It always amazes me although it shouldn't do, how much of us punters talk from our pocket or at least don't employ real critical thinking.
We've been here before with Annie Power, Honeysuckle, Apples Jade, Brighterdaysahead.
Now Lossiemouth.
In almost all cases the horses have gone for champion when they've shown to be the best in Ireland over that trip during the season.
It has gone tits up on occasions and normally when I've second guessed the popular school of thought, as I stood to win a fair chunk had Brighterdaysahed or Apples Jade won.
Although I had a lovely day in the sun when Annie won, and enjoyed very much laughing in the faces of all the - she wont' be quick enough over 2 miles merchants
- same fucking bellends were The New One followers also, so they were getting pretty fed up - "He would have won if this or if fucking that" My fucking arse he would, the Fly was a machine.
I was also on the wrong end of Honeysuckle for the most part having had one of my biggest bets antepost on her for the mares Novice hurdle the year she missed the festival.
Only when they've clearly shown weakness during a season have they opted for the Mares.
Added to that there have been other factors at play, like superstar horses in other stables and horses within the same yard that have a very good chance also.
Honeysuckle was beaten twice in the season she reverted and Constitution Hill looked unbeatable (as it proved).
Now don't get me wrong, from a sporting point of view and her going for her third Champion I was against the decision at the time, but they were probably correct to go that way as it proved.
Then Lossie, in the first year - it was the "2 year plan"
and she would only have been 5 going into it, with the stable also having the 2/5 favourite for the Champion in State Man.
Last season was more complicated as we had the defeat over 2 miles against Constitution Hill with the trainer blaming himself for not having her sharp enough after a jog around Naas against Teahupoo. And it was probably no disgrace losing to Con Hill around Kempton.
Then she fell when upsides State Man in the Irish Champion.
So going in she had suffered two defeats in different circumstances and was off the back of a fall and also had Constitution Hill to beat, who was 2/2 for the season. And Brighterdaysahead, who had looked like a machine at xmas and had confirmed fairly early that she would go for the champion hurdle.
Then, even though I thought it was bullshit at the time, the yard said State Man was working really well. Townend had little reason to desert State Man having been a great servant for a couple of years and had only one really bad run.
So the decision in the end was not a major surprise, it was more of a disappointment from a sporting context as was discussed in detail on here.
- But clearly the Mares without Brighterdaysahead was the right option considering they thought they had State Man back to his best.
The talk of her being better at 2 and a half vs 2 miles has some truth to it as depending on how the races are run and at which type of track and which type of ground then I'm sure some other horses may be closer to her than they would be if she had her optimum conditions.
But Cheltenham over 2 miles on softish ground - I'd say there is no other horse in training that would have an advantage over her (based on what we've seen), no matter how the race is run. Except for a prime Constitution Hill.
Sir Gino has the potential though, I can see that for sure.
If anyone thinks that if the race were next week that Lossiemouth would run in the mares, then they are off their tits.
Obviously between now and the race anything can happen.
Finally, some sense 
