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Day One Festival Yankee: Captain Wayward Lad

Wayward Lad

Wayward Lad

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Thanks for the opportunity Kev :eagerness:

So folks, firstly we need to pick the 4 races from the 7 available on the first days racing

With the ‘will she, won’t she’ around BDA for the Mares/Champ H, I’d suggest we look elsewhere with regard to these two races…….let me know if anyone has an alternative view?

That’s leaves us with;
Supreme
Arkle
Ultima
Boodles H
Nat Hunt C

Maybe got for the three handicaps and then either the Supreme or Arkle?

Once we have the 4 races for the Yankee we can compile a short (ish) list for each race.
 
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At least you have the advantage that you will know declarations before you put up your Yankee... :cheerful:

What are you thinking?

Long shot, EW Yankee?
Win only "banker" yankee?
A mix of the two?
 
Any advantage I can get I’ll have it thankyou:barbershop_quartet_member:

Dependent on which races we go for then I’d suggest some nice each way picks which look to have a good chance to get placed, not muggy each ways, but not long odds high risk
 
Is there any situation where we see either KdB or Majborough not win?
For me they are 2 bankers but their odds maybe prohibitive for a Yankee?
 
Brooker17 said:
Is there any situation where we see either KdB or Majborough not win?
For me they are 2 bankers but their odds maybe prohibitive for a Yankee?
Click to expand...

I can my friend.
I think the Turners is made for Kopek and the only reason he's heading to the Supreme is because Mullins is desperate to avoid the Bartlett with Final Demand, there are rumours Salvator Munti is working well and if he were to get his head in front I think Mullins will look a little stupid despite having the winner.
His best chance of nailing all 3 G1 novice hurdles is Salvator Supreme, Kopek Turners and Demand Bartlett, but it won't happen...
 
If Willie see's Final Demand as eventually a gold cup horse what's the issue with going straight over 3miles now?
Or will it be the owners against FD going the Albert Bartlett?
Personaly I would rather see KdB in the Turner's also as I have the bigger slips but it's only 2 runs have been over 2 miles so would it still be able to step up the extra furlongs at this stage in it's career?
 
Owners don't want FD to go the Bartlett and I'd say there's very very little chance he goes the Bartlett. Each of the owners already have a horse each in that race as well.
 
Leman14 said:
At least you have the advantage that you will know declarations before you put up your Yankee... :cheerful:

What are you thinking?

Long shot, EW Yankee?
Win only "banker" yankee?
A mix of the two?
Click to expand...

This is something I was thinking about that I'm terrible at

That we sometimes try to "theme" our bets, in a way that might not be representative of the shape of the day's racing.

Just cos one race has good each way potential, doesn't mean we have to shoehorn in others?

I guess what I'm saying is, just back winners - put in Con Hill, Majb and a couple of handicap hounds someone makes a good case for
 
Brooker17 said:
Is there any situation where we see either KdB or Majborough not win?
For me they are 2 bankers but their odds maybe prohibitive for a Yankee?
Click to expand...

I can see Majborough beat my falling, as I thought he stumbled a few times at the DRF on landing. Yes he was going a fair pace up front but I’d rather back each way against him
 
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Ultima - Victtorino, Malina Girl, King Turgeon, Henry's Friend & Myretown are where I would be looking, based on current prices. The Changing Man looks to have an obvious chance, but now short enough in the market.

Boodles - Bit of chat going on about horses well in, Quevega mentioned a couple in the Boodles thread, also Total Look, and despite the rating I'm still really keen on Murcia.

NH Chase - Not done much on this race personally, but Transmission seems well thought of, as does Captain Cody, and Now Is The Hour, although, again, he's gone plenty short enough.
 
Don't normally contribute much to these as I'm too opinionated. But, if thinking of going the three handicaps as an e/w alternative then I would seriously consider Touch Me Not in the Arkle as a fourth selection. Yes, is held by Majborough, but shouldn't be afraid of one horse and TMN is closely matched with L'Eau Du Sud, especially when you consider TMN made an absolute howler of an error when walking through a fence when the pair raced each other (L'EDS finished 3 3/4 lengths ahead) at Sandown. He should be a single figure price in my book so anything 10/1+ is good.
 
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IstabraqBarRegular said:
Can't see Haiti Couleurs not winning
Click to expand...

Big shout that.
Handicap now, adds a different dynamic.
30 furlongs for novices, none of whom will have been this far previously.
I actually think this more than any festival race is set up for a complete rag…
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Ultima - Victtorino, Malina Girl, King Turgeon, Henry's Friend & Myretown are where I would be looking, based on current prices. The Changing Man looks to have an obvious chance, but now short enough in the market.

Boodles - Bit of chat going on about horses well in, Quevega mentioned a couple in the Boodles thread, also Total Look, and despite the rating I'm still really keen on Murcia.

NH Chase - Not done much on this race personally, but Transmission seems well thought of, as does Captain Cody, and Now Is The Hour, although, again, he's gone plenty short enough.
Click to expand...

Myretown trainer knows how to win an Ultima methinks

Lots of positive talk on the forum about Total Look today after the weights were announced

Bit of a story with Captain Cody as the owner (Caldwell) is running it in respect of Michael O’Sullivan
 
Kopek Des Bordes & Majborough look hard to oppose. I quite like William Munny & Touch Me Not as EW angles but realistically I think something would have to go wrong for the FAVs to fail.

If willing to gamble on the big two skipping the Mares Hurdle, I'd rate Kaka Conti as a good value EW selection particularly in relation to July Flower with whom she is closely matched on their latest runs.

I'd be willing to take on both Constitution Hill (yes he's been the greatest but he has yet to prove he's capable of hitting those heights after his various documented issues) and Brighterdaysahead (on her likely run style being put under pressure over this C&D) with Lossiemouth who I think (as connections stated) was below par when a reasonably close second to Constitution Hill and she has excelled on both courses at Cheltenham. The obvious caveats are that she could switch (though connections have remained firm in this '2 year' aim) and it has to be taken on trust how she bounces back from her fall last time (which may have had the silver lining of protecting her from a particularly grueling race last month given the strong pace she went).

British tax should ensure Beyond Your Dreams gets in on a nice weight in the Fred Winter and I'd also rate Liam Swagger as a decent EW option there. Beyond Your Dreams looks well treated in relation to Total Look & Wendrock though her hurdling has lacked fluency. Liam Swagger has looked very professional, not ground dependent and fairly treated directly/indirectly with the likes of Static, Torrent, Teriferma and Total Look.

Now Is The Hour looks an obvious plot for the NH Chase and I can't believe (given his clear non-trying imo) how the British h'capper has treated him relative to Captain Cody but I'd still much prefer the latter as a better value EW angle in the race.
 
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Wayward Lad said:
Any advantage I can get I’ll have it thankyou:barbershop_quartet_member:

Dependent on which races we go for then I’d suggest some nice each way picks which look to have a good chance to get placed, not muggy each ways, but not long odds high risk
Click to expand...

Makes sense to me with the make up in particular of the graded races.
I think going for the handicaps with a view to finding e/w value is the way to go, and personally I would look at the Arkle for my other.Yes a deserved fav but imo there are a few at e/w prices that could win and 2m nov chasers can be vulnerable.
JB, TMN and if she turns up OBN all
look capable of big runs to me.
 
Since 2020 and Honeysuckle's first win in the race Henry has had eight runners in the Mares Hurdles with the form figures: 187BD1234.

That includes Telmesomethinggirl's unlucky tumble and the 2-3-4 all from last year.

With at least one of BDA/Lossiemouth going to the CH I think there is probably value (for the places at least) in both of Henry's entries.

Lantry Lady was obviously tried over fences but I wouldn't be put off including either of them in the Day One selections, behind Jade de Grugy there's not massive depth to the race.
 
RufusFlynn said:
Since 2020 and Honeysuckle's first win in the race Henry has had eight runners in the Mares Hurdles with the form figures: 187BD1234.

That includes Telmesomethinggirl's unlucky tumble and the 2-3-4 all from last year.

With at least one of BDA/Lossiemouth going to the CH I think there is probably value (for the places at least) in both of Henry's entries.

Lantry Lady was obviously tried over fences but I wouldn't be put off including either of them in the Day One selections, behind Jade de Grugy there's not massive depth to the race.
Click to expand...

July Flower much more obvious one to continue his decent form than Lantry Lady you think?
 
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