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2026 Novice Hurdlers

Hoping sortudo gets declared for lawlors tomorrow and saint baco is kept for Moscow flyer
 
I was v impressed with El Cairos run last week, he looks a very quick animal. However, I do have some doubts as to whether the Supreme will be his type of race. Last week he kicked off a slow pace and showed an impressive change of gear but the Supreme is more often than not run at a fast pace and often suits more stamina laden individuals. I watched his champion bumper run from last year and, while I know you have to make allowances for Maxwell, he was hardly devouring the hill at the end (the pack close on him on the latter part of the hill). Also, at Punchestown he sauntered past Baron Noir but then hung badly left when asked to quicken although again you have to wonder how much was down to Maxwell (he did also drift quite markedly left at Leopardstown too before falling though some of that may have been by design). I saw him at the Maxwell dispersal sale and there is not a lot of him and I fear a strongly run Supreme, especially if the ground is on the softer side, drawing his finish out of him. I doubt there is a quicker horse than him in the line up and if the Supreme was at Aintree then I'd have no doubts but this is quite a big niggle for me - especially given the current price.
 
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I've actually just rewatched the race back. Lovely camera angle at Leopardstown, but I always think it makes horses look like they're quickening up much faster than they actually are if that makes sense. Wouldn't be rushing to back him at 5/1 at this stage.

Watching the race back, I was much more impressed with how Talk the Talk travelled. Had to switch from behind Le Divin Enfant and still picked the winner up before the last. He was the most impressive in the 2m division in Ireland for me over Christmas.

Wouldn't give up on LDE either, I actually thought he hurdled well and travelled nicely. The drift told the full story, and I suspect he had an issue which is why he weakened out of it, but he could still be a nice one going forward, most likely up in trip.
 
Prestbury said:
I was v impressed with El Cairos run last week, he looks a very quick animal. However, I do have some doubts as to whether the Supreme will be his type of race. Last week he kicked off a slow pace and showed an impressive change of gear but the Supreme is more often than not run at a fast pace and often suits more stamina laden individuals. I watched his champion bumper run from last year and, while I know you have to make allowances for Maxwell, he was hardly devouring the hill at the end (the pack close on him on the latter part of the hill). Also, at Punchestown he sauntered past Baron Noir but then hung badly left when asked to quicken although again you have to wonder how much was down to Maxwell (he did also drift quite markedly left at Leopardstown too before falling though some of that may have been by design). I saw him at the Maxwell dispersal sale and there is not a lot of him and I fear a strongly run Supreme, especially if the ground is on the softer side, drawing his finish out of him. I doubt there is a quicker horse than him in the line up and if the Supreme was at Aintree then I'd have no doubts but this is quite a big niggle for me - especially given the current price.
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I thought it was a reasonably quick pace. He quickened off. They seemed to go a fair old gallop and the time of the race to 4 out was quicker than the 4yo maiden and juvenile hurdle on the same card, despite carrying more weight (13lbs more than the juveniles). Granted the pace dropped a bit then, no doubt due to the early gallop, but it still seemed competitive.

The pace will no doubt be a lot stronger in the Supreme though, and he’s unlikely to be tested against better opposition beforehand with Gordon saying he’ll only take in another maiden between now and then.

I agree re the price. 5/1 about a horse yet to complete a hurdle race is very short.
 
If he only runs in a maiden before the Supreme, 5/1 currently is very short too. If he won a maiden, even impressively, you'll be looking at 3/1 lowest price really and it'll likely be 4/1 the field on the day if he's the fav. Definitely a swerve at these prices.
 
Ellisgittings said:
If he only runs in a maiden before the Supreme, 5/1 currently is very short too. If he won a maiden, even impressively, you'll be looking at 3/1 lowest price really and it'll likely be 4/1 the field on the day if he's the fav. Definitely a swerve at these prices.
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Yeah he’s one that if you are on at bigger prices you would be very happy. Could have got 11 straight after, but did not last long!!
The Supreme this year looks like it could be high on quality and one that could throw up some good ones for the future.
 
Part of the reason El Cairos is as short as he is is because he ran the same day / weekend / couple of days as many others towards the top of the Supreme market did, and the rest ran disappointingly. Maybe an over reaction on the day...

But it's a race with a surprisingly poor look now compared to the potential before then.
 
Little word on Doctor Du Mesnil since his defeat. I imagine they were disappointed to be beat into 2nd after the fall of El Cairos, however, it could be Ballyburn all over again. A defeat first time out then a step up in trip next time out where he bolts up and suddenly that 20/1 is single figures again.

I also rewatched the Future Champions where Le Divin Enfant disappointed, and whilst there is no forgiving him, I do think Love Me Tender stayed on well at the end. Willie has repeatedly said he'll probably go out in trip then sticks him in two 2m races, when I say Willie, I obviously mean JP and his bent bunch!

50/1 is a big overaction for a staying on 3rd in G1, IMO.
 
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Both declared for Willie in the Lawlors. Now we wait to see who Townend picks.
 
Exar Essay said:
Both declared for Willie in the Lawlors. Now we wait to see who Townend picks.
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Surprises me. On visuals on debut I'm expecting him to be on Sortudo. That said, the Saint Baco form has worked out better.

Leaves Davy Crockett to win the Moscow Flyer then, unless one of them is pulled pre-race.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Surprises me. On visuals in debut I'm expecting him to be on Sortudo.

Leaves Davy Crockett to win the Moscow Flyer then!
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Yes, perhaps. Not sure what stage he’s at? I wonder if Paul would have a ride too. Given what’s been out so far, you’d imagine Paul would want a feel of as many as possible.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Little word on Doctor Du Mesnil since his defeat. I imagine they were disappointed to be beat into 2nd after the fall of El Cairos, however, it could be Ballyburn all over again. A defeat first time out then a step up in trip next time out where he bolts up and suddenly that 20/1 is single figures again.

I also rewatched the Future Champions where Le Divin Enfant disappointed, and whilst there is no forgiving him, I do think Love Me Tender stayed on well at the end. Willie has repeatedly said he'll probably go out in trip then sticks him in two 2m races, when I say Willie, I obviously mean JP and his bent bunch!

50/1 is a big overaction for a staying on 3rd in G1, IMO.
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I think difference here is that we dont know what el cairos would have won by so dont know how much the other two were off him. if el cairos streaks in we aren't having that ballyburn conversation cause we know they two behind aren't at his level yet where as firefox/ballyburn were clearly two best in their race.
 
fatherjohn said:
I think difference here is that we dont know what el cairos would have won by so dont know how much the other two were off him. if el cairos streaks in we aren't having that ballyburn conversation cause we know they two behind aren't at his level yet where as firefox/ballyburn were clearly two best in their race.
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Only in hindsight do we know the levels of Firefox and Ballyburn. Prior to that their bumper performances were probably on a par or close to what both DDM & El Cairos had done too.

Let's not forget, Firefox had lost a 2m4f maiden hurdle before they decided to go down the bumper route with him.

El Cairos was visually looking like he was going to piss in, and given the way the eventual winner and and DDM didn't pull a fair way clear of the 4th, I'm of the belief El Cairos puts lengths between them and himself.
 
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