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2026 Novice Hurdlers

JH7 said:
It’s a £50 acca for 3.5k, cash out shirt betting the 4 winners over Xmas is £36
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You surely have to let that run then I think. I dont think he'll be going close, but he was a big drifter on the day so at least there's a possibility something wasn't right, and they think he prefers different ground or he didn't work great or something. Every possibility there's still no standout in the supreme by March too and he goes over with an outside chance.
 
yeah - might be best hanging fire on that until another entry at least.
 
Turners backer. I thought NDTE did that very nicely after the last. Put the race to bed in a few strides and then eased off. Nothing near that level yet. Turners all the way for me and my pocket.
 
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JH7 said:
Could I ask for people’s opinion on Le Divin Entant, I rather foolishly added that to win the supreme with an accumulator where all the Xmas horses have won. Are we of the opinion it has no chance in the Supreme now and what were your thoughts on its run over Xmas
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I've cashed my bets out, personally.
 
I'm not in a very forgiving mood this season so gone are Le Divin Enfant & Act Of Innocence, as well as Leader D'allier (stupidly FOMO'd in on him) for me.

El Cairos and Old Park Star deserve their places at the head of the market for me, despite El Cairos not completing, he looked a fair tool!

Was keen on Mydaddypaddy but I'm not buying the lack of hurdles excuse, he found zilch when it mattered! Surprised he's not a 20/1+ poke now.

Skylight Hustle was possibly fortunate but can't have Talk The Talk, as I don't think the race was up to much personally, another reason why I ditched Le Divin Enfant. Can't be losing to that field, that said, fully expecting Love Me Tender to go out in trip now which is the correct decision for me.

If I had to back one now after what we've seen I'd chance El Cairos, in belief he's just the class act!
 
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Great analysis imo, Love Me Tender has to go out in trip & El Cairos would've been a very authorative winner.

I'm on the fence about giving AOI some leeway for today, did the donkeywork and possibly went for home too soon, also giving 20lbs to the Nicholls horse could turn out to be something no horse could do, next run for both could teach us plenty more but time is getting short so maybe being ruthless is the right way to go and I should just cut AOI off now.
 
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JH7 said:
It’s a £50 acca for 3.5k, cash out shirt betting the 4 winners over Xmas is £36
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I'd definitely hang on until perhaps DRF entries? He looked brilliant on debut and just didn't perform this week. Maybe Willie undercooked a few If you are prepared to lose 50 then why take 36?
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I'm not in a very forgiving mood this season so gone are Le Divin Enfant & Act Of Innocence, as well as Leader D'allier (stupidly FOMO'd in on him) for me.

El Cairos and Old Park Star deserve their places at the head of the market for me, despite El Cairos not completing, he looked a fair tool!

Was keen on Mydaddypaddy but I'm not buying the lack of hurdles excuse, he found zilch when it mattered! Surprised he's not a 20/1+ poke now.

Skylight Hustle was possibly fortunate but can't have Talk The Talk, as I don't think the race was up to much personally, another reason why I ditched Le Divin Enfant. Can't be losing to that field, that said, fully expecting Love Me Tender to go out in trip now which is the correct decision for me.

If I had to back one now after what we've seen I'd chance El Cairos, in belief he's just the class act!
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El Cairos looks nice but 5s is short. He's also quite small, looked a bit of a pocket rocket. Nothing major, but worth noting in case some others can improve past him.
 
Ellisgittings said:
El Cairos looks nice but 5s is short. He's also quite small, looked a bit of a pocket rocket. Nothing major, but worth noting in case some others can improve past him.
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Yeah, I noticed how small he looked, his engine on the other hand, that didn't look so small!
 
Ellisgittings said:
El Cairos looks nice but 5s is short. He's also quite small, looked a bit of a pocket rocket. Nothing major, but worth noting in case some others can improve past him.
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It's a bit of a silly price i think because it's priced as if he didn't fall after the last and powered away to open the gap further, but he didn't do that. For all we know when jack got serious on him the gap might not have opened much further at all. The hanging left under pressure could very well have been all down to maxwell last season, but i'd still like to have seen Jack get serious on him and give him a few taps to confirm he finds off the bridle.
 
Ellisgittings said:
El Cairos looks nice but 5s is short. He's also quite small, looked a bit of a pocket rocket. Nothing major, but worth noting in case some others can improve past him.
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Does his size really matter at all when factoring his chances in the Supreme?

If anything I’d prefer a smaller more filled out frame for the short term when plenty look like they’re on the long finger for a fence to be seen at their best.

Aware I’m teeing up an open goal “That’s what she said” esque gif gift here
 
SeanRock said:
Does his size really matter at all when factoring his chances in the Supreme?

If anything I’d prefer a smaller more filled out frame for the short term when plenty look like they’re on the long finger for a fence to be seen at their best.

Aware I’m teeing up an open goal “That’s what she said” esque gif gift here
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It isn't just in reference to some horses being big chasing types - smaller horses generally fill their frame quicker so reach their full physical potential faster, even during a season. So he might have been much fitter than his rivals, might be more 'ready' as he's physically hit his frame, whereas others could do with filling out a little bit. Smaller types tend to find less improvement during the season in my opinion.

Obviously for a supreme though his size probably won't be a major concern as others don't have long to catch up! More an observation from my end
 

Talk The Talk 148p from 139p (Timeform)​

Talk The Talk had quickened up well to take the lead before coming down at the final flight in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle and he has been awarded the highest rating in what is admittedly still a wide-open division.

His departure left the race at the mercy of Skylight Hustle (146p from 134p) who came home five lengths clear of Carrigmoornaspruce to build on the positive impression he had created when a wide-margin winner of a maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse.

There was also a significant novice hurdle at Aintree the previous afternoon, with Idaho Sun (140 from 129p) springing a surprise to beat Mydaddypaddy(139p from 140p) in the Grade 1 Formby. Idaho Sun, a talented bumper performer and winner of his first two starts over hurdles, looked vulnerable when Mydaddypaddy loomed up a couple of furlongs out, but he found plenty for pressure to score by three and a quarter lengths and inflict a first defeat on the favourite.

Mydaddypaddy, who had created a big impression in winning a bumper and a couple of races over hurdles, probably wasn't suited by the removal of the flights in the straight which put more emphasis on galloping and placed less importance on jumping, which along with speed seems one of his big assets. He could still do better under more favourable circumstances.
 
Sober Glory to try and get his season back on track at Exeter on NYD over 2m.
 
Very interesting re Talk The Talk Timeform Rating.
 
No Drama This End straight to Festival. He'll be entered for both Turners and Albert and it'll be his last run over Hurdles before going chasing next season.
 
Lobos said:
Very interesting re Talk The Talk Timeform Rating.
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….didn’t notice he was 2nd to Kadastral in that valuable Newbury bumper before moving to JOB. He said this in his latest stable tour;

‘He has been very good in winning both his starts over hurdles and we supplemented him for the Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown on Saturday. It’s a big step up in class for him, but we want to find out where we are with him and that’s the way to do it. Two miles looks a good trip for him at the minute.’

A best 14-1for Supreme.
 
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No Drama This End just feels like a Bravemansgame 2.0. Expecting him to go turners and be leading before 2 out, then a couple Irish horses will go sailing by him like he's standing still.
 
Brooksie said:
No Drama This End just feels like a Bravemansgame 2.0. Expecting him to go turners and be leading before 2 out, then a couple Irish horses will go sailing by him like he's standing still.
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I really can't believe his price, although I'm very happy about it.

I dont know why people are impressed by him beating 129 rated klimt Madrik by a length. I'm hearing about how he'll be a great chaser in time etc, but that's nothing to do with winning the turners. He's ran very low 130s on his third start over hurdles.

People will say he could gave won a lot further..... could he? Cobden didn't get serious, but he wasn't exactly hard on the bridle either looking as though he could take off if he wanted to. I'd say if he went for the whip he could have won 2-3 lengths maybe.
 
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