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Cheltenham Festival Handicaps

I think the next race will be of interest to if/what handicap he was to go down. A mark of 143 means a win could put him out of the Kim Muir picture (145)
 
jono said:
I think the next race will be of interest to if/what handicap he was to go down. A mark of 143 means a win could put him out of the Kim Muir picture (145)
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I'd think they will head straight there as it was a bit of a slog at the weekend. Last year he ran on trials day before the festival so he'll only be 2 weeks more gap this time.
 
The 2 horses that interest me for the Kim Muir currently are A Good Skin and Upswing.

A Good Skin seems to wake up between the months of Feb and April, finished 2nd in the race in 2016 and has won at Cheltenham, 25/1 seems a fair price and I'm hoping Michael Legg gets back on board for the race as he is more than able of producing the goods.

Upswing is JP's likely main runner for me, he seems to have success in this race as a owner, having won 2 of the last 5 runnings, as well as a 2nd and a 4th. Again, a 25/1 shot, Upswing was 9th in last years race, but it was clear that Cause Of Causes was the owners first string and went on to win well. He is now rated 5lb lower than last year, with a encouraging run at Cheltenham in the BetVictor Chase (Grade 3), finishing a 7 lengths 5th. I am ignoring his latest 2 runs with, what I believe to be, genuine reasons. He will likely have the assistance of either Jamie Codd or Derek O'Connor which is also a big added bonus.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
The 2 horses that interest me for the Kim Muir currently are A Good Skin and Upswing.

A Good Skin seems to wake up between the months of Feb and April, finished 2nd in the race in 2016 and has won at Cheltenham, 25/1 seems a fair price and I'm hoping Michael Legg gets back on board for the race as he is more than able of producing the goods.

Upswing is JP's likely main runner for me, he seems to have success in this race as a owner, having won 2 of the last 5 runnings, as well as a 2nd and a 4th. Again, a 25/1 shot, Upswing was 9th in last years race, but it was clear that Cause Of Causes was the owners first string and went on to win well. He is now rated 5lb lower than last year, with a encouraging run at Cheltenham in the BetVictor Chase (Grade 3), finishing a 7 lengths 5th. I am ignoring his latest 2 runs with, what I believe to be, genuine reasons. He will likely have the assistance of either Jamie Codd or Derek O'Connor which is also a big added bonus.
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A Good Skin has a lower rating this year than last and will also not have Causes Of Causes blotting the handicap again. He has a shout for sure and may even get one of the Irish amateurs if he's considered a good thing.
 
I tried doing some work on the County hurdle last night but the last two renewals have been for horses rated between 134-146 and 138-152 so with such a compressed handicap it's impossible.
You could have a horse who today would be balloted out but a single win and you have topweight.
Handicap's are pretty much conditions races these days...
 
Istabraq said:
I tried doing some work on the County hurdle last night but the last two renewals have been for horses rated between 134-146 and 138-152 so with such a compressed handicap it's impossible.
You could have a horse who today would be balloted out but a single win and you have topweight.
Handicap's are pretty much conditions races these days...
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Compared to the Close House Novice chase on day one, that is very uncompressed :-)
 
The Novice Handicap chase is a joke now ...2lbs last year wasnt it ?
 
I wonder what rating Phil Smith will pick from thin air for Campeador?
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I wonder what rating Phil Smith will pick from thin air for Campeador?
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If I'm correct, Campeador got an entry in the Ascot handicap before Christmas and was rated 155 versus an Irish rating of 148. I think he'll struggle off that mark as he'd have to be close to Champion Hurdle standard to win a Cheltenham handicap off that mark.
 
mayo said:
The Novice Handicap chase is a joke now ...2lbs last year wasnt it ?
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I think it was 2lbs last year and maybe 3lbs the year before. It's a race I feel sorry for the Irish to get into as how can they possibly predict what inflation Phil Smith will apply.
 
I think that nov chase ended up 4lb but yes, hardly a handicap.
I think it's the poorest chase of the week, only the mares novice hurdle comes close where there'll be an odds on shot and 20/1 bar 3 or 4 with most of the field 50/1 and not capable of getting within 25l of the winner
A veterans race would be a better, more competive spectacle....
 
they could up the novice chase to 150 - i think it started at 145

fred winter and martin pipe also fairly random and in smiths gift.

campeadour is a leery ****
 
they could up the novice chase to 150 - i think it started at 145

fred winter and martin pipe also fairly random and in smiths gift.

campeadour is a leery ****
 
What are the official weight dates this year?

2nd March last year I think?
 
It'll be a similar date. Entries are usually out the week leading up to the Adoins hurdle at Kempton.
 
A Fred Winter oss ?

Project Bluebook Looks Useful
January 20th, 2017 | Marten's Current Racing Diary

It was fairly humdrum stiff today but we might have seen a good horse in the shape of Project Bluebook, who won the 0-135 handicap hurdle at Musselburgh.

The son of Sinndar was a useful performer on the Flat, winning three of his 10 starts and ending the season on a mark of 81. He made his hurdling debut at Catterick in December, running the useful Nietzsche to a length, and then went to Musselburgh on New Year’s Day and beat Warp Factor by two and a quarter lengths.

The handicapper gave him a mark of 127 and John Quinn clearly must have felt that was more than workable in pitching him into today’s race. Travelling smoothly throughout, he took up the lead approaching the last and quickened clear to beat Mister Kit by two and a half lengths.

He will be raised to the high 130s for this, which could be enough to earn him a place in the Fred Winter Novices’ Handicap Hurdle. The alternative could be the Triumph Hurdle, although that will prove a very different challenge to winning a handicap at Musselburgh.

Drops Of Jupitor won the closing bumper in the manner of a mare with a future. The daughter of Dylan Thomas is bred for the Flat, so she was better suited to this flat track and good ground than the mud she had been ploughing through in Ireland.

Bye for now

Marten
 
I have MTOY in a few multiples for the county - he is now down to 154.

On Arkle thread Buveur Dair mentioned at 151 ?

Anyone got thoughts on what top rated in it might be ?
 
County does attract quality and that;s what sets it up for an unexposed younger horse further down.

When considering form there are some courses to ignore and I make Musselburgh one of them, flat right handed track the complete opposite of Cheltenham, others include Stratford, Huntingdon and Plumpton.
Kempton is also completely different but maybe the quality of races over Christmas contribute to that bucking the trend.
So I'd like to see some left handed undulating course form in there too

Someone posted some detailed stats on course form to avoid here last year, I might have a scour of past threads and see if I can find it....
 
I can't find the attachment that was posted and historic posts only go back so far so we might need OV to try digging this out.
Someone posted a document about 50 pages long with detailed stats, I made a summary of the key ones and entered them on the info sheet I carry around with me at Chelts, summary below:

Avoid horses who had their prep run at Huntingdon, Ludlow, Bangor, Stratford and Plumpton
Oppose horses who had their prep run on AW
Oppose A King horses rated 129 or under
Oppose German bred horses
Oppose Hobbs horses who finished outside top 3 last time
Oppose Pipe horses on Friday
Oppose all Jonjo horses with claimers
Oppose all Jonjo horses that ran in last 19 days
Oppose all Henderson horses 11yo or older
Oppose all Henderson horses who have been off track for 109 days or more
Oppose all Henderson horses that failed to complete last time
Oppose all Nicholls horses dropped in class
Oppose all Nicholls horses with 5lb or more claimers
Oppose all Mullins chasers aged 9 or over
 
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