General Chat

[Lobos]

Omg …. Are you a teenager….there’s no ambiguity about going to Cheltenham in any of those quotes which is what you said. You said miss Cheltenham. People are trying to help you here. There is NO talk of her missing Cheltenham with the Mares cited as the most likely target. Can we agree that’s what the quotes say?

Why throw probably and maybe in there then if it were definite??

I wish I was a teenager again believe me . Glad you think I still act like one though. I like that:biggrin-new:

I'm not agreeing to anything your honour.

I do agree if she goes to Cheltenham the Mares is the only race she'll run in. There you go.

 

[jack1092]

I can make excuses for Zanahiyr. He was given a two week break after a fairly gruelling race in the Lismullen Hurdle, plus he was made to make the running, I imagine to set it up for stablemate, Teahupoo, which clearly worked.

As for Buddy One, he is a handicapper, just 3 runs back running and losing over the same distance off 137. He clearly needs further, but he's still a handicapper, whichever way you look at it, IMO.

A big massive line through the final pair. No chance you can rate Ashroe through them...

 

[Brooksie]

Jesus so now she's beating a 156 horse 9Ls and a 152 14l.....so the two in front must have Constitution Hill in trouble....

I'd say the front 3 have run in around their marks. 140, and 2x 160.

I hate this saying "take the winnner out and he/she would've beaten"....it's a completely different race without the front 2 in it to start with.

Her allowance is built into her mark so no they wouldn't be close enough to trouble a 175 rated CH yet. I'm not sure how you'd come to that conclusion based on what I've said? It's my opinion Teahupoo put up something like a 166/167 performance here with IEP 165. Everything coming out of Jack's mouth post race would suggest Teahupoo has strengthened and developed over the summer, and he was entitled to. Is it inconceivable to think a horse with Teahupoo's profile can improve 5lbs? Lightly raced, young, goes incredibly well fresh, would have been 100% ready for the race if the the plan has been to give him a 4 month break.

Going back to AD. In my eyes she's split a couple of 150 rated horses and two mid 160 horses. I just can't have her rated 140 (now 142). I think the handicapper has this wrong. Especially when you consider Lossiemouth is rated 147 for beating an average bunch of Juveniles last term. If I could back AD against Lossiemouth in a handicap off their marks it would be a remortgage job. Level of form is night and day.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Am I the only one who doesn't like any of the mullins 3

Lossiemouth, gala and ashroe

All hard pullers

All doubtful to get up the hill over 2m4f for me

 

[Brooksie]

Am I the only one who doesn't like any of the mullins 3

Lossiemouth, gala and ashroe

All hard pullers

All doubtful to get up the hill over 2m4f for me

AD breeding would say she'd love every minute of it. Her pulling is a problem though for sure.

 

[AaronLad]

Her allowance is built into her mark so no they wouldn't be close enough to trouble a 175 rated CH yet. I'm not sure how you'd come to that conclusion based on what I've said? It's my opinion Teahupoo put up something like a 166/167 performance here with IEP 165. Everything coming out of Jack's mouth post race would suggest Teahupoo has strengthened and developed over the summer, and he was entitled to. Is it inconceivable to think a horse with Teahupoo's profile can improve 5lbs? Lightly raced, young, goes incredibly well fresh, would have been 100% ready for the race if the the plan has been to give him a 4 month break.

Going back to AD. In my eyes she's split a couple of 150 rated horses and two mid 160 horses. I just can't have her rated 140 (now 142). I think the handicapper has this wrong. Especially when you consider Lossiemouth is rated 147 for beating an average bunch of Juveniles last term. If I could back AD against Lossiemouth in a handicap off their marks it would be a remortgage job. Level of form is night and day.

Completely agree with your reading of the form of the 2 mullin mares and wouldn't have them rated the way they are myself.
However i wouldn't be rushing to remortgage for a handicap.
lossiemouth has much more scope for improvement
But i get what you're saying

 

[Quevega]

Am I the only one who doesn't like any of the mullins 3

Lossiemouth, gala and ashroe

All hard pullers

All doubtful to get up the hill over 2m4f for me

hard pullers is a bit much, don't you think ?
others would say strong travellers.

would you have described Annie Power or BDD as hard pullers ?

 

[FinalFurlong91]

hard pullers is a bit much, don't you think ?
others would say strong travellers.

would you have described Annie Power or BDD as hard pullers ?

No I'd definitely say hard pullers. Ashroe was pulling very hard yesterday as gala marceau did most of last season. Perhaps a tad harsh on Lossie, but iv never watched her race and thought she wanted 2m4f.

No point arguing over semantics either way.

looking at the likely runners, hold up horse after hold up horse. Can see the race being run similar to last year and you wear it well and love envoi could well get an easy lead.

 

[Rooster Booster]

Her allowance is built into her mark so no they wouldn't be close enough to trouble a 175 rated CH yet. I'm not sure how you'd come to that conclusion based on what I've said? It's my opinion Teahupoo put up something like a 166/167 performance here with IEP 165. Everything coming out of Jack's mouth post race would suggest Teahupoo has strengthened and developed over the summer, and he was entitled to. Is it inconceivable to think a horse with Teahupoo's profile can improve 5lbs? Lightly raced, young, goes incredibly well fresh, would have been 100% ready for the race if the the plan has been to give him a 4 month break.

Going back to AD. In my eyes she's split a couple of 150 rated horses and two mid 160 horses. I just can't have her rated 140 (now 142). I think the handicapper has this wrong. Especially when you consider Lossiemouth is rated 147 for beating an average bunch of Juveniles last term. If I could back AD against Lossiemouth in a handicap off their marks it would be a remortgage job. Level of form is night and day.

You have taken a view that essentially the race was better than it has been given credit for and as a consequence a few horses have received ratings lower than you feel they deserve . Fwiw I agree with you. I don’t agree with your reading of the horses AD beat but I do think Teahupoo deserved higher. The winner got an rpr 2 pounds lower than last years race. I personally think that’s wrong and I think Teahupoo has definitely improved. I think AD could be a big player come March but only if she learns to settle. This is all peoples opinions including mine ofc , just because they are paid to have them and you are not doesn’t mean they are right and you are not. As long as you take note of the great judges on here (not me btw) and consider their opinions (which I’m sure you do) then don’t be afraid to back your own opinion.

 

[Craigy14]

No I'd definitely say hard pullers. Ashroe was pulling very hard yesterday as gala marceau did most of last season. Perhaps a tad harsh on Lossie, but iv never watched her race and thought she wanted 2m4f.

No point arguing over semantics either way.

looking at the likely runners, hold up horse after hold up horse. Can see the race being run similar to last year and you wear it well and love envoi could well get an easy lead.

I just watched the race back and hard pulling is a bit much imo. At all times (well 99% of the time) Patrick’s hands are more or less on her neck. If she was pulling very hard his hands would be all over the place. She knocked her head around once (maybe twice if I missed another).

Thought she ran pretty well yesterday and was never going to be a match for the front 2. Paddy clearly thought so too dropping her to 7/2. Given she’ll likely come on for the run etc I think she’s a huge player come march.

 

[Brooksie]

You have taken a view that essentially the race was better than it has been given credit for and as a consequence a few horses have received ratings lower than you feel they deserve . Fwiw I agree with you. I don’t agree with your reading of the horses AD beat but I do think Teahupoo deserved higher. The winner got an rpr 2 pounds lower than last years race. I personally think that’s wrong and I think Teahupoo has definitely improved. I think AD could be a big player come March but only if she learns to settle. This is all peoples opinions including mine ofc , just because they are paid to have them and you are not doesn’t mean they are right and you are not. As long as you take note of the great judges on here (not me btw) and consider their opinions (which I’m sure you do) then don’t be afraid to back your own opinion.

In short yep, I think the race is underrated. I think the vast majority of people are desperate to see a legitimate contender to Constitution Hill and the only hope realistically rested on IEP shoulders. There was probably always going to be a negative outlook to the result that we got. I've probably always been a bit of contrarian though, always looking at the opposite angle. Which serves me well at times but probably leaves me with egg on my face more often than not. I must admit the forum has helped me challenge my own ideas, if people think I'm wrong I welcome their input. It's what makes this place so valuable.

p.s

Always worth listening to your opinion Rooster :encouragement:

 

[jack1092]

Her allowance is built into her mark so no they wouldn't be close enough to trouble a 175 rated CH yet. I'm not sure how you'd come to that conclusion based on what I've said? It's my opinion Teahupoo put up something like a 166/167 performance here with IEP 165. Everything coming out of Jack's mouth post race would suggest Teahupoo has strengthened and developed over the summer, and he was entitled to. Is it inconceivable to think a horse with Teahupoo's profile can improve 5lbs? Lightly raced, young, goes incredibly well fresh, would have been 100% ready for the race if the the plan has been to give him a 4 month break.

Going back to AD. In my eyes she's split a couple of 150 rated horses and two mid 160 horses. I just can't have her rated 140 (now 142). I think the handicapper has this wrong. Especially when you consider Lossiemouth is rated 147 for beating an average bunch of Juveniles last term. If I could back AD against Lossiemouth in a handicap off their marks it would be a remortgage job. Level of form is night and day.

My point was more that if they've run to form you have.....


156 rated beaten 22Ls. I know how the ratings work in general but i couldn't be agreeing the last two have ran to their marks...No way.

I'd be looking at AD as the handicapper and letting her prove that- as it's inconclusive from Sunday, and her mares novice formlines aren't looking too strong.

Her earlier Royal Bond run would probably help state her level of ability more though.

I wouldn't disagree on the Lossiemouth point, i don't have a strong view on her, or a strong liking.

 

[Lobos]

Am I the only one who doesn't like any of the mullins 3

Lossiemouth, gala and ashroe

All hard pullers

All doubtful to get up the hill over 2m4f for me

Not that I don't like the first two it's just that I believe it'll be a year too early and that Lossiemouth is more a 2 miler . As for AD........can't have her at all.

 

[Runragged]

You have taken a view that essentially the race was better than it has been given credit for and as a consequence a few horses have received ratings lower than you feel they deserve . Fwiw I agree with you. I don’t agree with your reading of the horses AD beat but I do think Teahupoo deserved higher. The winner got an rpr 2 pounds lower than last years race. I personally think that’s wrong and I think Teahupoo has definitely improved. I think AD could be a big player come March but only if she learns to settle. This is all peoples opinions including mine ofc , just because they are paid to have them and you are not doesn’t mean they are right and you are not. As long as you take note of the great judges on here (not me btw) and consider their opinions (which I’m sure you do) then don’t be afraid to back your own opinion.

I think the slow early pace has meant it is hard to grade the race any higher. I see the RPRs have come through with 166 for Teahupoo, 163 IEP and 143 AD which is a couple of pounds higher than what I made it. Last years race there was more proven form outside novice company with Klassical Dream and Honeysuckle making it easier to grade. Whether Teahupoo has improved or can improve is impossible to tell on the basis of that run without hindsight to help us. Is beating last years Ballymore winner a step up on beating KD and Honey?

For what it's worth it seems Teahupoo at least retains his ability from last year which saw him third in a Stayers. I would still have questions as to whether he is ground dependant? Does he perform his best at Cheltenham and does he stay a strongly run three miles? I thought he had every chance of winning the race last year, was less than a length behind Sire Du Berlais jumping the 2nd last turning in yet still got beat.

 

[AaronLad]

My point was more that if they've run to form you have.....


156 rated beaten 22Ls. I know how the ratings work in general but i couldn't be agreeing the last two have ran to their marks...No way.

I'd be looking at AD as the handicapper and letting her prove that- as it's inconclusive from Sunday, and her mares novice formlines aren't looking too strong.

Her earlier Royal Bond run would probably help state her level of ability more though.

I wouldn't disagree on the Lossiemouth point, i don't have a strong view on her, or a strong liking.

But she's been constantly pitched in against the boys
2 out of 6 hurdle races were mares only in her career
3 grade 1's against the boys

 

[archie]

Interesting that, on their individual scales, the official handicapper and rprs both have Teahupoo Sunday's running 2lb below last year's mark in the same race. 163/161 and 168/166 respectively.

 

[Lobos]

Interesting that, on their individual scales, the official handicapper and rprs both have Teahupoo Sunday's running 2lb below last year's mark in the same race. 163/161 and 168/166 respectively.

Seeing as he beat Honeysuckle I can see where they are coming from. It does appear that he may be best suited by the mid trip as Someone else mentioned. Perhaps the Stayers distance around Cheltenham is a bit beyond him.

 

[AaronLad]

Interesting that, on their individual scales, the official handicapper and rprs both have Teahupoo Sunday's running 2lb below last year's mark in the same race. 163/161 and 168/166 respectively.

surely honeysuckle in last years race would have something to do with that?
2 time reigning champion hurdler? he beat her for the first time.....
surely thats better than beating another sir gerhard

 

[Craigy14]

But she's been constantly pitched in against the boys
2 out of 6 hurdle races were mares only in her career
3 grade 1's against the boys

Definitely this, also a couple of those runs she wasn’t even put in the races whatsoever.

Over obstacles

Royal Bond last year third, looks pretty good form.
DRF she wasn’t put in the race.
Next 2 runs in mares company she won fairly easily imo.

Yesterday I think they knew they wouldn’t have a chance against the front 2 but make sure she beat the other 2 which she did.

 

[jack1092]

But she's been constantly pitched in against the boys
2 out of 6 hurdle races were mares only in her career
3 grade 1's against the boys

I did say on the line below about her RB run....?..as i consider that a decent run, the Leop one i'd say again fairly inconclusive.