lossie loves
 
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