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2024 Cheltenham - the odds on offer.

Nevertoolate said:
I feel allegorie de vassy is being slightly overlooked in the mares Chase. Went down by 2 lengths last year to an excellent mare who a lot think had a great chance in the ryanair next year pre injury. She actually headed impervious jumping the last before being tapped for toe up the hill. She had a tough end to last year but I’d factor in the Cheltenham left it’s mark on her. She also still has age on her side going into next year. Would be nice to hear thoughts on her
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Good shout this, but I know a few FJ judges who have her as a Gold Cup horse this year so perhaps a step up is in the offing...
 
Nevertoolate said:
I feel allegorie de vassy is being slightly overlooked in the mares Chase. Went down by 2 lengths last year to an excellent mare who a lot think had a great chance in the ryanair next year pre injury. She actually headed impervious jumping the last before being tapped for toe up the hill. She had a tough end to last year but I’d factor in the Cheltenham left it’s mark on her. She also still has age on her side going into next year. Would be nice to hear thoughts on her
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How is 6/1 second fav over looked? She's not one for me. She's not particularly fluent over her obstacles and Impervious definitely has her number. If something happened to Impervious (who wont go Ryanair) then you have Instit who smashed ADV as a 5yo, so she could be improving and prove better over time. Dino Blue is more interesting at a double figure price IMO.
 
Istabraq said:
Good shout this, but I know a few FJ judges who have her as a Gold Cup horse this year so perhaps a step up is in the offing...
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Really? She's some engine on her but the clumsy mistakes and at the wrath of many a fan the knack of not finding a whole heap when in a battle I think she'd hate a GC type race.
 
charlie said:
How is 6/1 second fav over looked? S
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I had no idea she was 6/1, haven't looked at the market for a while but I'm sure when I last checked it was 6/4 Impervious 10/1 ADV.
The disparity in price between those two looked wrong but then I've always based my view on the Mares on the basis Impervious was heading to the Ryanair and ADV was stepping up, which is why I've been backing Dinoblue.
Every chance I've got it wrong on all counts...
 
charlie said:
How is 6/1 second fav over looked? She's not one for me. She's not particularly fluent over her obstacles and Impervious definitely has her number. If something happened to Impervious (who wont go Ryanair) then you have Instit who smashed ADV as a 5yo, so she could be improving and prove better over time. Dino Blue is more interesting at a double figure price IMO.
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I haven’t seen her mentioned as much as the likes of maskada and dinoblue. Who both need to prove they can stay 2m4 around Cheltenham. I cant have instit who beat ADV when she looked cooked on 2 occasions post a gruelling race at Cheltenham. Instit was beaten 8 lengths by brides hill who ADV smashed 19L pre Cheltenham. I think her jumping gets a little bit too much criticism. She was fantastic at Limerick but made that mistake at thurles and then looked very cautious after that for the rest of the race but her jumping at Cheltenham was what got her close to impervious IMO. I didn’t realise her price had been cut that severely, must have been off the back of the impervious news last week
 
I appreciate the views pre-Cheltenham about her getting the Gold Cup trip, but ADV doesn't look to want more than 2m4f to me. Impervious outstayed her, and whilst she is a very very good mare, she'd have to be outbattling Impervious to stand a chance is a Gold Cup.

One curveball, do we think Brandy Love might go over fences? From a PTP background and fences might straighten her up a bit. She certainly has an engine but doesn't seem nimble enough at hurdles to challenge at the top table. I do appreciate that her campaign last year was a little rushed.
 
Exar Essay said:
I appreciate the views pre-Cheltenham about her getting the Gold Cup trip, but ADV doesn't look to want more than 2m4f to me. Impervious outstayed her, and whilst she is a very very good mare, she'd have to be outbattling Impervious to stand a chance is a Gold Cup.

One curveball, do we think Brandy Love might go over fences? From a PTP background and fences might straighten her up a bit. She certainly has an engine but doesn't seem nimble enough at hurdles to challenge at the top table. I do appreciate that her campaign last year was a little rushed.
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Yea what do you make of the Donnellys buying her last season? Slightly strange unless they have aspirations for breeding… which they may very well have

She disappointed me last year no real interest in her now
 
HesTheOne said:
Yea what do you make of the Donnellys buying her last season? Slightly strange unless they have aspirations for breeding… which they may very well have

She disappointed me last year no real interest in her now
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All I made of it was that Grech was trying to get rid and the Donnellys wanted another winner at the festival and felt she was a good shot. Might not be giving it the deep think it requires. She wouldn't interest me in the Mares Hurdle, but would over a fence.
 
HesTheOne said:
Yea what do you make of the Donnellys buying her last season? Slightly strange unless they have aspirations for breeding… which they may very well have

She disappointed me last year no real interest in her now
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Not trying to make excuses for her but I wonder if Cheltenham simply came too soon for her after the Quevega Hurdle. There was just under three weeks between races after 300+ days off the track so perhaps that played is part?

I also remember thinking at the time that the other jockeys in the race (bar the front two and maybe Davy) gave their horses far too much to do against two strong, staying types over the trip. All being said, it's very difficult to put faith in her and like HesTheOne I also won't be getting involved this time around.
 
RoadToCheltenham said:
Not trying to make excuses for her but I wonder if Cheltenham simply came too soon for her after the Quevega Hurdle. There was just under three weeks between races after 300+ days off the track so perhaps that played is part?

I also remember thinking at the time that the other jockeys in the race (bar the front two and maybe Davy) gave their horses far too much to do against two strong, staying types over the trip. All being said, it's very difficult to put faith in her and like HesTheOne I also won't be getting involved this time around.
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Do you not feel she has her own ideas about life and racing ?
I love a horse with character, but this one could be difficult and some.
I can only imagine she was bought for breeding, maybe give her an Autumn run, then a mid Winter run, see how she fares and if the form isn't there get her in teh breeding shed by the time Cheltenham comes around...
 
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Nevertoolate said:
I haven't seen her mentioned as much as the likes of maskada and dinoblue. Who both need to prove they can stay 2m4 around Cheltenham. I cant have instit who beat ADV when she looked cooked on 2 occasions post a gruelling race at Cheltenham. Instit was beaten 8 lengths by brides hill who ADV smashed 19L pre Cheltenham. I think her jumping gets a little bit too much criticism. She was fantastic at Limerick but made that mistake at thurles and then looked very cautious after that for the rest of the race but her jumping at Cheltenham was what got her close to impervious IMO. I didn’t realise her price had been cut that severely, must have been off the back of the impervious news last week
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This far out its all about price. Single figure odds about a horse beat at Cheltenham, beat twice thereafter, who doesn't jump too fluently and wants to go up in trip doesn't merit much discussion does it? I thought the two you mentioned are far more interesting to talk about. Maskada is a festival winner bred to get further who is 5 times the price of ADV and Dino Blue has little to find on ratings and has been (although not anymore) 3 times the price of ADV. I wouldn't be shocked if ADV won the MC, but I'd equally be shocked if someone could make a case 6/1 was a stonking good bet this far out with all that considered. I think she should be around 12/1.
 
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365 have just refused to price up Monty's Star for the BANC, "trader's decision". Is that an indication I'm on their radar??
 
Frankely My Dear said:
365 have just refused to price up Monty's Star for the BANC, "trader's decision". Is that an indication I'm on their radar??
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They’re horrendous sometimes. They did the same for me re Il Est Francais when he’s priced up with most others.
 
Exar Essay said:
They’re horrendous sometimes. They did the same for me re Il Est Francais when he’s priced up with most others.
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I got the same response re: Galia des Liteaux for the Mares Chase, who I think would be a big player on softer going! Pathetic bookkeeping…

Edit: With PP i should have noted…
 
I haven't had any issues with 365 previously, WH have restricted me even after my account was in the red
 
Kautostar said:
Betfair exchange are the worst in my experience. Nightmare to deal with
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Agreed. I might be being naive but I can’t understand why they would be difficult as it’s not their liability.
 
I'm nowhere near as active on the exchange as I was many years ago but... it used to be as easy as putting a request on the Betfair forum for a horse to be added to an antepost market
 
….Salvador Ziggy into a best price 8-1 for NHC after todays run.
 
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