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Related Bets (ideas)

Can't Catch Me said:
Sorry wrong thread
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I dont think that'll happen imo, willie/ricci far too sporting for that, these races come along once in a generation, but that only happens if lossie is there, i'd be astounded if lossie didnt line up.
 
Birds Nest said:
I dont think that'll happen imo, willie/ricci far too sporting for that, these races come along once in a generation, but that only happens if lossie is there, i'd be astounded if lossie didnt line up.
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Hope you are right BN... be a CH for the ages if they all line up.
 
All very reminiscent of the last great clash we had:

A Henderson CH winner vs A Gordon mare vs a Willie mare

So who is Espoir D'Allen?
 
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Studfarm254 said:
Race is on the 1st day, it’ll be watered if need be, will be plenty of juice in the ground. Would be a bit concerned if it was on the Friday after a dry week but it isn’t lol. It’s Willie Mullins taking the Quevega route and I thought she was brilliant on reappearance giving weight. I think she’s 1 of the best price favourites of the week tbh. I’m on at much bigger prices but whoever is laying her currently at nearly 3/1 on the exchange clearly has a lot more money than sense
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I didn’t say the ground would be quick. I have been educated on here many times that Irish soft is much softer than British soft, so if that’s the case then even watered ground with plenty of juice will be quicker than anything she has run on in Ireland. Plus I gave three reasons and you’ve only responded to one which is absolutely fine. Ive not layed her I’ve just backed a few horses that I believe could do her for toe if the race turned tactical as I believe it might do . You are clearly a huge fan and I wish you good luck with your bet :biggrin-new:
 
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:welcoming:
Rooster Booster said:
I didn’t say the ground would be quick. I have been educated on here many times that Irish soft is much softer than British soft, so if that’s the case then even watered ground with plenty of juice will be quicker than anything she has run on in Ireland. Plus I gave three reasons and you’ve only responded to one which is absolutely fine. Ive not layed her I’ve just backed a few horses that I believe could do her for toe if the race turned tactical as I believe it might do . You are clearly a huge fan and I wish you good luck with your bet :biggrin-new:
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I don’t need luck as she’s clearly the best horse in the race, I just need to avoid bad luck! :welcoming:
 
Studfarm254 said:
:welcoming:

I don’t need luck as she’s clearly the best horse in the race, I just need to avoid bad luck! :welcoming:
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Is she clearly the best? If it’s soft or heavy where all her form is she may prove to be, but on better than soft she’s unproven.
Definitely one to take on.
 
Yep, Willie says no ground issues......


“I think she’ll improve a fair bit for the race, which leaves us in a good position going to Cheltenham. “I’ve no ground issues with her. Carrying the weight she carried today against nice opposition, I think is a good sign.”
 
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Carnage at Taunton said:
Is she clearly the best? If it’s soft or heavy where all her form is she may prove to be, but on better than soft she’s unproven.
Definitely one to take on.
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She’s won on good to soft on the flat in France. I know the old course is a sharper track but it’s still got undulations and is more stamina zapping with the steeper incline finish than the majority of the Irish courses. Townsend knows the horse better now and id say he’ll take up the running early enough if he has to. Over 2 and a half miles I’m not concerned at all about the track being too sharp for her.
 
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Not having an issue with ground is not necessarily the same as it being her optimum. I have heard Willie say countless times that a horse will improve for better ground and I am not aware that he has said this with her. If the ground is a little quicker i believe there are some it is likely to benefit more than it will benefit her so any gap just narrows a little. Also if the race is fairly tactical which looking at the potential line up I can see being more likely than unlikely it may help the speedier types a little more than it helps her. Everything is relative. It’s not like she has a stone in hand so small margins here can make the difference. Clearly opposing a Willie favourite is not going to go unchallenged but I am happy to back a few that I feel could have conditions of the race a little more in their favour at nice enough prices. I am not stupid however and fully accept that irrespective of race conditions she could prove to be the best horse in the race.
 
Fuck the ground.
The best horses go well on anything within the extremes.
The advantage the Irish horses often have is they are tougher and more resolute in addition to the natural ability - after often having ran against better horses on worse ground.
We might get the odd result, but that will only happen if they go no gallop. IMO.
 
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Quevega said:
Fuck the ground.
The best horses go well on anything within the extremes.
The advantage the Irish horses often have is they are tougher and more resolute in addition to the natural ability - after often having ran against better horses on worse ground.
We might get the odd result, but that will only happen if they go no gallop. IMO.
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Fuck the ground? Why be so extreme ? nobody is saying any horse won’t ’go well on anything’ . It can be small margins that turn a few pounds ahead in the ratings to very close and then you are making a decision on value and other factors like pace of the race etc. the best horse and highest rated horse loses frequently because on the day a horse rated a few pound lower had things more in their favour. Next time I will acknowledge she is Irish will act on the ground is a few pounds ahead and therefore wins. End of thread :biggrin-new: or at least it would be if it was the mares thread :biggrin-new:
 
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Studfarm254 said:
She’s won on good to soft on the flat in France. I know the old course is a sharper track but it’s still got undulations and is more stamina zapping with the steeper incline finish than the majority of the Irish courses. Townsend knows the horse better now and id say he’ll take up the running early enough if he has to. Over 2 and a half miles I’m not concerned at all about the track being too sharp for her.
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Not saying she won’t win, but enough in the form book that suggest others could do her on better than soft ground, and that she’s worth taking on.
 
Quevega said:
Fuck the ground.
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The Quevega bingo card has landed, finally :highly_amused: I wondered how long before you piped up about the ground haha!

Quevega said:
The best horses go well on anything within the extremes.
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The best horses aren't likely to come here though, they are going to the Champion Hurdle :devilish: So ground may well be a factor.
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
The Quevega bingo card has landed, finally :highly_amused: I wondered how long before you piped up about the ground haha!



The best horses aren't likely to come here though, they are going to the Champion Hurdle :devilish: So ground may well be a factor.
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Was going to say that too but figured he already knows that and is obviously just in a grumpy mood :biggrin-new: (no judgement here btw has been me for 2/3 days now :welcoming:)
 
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Rooster Booster said:
Fuck the ground? Why be so extreme ? nobody is saying any horse won’t ’go well on anything’ . It can be small margins that turn a few pounds ahead in the ratings to very close and then you are making a decision on value and other factors like pace of the race etc. the best horse and highest rated horse loses frequently because on the day a horse rated a few pound lower had things more in their favour. Next time I will acknowledge she is Irish will act on the ground is a few pounds ahead and therefore wins. End of thread :biggrin-new: or at least it would be if it was the mares thread :biggrin-new:
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Just my opinion.
I agree that there are lots of factors at play and are worthy of thinking about when making personal choices of when or when not to back.
But good horses go on any ground, and I will never sway from that opinion, especially all those in between Good & Heavy.

It will of course be a factor in the result and so will the pace of the race etc etc.
Mostly all of these are out of a punters control though.

Apart from whether to back or not.

So the point is - I would not let the ground factor stop me backing most horses in training (very few would have me hesitating).

Anyone who blames the ground or almost any other factor for a higher rated horses defeat is guessing anyway (educated guesses sometimes, sometimes not)

I wasn't bigging up JDG either, as my bigger bet is on Henry's mare.:encouragement:

Think she might need it soft :highly_amused:
 
Just look at last year with Lark in the Mornin and Absurde winning on heavy when connections were adamant they needed good ground. Unless it's a road or Haydock heavy, I don't pay too much attention to ground.
 
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