Ballyburn cheltenham target

[BigL]

Any chance Bally tries to emulate dawn run and goes champion hurdle ? currently 9/4 favourite for arkle....6's for the novice 3 miler and 10's for the champ hurdle...

 

[TigerRolllllll]

Not sure when Willie does his schooling ? Must be soon

Lot may depend on how he takes to fences with the low head carriage

My guess is Willie will go chasing if he jumps & prob focus on 2.5m ish…..then judge as season goes ….looking at Bally & what else he has

As we get big more idea I suspect might be some doubles opportunities with other horses

 

[TigerRolllllll]

One thing is that Ballyburn being so short in 2 chase markets is helping finding bits of value on other runners

 

[BigL]

6/1 for the 3 mile novice .... Looks a fair bet

 

[Zachx02]

One thing is that Ballyburn being so short in 2 chase markets is helping finding bits of value on other runners

Impaire Et Passe 10/1 for the Arkle, I don't know how its still double figures after the scrapping of the turners

 

[Lobos]

I'm of the opinion that with the demise of the Turners it increases the possibility of him staying Hurdling. Willie has plenty of other top class Novices he can win the Arkle and BANC with which gives him the opportunity to go for the Dawn Run Double and further etch his name in the record books. Yes, he also has State Run and Lossiemouth vying for the 2m crown but he'd love to potentially have a 1,2 ,3 in the race I'm sure.

 

[Lobos]

Impaire Et Passe 10/1 for the Arkle, I don't know how its still double figures after the scrapping of the turners

Bookies may well think he's a proper mid trip horse so maybe sitting in no mans land re his festival chances.

 

[DeeBee]

:emmersed:May as well move this to the novice chase thread imo

 

[BigL]

I'm of the opinion that with the demise of the Turners it increases the possibility of him staying Hurdling. Willie has plenty of other top class Novices he can win the Arkle and BANC with which gives him the opportunity to go for the Dawn Run Double and further etch his name in the record books. Yes, he also has State Run and Lossiemouth vying for the 2m crown but he'd love to potentially have a 1,2 ,3 in the race I'm sure.

Does this not scupper your view on lossiemouth winning the CH

 

[Killiney]

I see mention here of his low head carriage which for some means he might not make a chaser. Conversely I have always heard the opposite that it is often a good indicator that a horse will make a good chaser. I think I have heard it said that it shows a horse is actually looking where it’s going. It would be good to hear other views on this. I’m sure it does not make for a comfortable ride but does it mean the horse is not going to be a good jumper?

 

[charlie]

I'd be borderline amazed if they stay hurdling.

His breeding screams staying chaser. Pretty much every horse bought for significant money out of Old Moon has gone over 3m. The Dams sire Old Vic produced Gold Cup winner Kicking King and Grand National winner Comply Or Die. His sire Flemensfirth farms top staying chasers with the likes of Imperial Commander, TOTG and multiple King George winners. On paper he is a Gold Cup horse in waiting and with the talent we've seen so far it stands to reason he could emulate any one of them if he takes to fences.

On paper you would think his owner (who you'd associate with staying chasers) is thinking Gold Cup long term, so for me that would rule out the Champion hurdle. After the Ballymore Willie said "It's the first time he's wowed me, I thought 'wow, what a performance' and to me that was a Champion Hurdle performance,". So on that basis, I could be wrong, but the next bit is also important. He said "It was really really spectacular. With his size, scope and pedigree our owners might decide to go chasing with him next year, I don't know. But with that performance he can go anywhere".​

If the owners have their say you'd think they'd land on BANC/Gold Cup as his future - is there much point going CH? Even if you're Willie, Constitution Hill is a speedy weapon, but State Man is the reigning champ and Lossiemouth is all the rage as the new improver on the scene. Having two challengers like that to take on CH seems more than enough, wouldn't make much sense to throw in a third IMO. Seen a few people say Willie has loads of top potential quality potential chasers in the yard which could be a reason they stay over hurdles but, we know from history that at this time of the year there are 20-30 horses on that list and by the DRF there are normally only one or two that look proper Grade 1 quality.

So for me it's chasing and obviously between the Arkle and BANC. If he's as good as he's made out to be and looks, he could probably win both if he translates his ability over fences, but I think we have to try and imagine what they see him as. Sticking at 2m won't restrict him from going over much further in open company in the future, but, it's much more common to see horses with his pedigree migrate from 2m5f over hurdles to 3m in time over fences. He was awesome in the Ballymore and I never make too much of runs post festival as you have to take them with a pinch of salt, but, he raced keenly but Paul had to properly get to work to drive him out and he simply outstayed them. My point is that he wasn't flashy and he looks more of a relentless galloper type than a two mile speedster, which again goes back to his pedigree.

 

[Lobos]

Does this not scupper your view on lossiemouth winning the CH

No as I'm not convinced at all that 2m is his best trip. Think he'd get done for toe in a CH .

I wouldn't be shocked at all if he were to stay Hurdling but IMO it would be the wrong decision.

 

[charlie]

No as I'm not convinced at all that 2m is his best trip. Think he'd get done for toe in a CH .

I wouldn't be shocked at all if he were to stay Hurdling but IMO it would be the wrong decision.

If you think Lossiemouth could potentially be one of the best mares WPM has trained, which is some statement but could be true for sure, then that plus the presence of State Man, would make the decision to stay hurdling all the more shocking would it not? If they took on the CH at 7 and he got done for toe (which I agree with) then do they really want to start novice chasing at 8 before a Gold Cup tilt at 9? I suppose we'll know soon enough.

 

[Eggs]

….hopefully we know if he’s staying hurdling or not later this month.

 

[Lobos]

If you think Lossiemouth could potentially be one of the best mares WPM has trained, which is some statement but could be true for sure, then that plus the presence of State Man, would make the decision to stay hurdling all the more shocking would it not? If they took on the CH at 7 and he got done for toe (which I agree with) then do they really want to start novice chasing at 8 before a Gold Cup tilt at 9? I suppose we'll know soon enough.

He could of course do a Coneygree and run in and win the GC as a Novice. It's been done before by lesser lights than him. Willie will have his own deas as to where they all stand at home . There may not be much between them at all which could make it even more difficult to avoid taking the CH route with all three. He's already said that Ballyburn could be the horse to do the Dawn Run Double and I don't recall him ever saying that about another one of his before? As you say we will know soon enough and nothing that any of us punters say or think will make a blind bit of difference as to the decision he comes to. Exciting times.

 

[Spectre]

Not sure when Willie does his schooling ? Must be soon

Lot may depend on how he takes to fences with the low head carriage

My guess is Willie will go chasing if he jumps & prob focus on 2.5m ish…..then judge as season goes ….looking at Bally & what else he has

As we get big more idea I suspect might be some doubles opportunities with other horses

Don't forget he's already run in and won his Point. And he did it very well, with his jumping looking to be an asset.

I can't see any line of thinking where they will be planning a hurdle campaign with him. Not least because they will now regret having wasted a season over hurdles with Impaire Et Passe last season.

Ballyburn will start out at 2 miles, and he'll stay there unless beaten. I know there are debates on this on other threads, but I'll put it here anyway. Everyone seems convinced Ballyburn and Impaire will be split. I'm not. There's no reason why both won't go to the Arkle if they are separated and keep winning at 2 miles.

Let's not forget Willie has a pile of staying novices already, so hardly needs either to fill a void with either of them. Plus Townend already has positive choices to make for the Brown Advisory. So unless either are beaten and look like they need to be stepped up they may well meet at Cheltenham.

 

[darlojim]

Ballyburn will start out at 2 miles, and he'll stay there unless beaten. I know there are debates on this on other threads, but I'll put it here anyway. Everyone seems convinced Ballyburn and Impaire will be split. I'm not. There's no reason why both won't go to the Arkle if they are separated and keep winning at 2 miles.

My exact thoughts too Paul :boxing:

 

[BigL]

Don't forget he's already run in and won his Point. And he did it very well, with his jumping looking to be an asset.

I can't see any line of thinking where they will be planning a hurdle campaign with him. Not least because they will now regret having wasted a season over hurdles with Impaire Et Passe last season.

Ballyburn will start out at 2 miles, and he'll stay there unless beaten. I know there are debates on this on other threads, but I'll put it here anyway. Everyone seems convinced Ballyburn and Impaire will be split. I'm not. There's no reason why both won't go to the Arkle if they are separated and keep winning at 2 miles.

Let's not forget Willie has a pile of staying novices already, so hardly needs either to fill a void with either of them. Plus Townend already has positive choices to make for the Brown Advisory. So unless either are beaten and look like they need to be stepped up they may well meet at Cheltenham.

The line of thinking is the dawn run double .....

 

[Odin]

Ballyburn will start out at 2 miles, and he'll stay there unless beaten.

Think this could depend on when he starts off to some extent?

If starts early enough, surely he goes for the 2m4f grade one at Limerick over the xmas grade 2 2m at leopardstown (which I'd suspect would be perfect for a horse like Tullyhill). Put in a massive staying performance there and the waters get murkier, particularly as it's easy to then send him to the 2m5f at DRF if Impaire and tullyhill (who may or may not have impressed at leopardstown at Xmas) can go to the Irish Arkle. If the Irish Arkle was still a grade 1 I'd agree with you that he stays at 2m as there would be an obvious 2m route the whole season.

If starts in a 2m beginners at Xmas like Marine, I also agree it's hard to see him moving beyond 2m this year - unless beaten

 

[Quevega]

Think this could depend on when he starts off to some extent?

If starts early enough, surely he goes for the 2m4f grade one at Limerick over the xmas grade 2 2m at leopardstown (which I'd suspect would be perfect for a horse like Tullyhill). Put in a massive staying performance there and the waters get murkier, particularly as it's easy to then send him to the 2m5f at DRF if Impaire and tullyhill (who may or may not have impressed at leopardstown at Xmas) can go to the Irish Arkle. If the Irish Arkle was still a grade 1 I'd agree with you that he stays at 2m as there would be an obvious 2m route the whole season.

If starts in a 2m beginners at Xmas like Marine, I also agree it's hard to see him moving beyond 2m this year - unless beaten

I think you meant to say the Leopardstown Xmas race.