• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Related Bets (ideas)

I suppose if AOI doesn't stay on trials day , they could both end up in the Supreme. Can't see OPS moving away from the opener whatever.
 
If Old Park Star doesn’t go supreme I’ll eat my hat…..someone pass the salt the pepper :ROFLMAO:

On a serious note though, as a couple of others have said his last 2 performances have been reminiscent of a horse formally trained by Mr Henderson, I’m not going to say the name either, but that last day at Cheltenham was what nailed it and then to back it up today, something at the DRF is going to have the cross the line doing handstands to become fav.
 
Some related form bets at the weekend that may interest some.

Minella Yoga - Act of Innocence
Deviluno - Dr Steinberg
Feet of a Dancer - Wodhooh
Califet en vol - Regents Stroll/Miami Magic
Impose Toi - Honesty Policy (probably best to break this bet as price may get nudged but would boost his chances IMO)

Then not so much form but for anyone all in on Sir Gino, or Lossie and New Lion fans.

New Lion (sat) - Lossiemouth CH - Wodhooh Mares - Treble, is probably worthy of small stakes.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Benjy23, Ballyfitz, isitmarchyet and 1 other person
Plenty of rain around at Cheltenham by the looks of it and ground is already soft.

The cotswold chase is generally a bit of a slog and i’m not sure the conditions are going to suit Grey Dawning, and looks a short price to me as a result.

If beaten, I could easily see the Skeltons changing path from a strong looking gold cup to a weak ryanair.

20/1 for the ryanair is probably a bit short on its own, but i’m going to double this with Spillane’s Tower on Saturday to give a 104/1 double. He’s been a bit disappointing since his 2nd in last years john durkan but Kempton didn’t look to suit and he did finish 2nd to Galopin at Punchestown on better ground than he’d like. First run over fences since with conditions he should love.

I’d expect Flooring Porter to need this first run in a while and L’Homme Presse is 11 with a full penalty this year and Venetia still out of form. If Grey Dawning runs below par I think Spillane’s Tower will be the one to pick up the pieces.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Quevega
Luke95 said:
Plenty of rain around at Cheltenham by the looks of it and ground is already soft.

The cotswold chase is generally a bit of a slog and i’m not sure the conditions are going to suit Grey Dawning, and looks a short price to me as a result.

If beaten, I could easily see the Skeltons changing path from a strong looking gold cup to a weak ryanair.

20/1 for the ryanair is probably a bit short on its own, but i’m going to double this with Spillane’s Tower on Saturday to give a 104/1 double. He’s been a bit disappointing since his 2nd in last years john durkan but Kempton didn’t look to suit and he did finish 2nd to Galopin at Punchestown on better ground than he’d like. First run over fences since with conditions he should love.

I’d expect Flooring Porter to need this first run in a while and L’Homme Presse is 11 with a full penalty this year and Venetia still out of form. If Grey Dawning runs below par I think Spillane’s Tower will be the one to pick up the pieces.
Click to expand...
Why would it not suit Grey Dawning? Has form on soft. His 2nd to Royal Pagaille in the Betfair Chase on soft was his first run in open company and against a horse who thrives in the conditions. Since then he has shown steady improvement over fences in each of his runs according to RPRs. Majority of his novice chase runs came on soft ground whilst his best hurdle performance was on heavy.

As a backer got the GC I wouldn't want him having a hard race in the conditions, but equally understand it is a great pot when you are chasing a trainers title. Flooring Porter and L'Homme Presse should ensure a decent gallop as well which would suit Grey Dawning who can get into a rhythm in behind.
 
Quevega said:
Some related form bets at the weekend that may interest some.

Minella Yoga - Act of Innocence
Deviluno - Dr Steinberg
Feet of a Dancer - Wodhooh
Califet en vol - Regents Stroll/Miami Magic
Impose Toi - Honesty Policy (probably best to break this bet as price may get nudged but would boost his chances IMO)

Then not so much form but for anyone all in on Sir Gino, or Lossie and New Lion fans.

New Lion (sat) - Lossiemouth CH - Wodhooh Mares - Treble, is probably worthy of small stakes.
Click to expand...


After seeing him mentioned in Novice Hurdle thread, could add one with second with a related Trixie of Kovanis in the Pipe, Doctor Steinberg in the Bartlett and the Deviluno on Saturday.

1-2-3 at Navan
 
Runragged said:
Why would it not suit Grey Dawning? Has form on soft. His 2nd to Royal Pagaille in the Betfair Chase on soft was his first run in open company and against a horse who thrives in the conditions. Since then he has shown steady improvement over fences in each of his runs according to RPRs. Majority of his novice chase runs came on soft ground whilst his best hurdle performance was on heavy.

As a backer got the GC I wouldn't want him having a hard race in the conditions, but equally understand it is a great pot when you are chasing a trainers title. Flooring Porter and L'Homme Presse should ensure a decent gallop as well which would suit Grey Dawning who can get into a rhythm in behind.
Click to expand...
It's not the ground.
It's ground and trip. :ROFLMAO:
Although I'm not so sure the opposition is as strong as the novice hurdle race.
He may just get away with it and keep your bet alive.
 
Quevega said:
It's not the ground.
It's ground and trip. :ROFLMAO:
Although I'm not so sure the opposition is as strong as the novice hurdle race.
He may just get away with it and keep your bet alive.
Click to expand...
So what has he done wrong to make you think the trip and ground together is an issue? Just wondering what I have missed as to me he is a horse who jumps and stays well. Got beaten by Gaelic Warrior in the Golden Miller who was ridden more patiently having been prominent throughout. Stage Star who competed for the lead faded away badly in the closing stages whilst Grey Dawning plodded on well. Then in the Betfair it was his first run in Open company against Royale Pagaille who loves it around Haydock on soft ground. I also think he hit the front too soon that day and idled but still learnt plenty from it.
 
Runragged said:
So what has he done wrong to make you think the trip and ground together is an issue? Just wondering what I have missed as to me he is a horse who jumps and stays well. Got beaten by Gaelic Warrior in the Golden Miller who was ridden more patiently having been prominent throughout. Stage Star who competed for the lead faded away badly in the closing stages whilst Grey Dawning plodded on well. Then in the Betfair it was his first run in Open company against Royale Pagaille who loves it around Haydock on soft ground. I also think he hit the front too soon that day and idled but still learnt plenty from it.
Click to expand...
He hasn't done much wrong, he's just not done enough right, as of yet, to be a serious contender for the Gold cup in this particularly competitive renewal IMO.
I certainly don't see his Betfair chase win this year as much improvement on the year before at all, as I've mentioned previously, he had better ground and a better ride
If he wins on Saturday then this would be another small step forward, so we'll see.
 
As Q says it’s more trip and ground, i’m just not sure 25.5f around Cheltenham on soft ground will see him to best effect.

Happy to be proven wrong and it’s by no means a strong opinion, I just thought that if one horse were to take advantage of any weaknesses it would be Spillane’s Tower, and if beaten in what I assume they are considering to be quite a weak race, they will reassess their Cheltenham target and look to take advantage of his bold jumping from the front in a weak looking Ryainair.

It’s over 100/1 for a reason but only needs to be a small play at the prices.
 
Yep beating an 11yr old Royal Pagaille on good to soft ground at haydock is miles off being a Gold cup contender IMO.
He reminds me of Protektorat and would be suited more to a well run Ryanair.
But I could be wrong and if he can grind them all off Saturday and win just as cosily as at Haydock then he'd deserve a chance.

But doubt I'd back him in that Gold cup field, because he'd still be going in having never really beat much, and he's 9 now and should probably have had a go last season. All they've done is left him hanging.

I think he's in here Saturday for the Money of course but also to prove to them that he can really get the trip and grind it out.
It could fall apart though so we'll see how it actually looks after the event.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Killiney and opatcho
Fair enough. I agree he has yet to be fully tested at the highest level. You could argue his 2nd to Gaelic Warrior is his best chase form which on what he has done this year puts him in the mix anyway for a Gold Cup. I like that he has been brought along steadily this year. Last season he had a hard race in the Betfair on soft ground then rushed him back for the King George which they instantly regretted. Thus they missed Cheltenham and targeted Aintree instead with a prep at Kelso. He would have no chance in my mind in a Ryanair, he just wouldn't be able to go the strong pace the race is run at. It would be almost 2 years since he was last over 2 1/2m and that was as a novice.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom