Aintree 2025 Day 1

[YoungHustler]

I'm laughing out loud at nobody giving Gidleigh a chance

I give him a massive chance and he would be my bet if I were to have one in that race. Will leave the race alone and enjoy watching as think the top 4 all have good chances.

Only bet on day 1 for me will be Wendrock EW with Betfred 4 places 9/1. He got hampered at a crucial stage lto and finished well so this slightly longer trip will help imo.

Interesting thoughts from pro punter Mark Hklder regarding the need to stay over hurdles.

'Take the two-mile hurdle races at Aintree, for example. There are two different starting points, meaning races are either run over two miles and 103 yards or two miles and 209 yards. The shorter trip takes around four minutes, while the longer version adds around ten seconds. Compare that to Cheltenham, where on the Old course races over the same distance take around 3min 55sec on good to soft ground and on the New course they take closer to 4min 5sec. So, time-wise, Cheltenham is less of a test.

Ultimately, race pace is all about perception. On so-called staying tracks, races are often run at a slower tempo than on supposedly sharper, easier courses. Ironically, this can mean more stamina is required on tracks perceived to be less of a test.'
​

 

[AaronLad]

It's best not to be so emotional about these things.

Of course he's got a chance. He's a general 9/2 shot.

But he should be odds on :beguiled:
iep and croke park got pumped by ballyburn.
ballyburn got pumped at cheltenham.

Gidleigh park is on another level.

 

[AaronLad]

I give him a massive chance and he would be my bet if I were to have one in that race. Will leave the race alone and enjoy watching as think the top 4 all have good chances.

Only bet on day 1 for me will be Wendrock EW with Betfred 4 places 9/1. He got hampered at a crucial stage lto and finished well so this slightly longer trip will help imo.

Interesting thoughts from pro punter Mark Hklder regarding the need to stay over hurdles.

'Take the two-mile hurdle races at Aintree, for example. There are two different starting points, meaning races are either run over two miles and 103 yards or two miles and 209 yards. The shorter trip takes around four minutes, while the longer version adds around ten seconds. Compare that to Cheltenham, where on the Old course races over the same distance take around 3min 55sec on good to soft ground and on the New course they take closer to 4min 5sec. So, time-wise, Cheltenham is less of a test.

Ultimately, race pace is all about perception. On so-called staying tracks, races are often run at a slower tempo than on supposedly sharper, easier courses. Ironically, this can mean more stamina is required on tracks perceived to be less of a test.'
​

Interesting.

Not sure I'd completely agree with what he says but can understand.

For example running uphill for 100m is a lot more demanding than running on the flat for 100m.
But downhill is easier than a flat 100m. Obvious I know

So if you have more downhill sections than uphill it would be quicker for the most part but it's the uphill parts when you're knackered that really sort the proper ones out.

 

[Quevega]

Interesting.

Not sure I'd completely agree with what he says but can understand.

For example running uphill for 100m is a lot more demanding than running on the flat for 100m.
But downhill is easier than a flat 100m. Obvious I know

So if you have more downhill sections than uphill it would be quicker for the most part but it's the uphill parts when you're knackered that really sort the proper ones out.

The timings he has given are fact though, and the time taken to complete any course on average with a large sample size is surely an accurate reflection of the overall test, no matter how the uphill and downhill sections, or gradients compare.

I posted something on the forum a couple of years ago on the same subject and most ignored it, as you still get trainers like Henderson saying that aintree is a sharper, quicker "flat" track, than Cheltenham. And most punters still hang on trainers words and them trotting out tired old tropes, without any nuance.

It's not and that's a fact.

It might be flatter overall, and the turns more sharper, but to run the course takes longer so this means there is likely more of a rise in the ground than the opposite. Or Cheltenham's downhill sections help that make it quicker overall. Probably a bit of both.

The only thing I would concede about horses handling Aintree is maybe the sharper left handed bends at both ends of the mildmay course, and maybe being nippy and agile around those helps some more nimble types, but even then the straight is plenty long enough and will suit strong gallopers/travellers.

The issue as always is down to the jockey fractions (aside from the obvious horse ability), if they judge the fractions from the front end, on a quick/nimble horse right and get to the last left hand bend before the straight, then they have a head start on the rest and if they've saved enough and not gone too hard then they can kick on, and be hard to peg back, but you'll also see travelly types looming up sometimes and also gallopers off the bridle wearing the front runners down up the straight

I don't favour any types here, as there is no consistent types really, and is more often down to the pace of the race, much like any other track really.

Strong Leader is a good example IMO, he looks slow on most tracks but manages to run well here.
Ahoy Senor another.

 

[Bluefox21]

….backing Peter Bowen’s (and Micky Bowen) horses blind at Aintree has proved me well over many years but Queen Kate’s debut Bumper win at Doncaster last month is worth a watch. In behind a wall of horses with nowhere to go entering the final furlong, she was switched wide and still won with a bit in hand.

Firms tend not to take chances with Bowen at Aintree but I’ll be waiting patiently for Queen Kate to be priced up now she’s confirmed.

at 50s I'll join you on that. Horses in behind her look fairly average but you can only beat what's in front of you!

 

[Bluefox21]

I'm amazed Embassy Gardens is the price he is - Townend alone should mean shorter than Gaelic Warrior

 

[Eggs]

at 50s I'll join you on that. Horses in behind her look fairly average but you can only beat what's in front of you!

….must check if she’s his only runner at the meeting.

 

[Eggs]

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing...for-grand-national-festival-at-aintree/224674

 

[Zachx02]

Looking at the bowl, how is Djelo 25/1 and Grey dawning 2/1? Both best RPRs being 168. Id have backed Gary if Paul was on but I'm swerving with the 7 lb penalty on him.

 

[Eggs]

….C Hill to win by over 3.5L 5/2 Lads.

 

[AaronLad]

The timings he has given are fact though, and the time taken to complete any course on average with a large sample size is surely an accurate reflection of the overall test, no matter how the uphill and downhill sections, or gradients compare.

I posted something on the forum a couple of years ago on the same subject and most ignored it, as you still get trainers like Henderson saying that aintree is a sharper, quicker "flat" track, than Cheltenham. And most punters still hang on trainers words and them trotting out tired old tropes, without any nuance.

It's not and that's a fact.

It might be flatter overall, and the turns more sharper, but to run the course takes longer so this means there is likely more of a rise in the ground than the opposite. Or Cheltenham's downhill sections help that make it quicker overall. Probably a bit of both.

The only thing I would concede about horses handling Aintree is maybe the sharper left handed bends at both ends of the mildmay course, and maybe being nippy and agile around those helps some more nimble types, but even then the straight is plenty long enough and will suit strong gallopers/travellers.

The issue as always is down to the jockey fractions (aside from the obvious horse ability), if they judge the fractions from the front end, on a quick/nimble horse right and get to the last left hand bend before the straight, then they have a head start on the rest and if they've saved enough and not gone too hard then they can kick on, and be hard to peg back, but you'll also see travelly types looming up sometimes and also gallopers off the bridle wearing the front runners down up the straight

I don't favour any types here, as there is no consistent types really, and is more often down to the pace of the race, much like any other track really.

Strong Leader is a good example IMO, he looks slow on most tracks but manages to run well here.
Ahoy Senor another.

Really good post q.

I agree about the trainers, at the end of the day theirs is just an opinion like any of us, just a little more informed, possibly.

 

[Quevega]

Really good post q.

I agree about the trainers, at the end of the day theirs is just an opinion like any of us, just a little more informed, possibly.

I’m sure trainers have the knowledge and could talk for a while on course configurations but the snippets in interviews don’t allow for them to expand. So in the example given of his comments on lulamba it’s easy to see why a lot of people would assume certain things when theirs a lot more to it.

If you asked most punters not a lot would guess that a 2 mile hurdle at Cheltenham is quicker than aintree on the clock. And it’s due to snippets like this getting repeated over the years.

Just one of racing’s many urban myths

 

[AaronLad]

Puturhandstogether has been backed like defeat is out of the question in the grade 1 juvenile hurdle.
Murcia reopposes him here 13lbs better off for a 9 length defeat.
Considering his manner of victory in the boodles its easy to see why he's been backed, but i have a feeling murcia can get alot closer than what the bookmakers odds are suggesting.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Puturhandstogether has been backed like defeat is out of the question in the grade 1 juvenile hurdle.
Murcia reopposes him here 13lbs better off for a 9 length defeat.
Considering his manner of victory in the boodles its easy to see why he's been backed, but i have a feeling murcia can get alot closer than what the bookmakers odds are suggesting.

Yep, I agree.

Her and Naturally Nimble are the two I've backed against the field.

 

[AaronLad]

Yep, I agree.

Her and Naturally Nimble are the two I've backed against the field.

So does Ben linfoot from sporting life, he's put her up half hour ago.

 

[Eggs]

So does Ben linfoot from sporting life, he's put her up half hour ago.

…and Ruby Walsh.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Slightly dismayed about my two first day bets tbh

Impaire has first time cheekpieces on which is imo a large red flag. But maybe they will work like they did on stateman.

Plus Paul mystifyingly choosing to ride embassy gardens over gaelic

not ideal

 

[robith]

I'm trying to remember - I recall reading there's a big running bias on the two tracks. I think it was that the chase course favours front runners and the hurdle one those off the pace? Is that correct?

 

[SeanRock]

3 bets tomorrow…

Main fancy is much the same as the rest of the shrood judges on here in Impaire Et Passe in the first antepost at 11/2

Lossie to KO the punch drunk CH

Blue Betty in the Mares Bumper

 

[Deleted member 4957]

They're backing the JOB horse like defeat is out of the question in the juvenile race but I think Wendrock carries much more value.
Kept out the back and racing wide throughout the Fred Winter like he was a non trier, then switched inside after 2 out and flew up the hill beaten 7.5l, now 6lb better off with the winner.
If ridden more prominently he finishes much closer to the fav for me and with some 11/1 around he represents value.
Not convinced it's a race to get too deep in though...