Afternoon Folks
Where I am at the moment, subject to slipping on any banana skins with tomorrows Final Decs;
I mentioned on my first post for the Day 1 Festival Yankee, that I was looking for some nice solid each way selections, not muggy each ways but also not too long odds.
Looking at the races to pick the four selections, then I have left the Supreme alone as I can’t get away from how impressive KDB
was at the DRF and think he will win. Also I have left the Champ Hurdle alone as I can’t see past the top two in the betting, now that BDA is confirmed coming here.
So the selections are as follows;
1) Arkle - Jango Baie @ 7/1 - each way 2 places - he wasn’t initially coming here until Sir Ginos injury, but is already rated 158 RPR after two chase runs, so has the potential IMO to progress well over 160 RPR. He was a slightly better hurdler than Majborough, winning the Tolworth (although may have benefitted from Farren Glory’s fall) as a novice and was an 8lbs better hurdler than Leau du Sud. Leau du Sud has won all 4 chases this term but only reached a RPR of 155. When watching Majborough DRF run then his jumping was slightly of concern, untidy at the 5th, put down at the 6th and stumbled on landing at the 8th, whereas watch Jango Baies jumping, which has been exceptional in both his races. Whilst he will be dwarfed by Majborough in the paddock, his jumping is what makes him the right selection to take on the favourite and will be running on well at the end of the race, having been campaigned so far over 2 1/2 miles. When looking at the horses he has been competing against in his chase runs such as Handstands (158 RPR) and Springwell Bay (158 RPR) then I think this is better form than beating Touch Me Not (151 RPR). He also fits the age profile, whereas Majborough doesn’t.
2) Ultima - Henry’s Friend - 10/1 each way 5 places - Alternate Naid say no more !
3) Fred Winter - Lady Vega Allen - 10/1 each way 4 places - appeared to be initially campaigned with the Triumph in mind with the Fred Winter becoming a consideration around the announcing of the weights time. In comparison with Murcia and Wendrock then she appears to have been given a chance by the handicapper. Only rated 2lbs behind Hello Neighbour by Timeform, with the latter well touted for the Triumph. Nearly got up to beat Hello Neighbour at the DRF with Bacchanalian well back, who went on to win his next two races and was supported for this race before being withdrawn. Won her French hurdle over 2m 1 1/2f so she clearly gets the trip well. Obviously this race has a fair few plots (Joseph) and there appear to have been some ‘nursing’ going on with lots of contenders, so picking who is best handicapped is virtually impossible. However if Lady Vega Allen runs her race, then I can’t see her beaten by three horses. As Willie said in an interview, he thought she was High Class, so that will do for me!
4) Nat Hunt Chase - Transmission - 5/1 - each way 4 places - laid out for the race with form around Cheltenham and weighted to dead heat with Haiti Couleurs, who beat him by just over 2 lengths at Cheltenham over 3m 2f earlier in the season. Then ran in the Cleeve hurdle to protect his chase rating (public schooling?) The fav for this race is priced more around his trainer than his form IMO and although Transmission may have ‘the Anchor’ riding him, then Patrick does have previous winning experience in this race when it was a graded race.
The win part of the Yankee pays £9035 with the place part paying around £183 (dependent upon whether 1/4 or 1/5 place odds)
Fingers crossed that this can get us off to a flying start and fill the War Chest for further skirmishes later in the week ! :cheerful:
nthego::indecisiveness:
