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2026 Champion Hurdle

So if Sir Gino wins fair and square on Sat, with conditions on Sat to suit TNL, then it really is ‘game over’ for any CH challenge from this side of the Irish Sea

Will TNL still run in the CH if he is comprehensively beaten on Saturday, with conditions in his favour?……does Sir Gino go odds on if winning well?
 
Wayward Lad said:
So if Sir Gino wins fair and square on Sat, with conditions on Sat to suit TNL, then it really is ‘game over’ for any CH challenge from this side of the Irish Sea

Will TNL still run in the CH if he is comprehensively beaten on Saturday, with conditions in his favour?……does Sir Gino go odds on if winning well?
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I think so.
The only weakness I see in Gino is the occasional fairy jumping.
This could cost him if anything is close enough to him.
He'll go odds on for sure IMO, until or unless Lossiemouth is a confirmed runner.
Even then he might stay a shade of odds on as he seems like one of those Henderson horses that gets over bet.
Which is often because of how good they look and you can't argue with that, but you can probably argue with the substance of the form and who he's actually beaten.

It'll be good for the race and prospect of the mare showing up if it's a close enough race on Saturday.
 
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Quevega said:
I think so.
The only weakness I see in Gino is the occasional fairy jumping.
This could cost him if anything is close enough to him.
He'll go odds on for sure IMO, until or unless Lossiemouth is a confirmed runner.
Even then he might stay a shade of odds on as he seems like one of those Henderson horses that gets over bet.
Which is often because of how good they look and you can't argue with that, but you can probably argue with the substance of the form and who he's actually beaten.

It'll be good for the race and prospect of the mare showing up if it's a close enough race on Saturday.
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100%. Am asswhooping for TNL (5L or more) and there’s no chance lossie turns up in my book. Gino be defo odds on. As you say, let’s hope for a close race to set up for a quality and deep champion hurdle.
 
Wayward Lad said:
So if Sir Gino wins fair and square on Sat, with conditions on Sat to suit TNL, then it really is ‘game over’ for any CH challenge from this side of the Irish Sea

Will TNL still run in the CH if he is comprehensively beaten on Saturday, with conditions in his favour?……does Sir Gino go odds on if winning well?
Click to expand...
I'm not sure conditions do suit the new lion, so i can see a scenario where sir gino wins fair and square (as in new lion completes the race with no mishaps) and the new lion still looks like he could turn the form around.

On one hand he's getting 3lbs, but thats not worth a whole lot if the race isn't ran to suit. Its shaping up like it might be a three runner race. So there's a good chance its very tactical and they go no gallop, which would suit the new lion the least imo. Sir gino looks an out and out two miler, and poniros is a flat horse with good form from 8f-12f. So the race turning into a sprint wouldn't be ideal. They could elect to make the running and set their own fractions to try and make it a test of stamina, but he didn't look to be in love with front running at Newcastle. So whatever they do probably won't show him at his best imo.

I think his ideal scenario in the champion hurdle would be getting a lead and hoping there's a strong pace on. As he's unlikely to get that on Saturday, i wouldn't be writing him off if beaten. As long as he runs respectably enough, even if he's beat 4 or 5 lengths I'd still give him a chance if the race didn't suit him at all.
 
riccirich said:
I'm not sure conditions do suit the new lion, so i can see a scenario where sir gino wins fair and square (as in new lion completes the race with no mishaps) and the new lion still looks like he could turn the form around.

On one hand he's getting 3lbs, but thats not worth a whole lot if the race isn't ran to suit. Its shaping up like it might be a three runner race. So there's a good chance its very tactical and they go no gallop, which would suit the new lion the least imo. Sir gino looks an out and out two miler, and poniros is a flat horse with good form from 8f-12f. So the race turning into a sprint wouldn't be ideal. They could elect to make the running and set their own fractions to try and make it a test of stamina, but he didn't look to be in love with front running at Newcastle. So whatever they do probably won't show him at his best imo.

I think his ideal scenario in the champion hurdle would be getting a lead and hoping there's a strong pace on. As he's unlikely to get that on Saturday, i wouldn't be writing him off if beaten. As long as he runs respectably enough, even if he's beat 4 or 5 lengths I'd still give him a chance if the race didn't suit him at all.
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Somebody else who gets it. Sir Gino looks speedy so small field 2m races look right up his street, especially last time around Kempton on good ground. Softer conditions and the 2m 1f of the New course will be more of a test albeit a small field and likely front runner, Nico will be able to set his own fractions and run to suit. However, come the Champion Hurdle, you could be looking at a pacemaker involved, several horses with top form at 2 1/2 miles and Sir Gino having to hurdle amongst horses rather than out on his own in front. Everything about Sir Gino is potential and I hate the fact that trainers may shy away from him all because of what he 'may' be able to do. It's not as though he has put up a 'Constitution Hill' type performance in his career to date to scare off competition.
 
Worth noting that as well as being on the stiffer New Course, the Unibet Hurdle will also be run over nearly a furlong further this Saturday than the Champion Hurdle as the rails have been moved out due to the ground.
 
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Lobos said:
Worth noting that as well as being on the stiffer New Course, the Unibet Hurdle will also be run over nearly a furlong further this Saturday than the Champion Hurdle as the rails have been moved out due to the ground.
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Just about to add this
 
Think there’s a fair chance of all to play for after this week.
Sir Gino should win imo, but I think it will be fairly close. I don’t think that’s when we find out exactly how good he can be, that imo will be March
Then it’s a case of whether that’s good enough to win the CH.
 
Think Gino will do more at home than he'll need this weekend, I rate TNL but he didn't look a 2 miler to me at Newcastle, looked like his legs couldn't go any faster while Golden Ace was travelling all over him last time, not normally this bullish or dismissive of one in a small field race but it'll take something akin to alien abduction midrace to get Gino beat here.
 
EnvoiAlien said:
Think Gino will do more at home than he'll need this weekend, I rate TNL but he didn't look a 2 miler to me at Newcastle, looked like his legs couldn't go any faster while Golden Ace was travelling all over him last time, not normally this bullish or dismissive of one in a small field race but it'll take something akin to alien abduction midrace to get Gino beat here.
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They might as well give him the trophy now then😀

Nemean Lion probably goes and beats them both to proper piss on everyone's chips!
 
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Going to be deep ground if this rain carries on. Could get some false results and plenty of non runners. Bloody weather !!!!
 
Meant to ease off by midnight and then just light rain and breezy there on in until racing. It'll be on but won't be surprised if Heavy is in the description.

Will Sir Gino be pulled perhaps?
 
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Lobos said:
Meant to ease off by midnight and then just light rain and breezy there on in until racing. It'll be on but won't be surprised if Heavy is in the description.

Will Sir Gino be pulled perhaps?
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What makes you think that, He won on heavy in France didn't he ?
 
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EnvoiAlien said:
What makes you think that, He won on heavy in France didn't he ?
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But its always Heavy ground in France isn't it ? Doesn't mean to say he enjoys it. Plus we know Nicky is notorious in pulling them on deep ground. Hope I'm wrong but would not be surprised in the slightest. We also know he's one of the best getting them fit at home especially where the CH is concerned. I wouldn't be worried as a CH backer at all.
 
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I was thinking the same but with 6 and a half weeks to the festival it’s plenty time to recover etc and get going again imo, but my opinion will more than likely differ from top NH trainers these days :ROFLMAO:

Agree with lobos could definitely see Nicky pulling sir Gino if it seems heavy. Probably see how the first race is on Saturday before deciding.
 
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