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2017 Champion Hurdle

  • Thread starter Thread starter Deleted member 4957
  • Start date Start date
Ahh okay I thought it was more than that
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I think every trainer would value a champion hurdle far more than aJLT - there is no comparison. Plus the owner would be getting around 5 times more prize money.
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This specific trainer may also value a Gold Cup more than a CH and may be thinking longer term?

Not like he has no bullets to fire ... Nichols Canyon has more Grade 1s than any other horse in the line up... the "open year" comments seem to be branded around for every horse other than the Mullins second/third strings?

Maybe JLT with a view to the future.... ? Hope more than expectation on my part.
 
He can always go for the Gold Cup next season. It's only one race over hurdles, unless he wins and then he may be back next year.
 
I see what you are saying, but that might be exactly why they don't risk it? Gold Cup hopefuls thin on the ground at the moment (especially if Djakadam fails again) and with the potential of Yorkhill I wouldn't throw away a chance to win with my novice status at the festival.

It would be different if the owner/trainer didn't literally have a 2m grade 1 winning hurdler... but they do.

Shaneshill is going stayers, so what happens to Nic Canyon?
 
I think what we would all like to see but will probably never happen is Douvan added to the Ch.Hurdle, win it with what i believe woud be a schooling session if anything and then go out the next day and also take the Ch.Chase.
I can only dream, but surely he would win the Ch.Hurdle without breaking a sweat with plenty left for a 2nd race. My goodness how i woukd love t see that.
Come on Willie give the people what they want lol
 
Slightly less wild (although same ball park probably as Douvan in this) ... Un De Sceaux 7/1 NRNB.

Always like to look at these "unlikely" events. If UDS was supplemented, Ruby would ride NO QUESTION. UDS should already have a CH in the bag from a few years back and some argue (a good case) that he is better over hurdles than fences anyway.

Strongly run two miles, from the front, certainly wouldn't be a negative. Any soft in the going and he'd go off very short? I actually think he'd go off fav on good ground....

7/1 now... if he lined up he would be 1/4 those odds and money back when he inevitably doesn't.

First year I have EVER been tempted by these kinds of bets, but I still remember Vautour being 4/1 NRNB and deciding against putting 5 points on because Ricci said it was GC or nothing. Absolutely no reason for me not too, other than cash flow and I was still kicking myself after the 5 points I had on at even on the day for interest.
 
I'd love to see UDS revert back and go from the front in this. Like you say no risk to the bet bar tying up cash for 5 or so weeks.

This race still looks murky as hell to me. I thought once Faugheen was ruled out I might be able to rationalize the race but I still have no idea. It still comes down to what Willie will run in the race (not specifically thinking whoever he runs will win but how it will effect and race and market).

When I look at the possible runners in isolation it makes sense to have:

VVM - Mares
Yorkhill - JLT
UDS - Ryanair

The FFP touched upon Ricci's depleted team and even more so this year going for the races they have the best chance of winning rather than prestige. I think that's also going to be the case with Mullins entire team of horses this year. I don't think any of those 3 reverting back to hurdles would be as good a chance as them staying in their current race and Willie will be even keener than ever to get the winners on the board this year. Limini could fill in for VVM in the Mares with a potentially decent chance but the JLT and Ryanair look sparse for another Mullins horse to step in.

BUT that would then leave

Nichols Canyon
Footpad
Wicklow Brave/Ivan Grozny?

Which let's be honest would not fill you with confidence despite the race being wide open. Would Willie be willing to give up his stranglehold of the race this year? The Champion Hurdle is a race that Willie always holds a strong hand in and has a superb record in. He's also usually got solid back ups in the race:

2016 - Annie Power Fav (1st) Nichols Canyon (3rd) Sempre Medici (12th)
2015 - Faugheen Fav (1st) Arctic Fire (2nd) Hurricane Fly (3rd)
2014 - Hurricane Fly Fav (4th)
2013 - Hurricane Fly Fav (1st)
2012 - Hurricane Fly Fav (3rd) Zaidpour (8th)
2011 - Hurricane Fly Fav (1st) Thousand Stars (4th)

He's had the fav in the last 6 years, winning 4. He's also had some strong backup in these renewals too.

If it meant winning say the 3 races of Mares, JLT and Ryanair would Willie almost 'write off' (to a certain extent) the CH this year?
 
I'm tempted to have 1pt on the 119/1 on the exchanges for UDS, despite it being relatively unlikely 1pt will be easy enough to claw back elsewhere I'd imagine.

I have also invested in MTOY @ 50/1. I literally look at the betting and can't see there being much competition, Jezki, VVM, Apple's Jade & Moon Racer all have other more likely targets, UDS despite looking like I will back him on the exchanges will likely go for the Ryanair which is where I have invested in him for, Yorkhill is completely up in the air and is anyones guess as to where he goes, and the rest comprise of Buveur D'air, Yanworth, Petit Mouchoir, Brain Power, Superb Story, The New One, Sutton Place(?), Footpad, Nichols Canyon, Sceau Royal & Wicklow Brave plus others, for me 50/1 as opposed to the prices of some in that list is ridiculous.

I can understand he is now 10 and looks to be past being able to beat these, but Henderson can get one ready that much we do know. This is a wide open race and finishing 2nd in 2 champion hurdles is a feat in itself. I can look past his age, I think he has the ability, my actual main concern is that McCoy is the only horse ever to won on him, so it will be interesting to see who gets the leg up, I've not always been a huge fan, but I think Richard Johnson would be ideal.

These are just my thoughts, and I am now well and truly in the MTOY camp, fingers crossed he makes it now :)
 
If there was any chance UDS went CH route the yard would have snapped up the 119/1 CorD, if you see price tumble then's the time to climb in....
 
Is there any chance whatsoever that they stick Limini in this?

I have a feeling she may well be the type of horse that needs 1-2 runs a season max to see her full potential.

Admittedly, the Dawn Run form from last year is rather dire, but she travelled very well on softer ground than she'll get at Cheltenham, she made a mistake and then went out like a light.

It gives them the opportunity to go Mares route with Vroum Vroum Mag, where she's much more likely to win.

25/1 NRNB seems a fair price, though there's the very real possibility that she's just not that good!
 
I'd only back Limini with a view to laying her off for my stake back. She'd line up shorter than 25/1 for certain... but I wouldn't actually give her a chance on any or all known form.

She would have to SLAM Apples Jade in a couple of weeks, AND be showing more than VVM at home... otherwise I can't see it.

Tis a bet to nothing though and strange things DO happen...
 
Kevloaf said:
I'd only back Limini with a view to laying her off for my stake back. She'd line up shorter than 25/1 for certain... but I wouldn't actually give her a chance on any or all known form.

She would have to SLAM Apples Jade in a couple of weeks, AND be showing more than VVM at home... otherwise I can't see it.

Tis a bet to nothing though and strange things DO happen...
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That was the angle I was looking towards, but I also doubt she would have Ruby on top should Nichols Canyon rock up in this which would lose a little of the price factor.
 
They'd have to supplement her so I'd be confident Ruby would ride if she ran personally or they won't bother?
 
You'd have to standup and take notice of they did it but I don't think she'd be competitive in a champion hurdle, even one this bad.
 
The only reason I could see Limini going for the CH over VVM is if they thought the 2m4 trip in the mares was considered to be too far.

Even if she did SLAM Apples Jade surely that would then give them the impetus to have her go for the Mares (having just thoroughly beaten the main rival, albeit there's a bit of depth this year) and free up VVM to go here?
 
Limini was fine with her own sex but disappointed in open company. Never though Aintree Top novices would become a champion Hurdle pointer...
 
Have l missed something, is there talk of Limini heading for the CH ?
Surely not, can't happen
 
Lydia seems confident Yorkhill will end up in the mix for it. I really don't get it.

Nichols Canyon has at least as good a chance ?
 
I think evens is in agreement she isn't good enough but if they went for it it'd mean behind the scenes stone stars had aligned and you'd have to take notice. If you back now at 25s nrnb you'll defo be able to trade out for profit BUT in all likelihood you're just giving your bookie money for them to give it back.

I think NC is being vastly under rated. Beating twice my petit mouchoir on a track that he never performs well at isn't reason to rule him out.

More grade 1 wins than anything else in the field .... I'm not particularly bullish but it doesn't take a huge leap of faith
 
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