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2017 Ultima Handicap
- Thread starter Jonnymac05
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BigChaang
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Help !!, Would anyone be able to give me some pointers here , trying to make a shortlist, and using my trends /stats list . says - weight 11-06 or less ,. and O R 131 - 147 . but the 147 rating falls on horses at 10-11 , so do i leave out anything above 10-11 or what ?? . any advice gratefully recieved..
Istabraq
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Use ratings not weight, compressed handicaps will change the weight trends, some handicaps carry 4-5lb top to bottom differences so bottom weights carry an 'artficially' high weight
mayo
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Conditions
Grade 3, £105,000 Total Prize Fund. Cheltenham, 2.50pm, Tuesday, March 14, three miles and a furlong. For fiveyear-olds & upwards. Penalties: after February 26, a winner of a chase 5lb. No penalty to increase a horse’s weight above 11st 12lb. Entries closed February 21 (102 entries, 1 nq), entries released February 23, weights revealed March 1. Six-day confirmation stage March 9, final declaration stage 10.00am, March 14. Maximum field of 24.
Its a proper handicap and I don't think this will be that compressed. The horses into 90s got a run last year and they didn't even have max fields for this relatively recently. Its the only one left like that.
Its hard to know top weight at this stage. Noble Endeavour could do with some of those above running imo. This will cut up. There is another page after OVs list and some of those will get a run imo.
Grade 3, £105,000 Total Prize Fund. Cheltenham, 2.50pm, Tuesday, March 14, three miles and a furlong. For fiveyear-olds & upwards. Penalties: after February 26, a winner of a chase 5lb. No penalty to increase a horse’s weight above 11st 12lb. Entries closed February 21 (102 entries, 1 nq), entries released February 23, weights revealed March 1. Six-day confirmation stage March 9, final declaration stage 10.00am, March 14. Maximum field of 24.
Its a proper handicap and I don't think this will be that compressed. The horses into 90s got a run last year and they didn't even have max fields for this relatively recently. Its the only one left like that.
Its hard to know top weight at this stage. Noble Endeavour could do with some of those above running imo. This will cut up. There is another page after OVs list and some of those will get a run imo.
jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Matt Tombs on Twitter with a good point on Noble Endeavour
"think that would be 6lb higher than any winner over conventional fences this century"
One on my shortlist but I do worry about what runs above him (like mayo says) on closer look though
Tenor Nivernais - straight to National??
The Last Samurai - Straight to National??
Taquin du Seuil - ??
Lord Scoundrel - ??
Otago Trail - No
Saphi Du Rheu - No (Gold Cup)
UTPT - Likely
Road to Riches - No (Gold Cup / Ryanair)
Unless I'm mistaken on any possible targets?
GE could run Lord Scoundrel to help his chances slightly?
"think that would be 6lb higher than any winner over conventional fences this century"
One on my shortlist but I do worry about what runs above him (like mayo says) on closer look though
Tenor Nivernais - straight to National??
The Last Samurai - Straight to National??
Taquin du Seuil - ??
Lord Scoundrel - ??
Otago Trail - No
Saphi Du Rheu - No (Gold Cup)
UTPT - Likely
Road to Riches - No (Gold Cup / Ryanair)
Unless I'm mistaken on any possible targets?
GE could run Lord Scoundrel to help his chances slightly?
ComplyOrDie
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Even so, that would leave Noble Endeavour on 11-10 if Lord Scoundrel runs and is top weighted.
Admittedly the trends seem to be turning, possibly with the quality of horses that are now turning up to this race as the last 3 winners have all carried 11-03 or more, prior to that you'd have to go back to 1998 to find a horse that achieved that, that said, it was indeed the 1998 race the last time a horse carried such a big weight (11-10) to victory in this, and further back you'd need to go to the 1960's to find the next previous winner carrying a huge burden.
I wouldn't be worried about a horse carrying 11-0+ now with the way the more recent races have gone, but I certainly wouldn't want to be carrying anywhere near the top end of the weights, personally I'll probably cap it at 11-07 in search of the winner, so if Taquin Du Seuil runs NE will still be within the possibles, anything higher and I feel i'd be asking for trouble.
Leman14
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What about Holywell??
This seasons form looks average to poor at best BUT he has an EXCELLENT record at Cheltenham (seem to come to life at the Fez) and is rated a STONE lower than last year (when finishing 2nd) - and is still only 10 yrs old.
This seasons form looks average to poor at best BUT he has an EXCELLENT record at Cheltenham (seem to come to life at the Fez) and is rated a STONE lower than last year (when finishing 2nd) - and is still only 10 yrs old.
ComplyOrDie
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10 year olds are certainly not without a chance in this race, and you're right his Cheltenham record it's extremely good, from 4 runs it reads 1-1-4-2 and that 4th place was behind Coneygree in the Gold Cup, opposition he won't even get close to having to compete with in this race.
You would be purely taking his well being on trust and that he needs Cheltenham and that this is his time of the year, because his form this season has been woeful.
Being Irish bred is a big positive too, think horses bred in Ireland have won 10 of the last 11 runnings.
Istabraq
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Gold Cup calibre 2/3 years ago, didn't he finish 4th when the rain came and went against him ?
He's another who shouldn't run between October and February, he needs quick ground and some sun on his back, so yes he would have a real chance.
And from a pure handicapping perspective he would have a great shout (though not a stone better off than last year) but, 10yo win few races here and I can only think of the Kim Muir and Foxhunters where older horses have a real chance, there will be unexposed types who are hiding their true ability in this who for win purposes will appeal more...
Faugheen_Machine
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Holywell isn't a stone better off than last year, far from it, but I do agree that he should be on the shortlist.
Leman14
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Novicey error on my part... as mentioned in my first post.. I'm still relatively new to this... (especially understanding handicaps etc...)
How do I find out what his rating was last year?
(I just looked at the fact that he is 10st 12lbs this year and 11st 12lbs last year - but I guess that it is the rating that is all important)
My bad... :sorrow:
Istabraq
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Yes Leman that's right, and if topweights pull out the weights go up foe every horse accordingly.
Go to Sky Sports website (I'm sure other sites do the job) then to racing profiles, enter the horses name and look at their history, you'll see the rating against the horse each time he ran.
Go to Sky Sports website (I'm sure other sites do the job) then to racing profiles, enter the horses name and look at their history, you'll see the rating against the horse each time he ran.
Faugheen_Machine
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Just look back at his form on racing post or a similar site Leman. His official rating for each race will be posted on there.
I think you are onto one though. Holywell and UTPT were well clear of third last season and turning in you'd have thought Holywell would run away from UTPT. He is handicapped to run well and only ever shows his best in the spring.
I think you are onto one though. Holywell and UTPT were well clear of third last season and turning in you'd have thought Holywell would run away from UTPT. He is handicapped to run well and only ever shows his best in the spring.
Faugheen_Machine
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ryanh97
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I'm a big Holywell fan. I'm a relative newbie compared to a lot of you guys and this year will only be my 3rd festival following horse racing (my knowledge and passion has grew massively since a couple of months before last years festival). Holywell was my first ever Cheltenham winner back in 2014 when he won the handicap so I have a soft spot for him. Ive backed him most times since but hes slipped under my radar this year. Glad to see some support - will be one to back on the day for me
jono
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Been taking a look at this race tonight. Looks like i'm settled on the following 6 horses (just the 6 
). The market has hardly missed any of these either though and they all find their way around the top of the market however it's tended to be a good judge - 5th fav UTPT won last year, 2nd fav The Druids Nephew in 2015 and 3rd fav Holywell in 2014. It's also a race where previous runners of the race have done well when returning.
Noble Endeavour - 154 - 12/1
Tipped up by both Gordon Elliott and Kevin Blake yesterday and has obvious claims and plenty of positives, many been made already on here so I won't repeat. Although a mark of 154 may look a little steep you'd have to take the fact Elliott is happy with his rating as a positive and he still looks a progressive horse with more to come. Likely Davy Russell will ride (with Mall Dini going Kim Muir). The ratings of the placed horses has been creeping up year on year and last year Holywell came second off 153 and Morning Assembly (with Davy onboard) came 4th off 150 so a mark in the 150's doesn't rule him out. Could ideally do with a few of the horses higher up running to stop him carrying all but top weight.
Singlefarmpayment - 142 - 12/1
Has a wealth of options but his trainer recently stated "Is he well handicapped? “I would say so, definitely. Off 142 you’ve got to be taking the handicaps very seriously with him." A higher mark and he most likely would have gone down the RSA/4 mile route and I would have quite fancied him in either of those races too so he is of serious interest here. Course and distance winner and can handle both good and soft ground. Ran in the same prep race UTPT ran in (21F chase on trials day) which tends to be a good prep race. Brought down for no fault of his own and too far out to really say whether he would have been involved but he was travelling well at the time. BIG chance.
The Druids Nephew - 146 - 12/1 &&
Won this in 2016 and now back to the same mark this year and Mulholland sounds confident "He won the race off 146 two years ago and is back off 146. We think he’s every bit as good, if not better, and he’s in great form," After his 2015 win he was running a huge race in the Grand National before unseating. Hasn't looked the same horse after that but if you take the trainer's words that he is as good as ever than he has a massive chance. Also running well in that seasons Hennessy before an awful blunder cost him any chance. I'd like to see Aidan Coleman (rode him in the 2015 national) get the ride again on him here as I think he got a very good tune out of the horse that day. Mulholland has looked to target this race in the last 2 years and a win and 3rd place shows he knows what it takes to do well in this.
The Young Master - 150 - 20/1
Another Mulholland runner. Came 3rd in this race last year off 149. Off 150 this year and being a well beaten 9 lengths by Holywell and 16 lengths by the winner it;s not obvious why he should go better this year though he is better off at the weights with UTPT (but worse off with Holywell). Follows the same path as last year running in the Cleeve Hurdle (again a route that has worked for the trainer previously) and well beaten. I actually thought this may be his main shot at the race but sounds like TDN is his best shot now and if he is back to his best I can see why. Got outpaced in this last year and just couldn't quicken away with the leaders which would be the concern again. Did go on to win the bet365 at Sandown after though and if he can keep tabs on the leaders he may well be able to match his efforts of last year or better. He's also won at the course over 24.5F.
Another Hero - 136 - 25/1
Won his first 2 chases in his novice season, he went into the 2016 Irish Grand National. He fell at the 11th fence but went off a 12/1 shot under Barry Geraghty so was fairly well backed in the race. Ran in the Ascot race alongside Holywell and The Druids Nephew he was hampered by Go Conquer at the first and then took a while to get back into the race. Made really good ground coming to the last going down a couple of lengths. Hard to make out from the fog how he finished but could very well have got closer without that start. Then ran a great race in the SkyBet chase just getting pipped for 2nd behind Ziga Boy by Looking Well in the run in but he was giving LW 9lbs that day. In his only visit to the course in April 2016 he came second to Brother Brian so shows he can handle the course. Runs in the likes of the Irish National and SkyBet Chase show big handicap fields are nothing to fear either. Add in the Jonjo and JP connection and he could go close off a low weight if he gets in.
Holywell - 148 - 14/1
Impossible to totally discount the horse for his fantastic festival form of 1142. The 2015 run was off 163! If Jonjo can work his magic and get him firing again come March he has done very well to get him down to 148 as he came 2nd off 153 last year. I do have concerns though on how many times he can come good at this time of year and with age possibly starting to count against him he may finally come unstuck as much as you just have to ignore all his winter form. Still has very strong place claims though and if I think The Young Master has a chance in any way I simply cannot right him off.
Nothing too original or left field but it tends to pay concentrating mainly on the horses at the top of the market and in the 143+ range so always likely to be on most peoples shortlists.
). The market has hardly missed any of these either though and they all find their way around the top of the market however it's tended to be a good judge - 5th fav UTPT won last year, 2nd fav The Druids Nephew in 2015 and 3rd fav Holywell in 2014. It's also a race where previous runners of the race have done well when returning.Noble Endeavour - 154 - 12/1
Tipped up by both Gordon Elliott and Kevin Blake yesterday and has obvious claims and plenty of positives, many been made already on here so I won't repeat. Although a mark of 154 may look a little steep you'd have to take the fact Elliott is happy with his rating as a positive and he still looks a progressive horse with more to come. Likely Davy Russell will ride (with Mall Dini going Kim Muir). The ratings of the placed horses has been creeping up year on year and last year Holywell came second off 153 and Morning Assembly (with Davy onboard) came 4th off 150 so a mark in the 150's doesn't rule him out. Could ideally do with a few of the horses higher up running to stop him carrying all but top weight.
Singlefarmpayment - 142 - 12/1
Has a wealth of options but his trainer recently stated "Is he well handicapped? “I would say so, definitely. Off 142 you’ve got to be taking the handicaps very seriously with him." A higher mark and he most likely would have gone down the RSA/4 mile route and I would have quite fancied him in either of those races too so he is of serious interest here. Course and distance winner and can handle both good and soft ground. Ran in the same prep race UTPT ran in (21F chase on trials day) which tends to be a good prep race. Brought down for no fault of his own and too far out to really say whether he would have been involved but he was travelling well at the time. BIG chance.
The Druids Nephew - 146 - 12/1 &&
Won this in 2016 and now back to the same mark this year and Mulholland sounds confident "He won the race off 146 two years ago and is back off 146. We think he’s every bit as good, if not better, and he’s in great form," After his 2015 win he was running a huge race in the Grand National before unseating. Hasn't looked the same horse after that but if you take the trainer's words that he is as good as ever than he has a massive chance. Also running well in that seasons Hennessy before an awful blunder cost him any chance. I'd like to see Aidan Coleman (rode him in the 2015 national) get the ride again on him here as I think he got a very good tune out of the horse that day. Mulholland has looked to target this race in the last 2 years and a win and 3rd place shows he knows what it takes to do well in this.
The Young Master - 150 - 20/1
Another Mulholland runner. Came 3rd in this race last year off 149. Off 150 this year and being a well beaten 9 lengths by Holywell and 16 lengths by the winner it;s not obvious why he should go better this year though he is better off at the weights with UTPT (but worse off with Holywell). Follows the same path as last year running in the Cleeve Hurdle (again a route that has worked for the trainer previously) and well beaten. I actually thought this may be his main shot at the race but sounds like TDN is his best shot now and if he is back to his best I can see why. Got outpaced in this last year and just couldn't quicken away with the leaders which would be the concern again. Did go on to win the bet365 at Sandown after though and if he can keep tabs on the leaders he may well be able to match his efforts of last year or better. He's also won at the course over 24.5F.
Another Hero - 136 - 25/1
Won his first 2 chases in his novice season, he went into the 2016 Irish Grand National. He fell at the 11th fence but went off a 12/1 shot under Barry Geraghty so was fairly well backed in the race. Ran in the Ascot race alongside Holywell and The Druids Nephew he was hampered by Go Conquer at the first and then took a while to get back into the race. Made really good ground coming to the last going down a couple of lengths. Hard to make out from the fog how he finished but could very well have got closer without that start. Then ran a great race in the SkyBet chase just getting pipped for 2nd behind Ziga Boy by Looking Well in the run in but he was giving LW 9lbs that day. In his only visit to the course in April 2016 he came second to Brother Brian so shows he can handle the course. Runs in the likes of the Irish National and SkyBet Chase show big handicap fields are nothing to fear either. Add in the Jonjo and JP connection and he could go close off a low weight if he gets in.
Holywell - 148 - 14/1
Impossible to totally discount the horse for his fantastic festival form of 1142. The 2015 run was off 163! If Jonjo can work his magic and get him firing again come March he has done very well to get him down to 148 as he came 2nd off 153 last year. I do have concerns though on how many times he can come good at this time of year and with age possibly starting to count against him he may finally come unstuck as much as you just have to ignore all his winter form. Still has very strong place claims though and if I think The Young Master has a chance in any way I simply cannot right him off.
Nothing too original or left field but it tends to pay concentrating mainly on the horses at the top of the market and in the 143+ range so always likely to be on most peoples shortlists.
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