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Absolutely, all valid points. Just trying to point out other options for IEP other than turners. My personal opinion, is that if opportunities present, marine nationale would beat facile vega over 2m and a fence. IEP would therefore perhaps go 2m and facile vega stepped up in trip.
just thoughts spinning round my vacuous head
 
I think IEP is a proper horse. I’m sure that he’d win an arkle or turners if he went chasing. But also sure that he’s the only horse with the potential to serve it up to CH in churdle. Not sure where he’ll go, but absolutely sure that turners is not nailed on.
can’t wait to find out.
 
Guinness Village said:
I think IEP is a proper horse. I’m sure that he’d win an arkle or turners if he went chasing. But also sure that he’s the only horse with the potential to serve it up to CH in churdle. Not sure where he’ll go, but absolutely sure that turners is not nailed on.
can’t wait to find out.
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Interesting, I feel exactly the same way about Marine National…
 
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Istabraq said:
Interesting, I feel exactly the same way about Marine National…
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I think I'm with you on that.

Arkle most likely.

But they could give the Champion Hurdle a go, if they wished, and be the best Novice moving to that race next season (like Con Hill did last season).

Improving the depth of the Champion Hurdle (now and in the future) definitely makes me happy.

State Man and Constitution Hill won 8 Grade 1s between them last year, and lost to no other horses the whole season.

Much higher bar required from Novices wishing to disrupt those 2 next season c/w prior years (with Honey, Epatante, Sharjah to take on)
 
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Guinness Village said:
3. Statesman won’t beat CH, but IEP just might. When he’s in open company, IEP will improve past stateman, and be willies number one 2m hurdler.
6. Who wants a turners winner? Churdle all day. And if IEP goes chasing, why not arkle?
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With the disclaimer that IEP in the Turners is my biggest winner, my biggest issues with your points are these two..

3. If State Man wins every Grade 1 in Ireland, why would Willie move him or try to take him on with something else? Logically it makes no sense to me as there's absolutely no guarantee IEP would be better than CH. If CH goes chasing, there's an argument to take on MN with IEP in Champion Hurdle, but again, why move the horse (State Man) that is beating everything except potentially the greatest ever?
6. Turners is a means to an end (i.e. it's a Grade 1 Festival win in novice season). Every chance Willie thinks Facile is better than MN (comments post-Cheltenham suggest that), so if CH stays hurdling, he may want to put the record right. Turners also looks an absolute gimme for IEP if he takes to chasing so why not take the opportunity?
 
Would be mental imo for Willie to run both state man and IEP against constitution hill

Wasting two of his best bullets essentially as neither of them gets near the hill over 2 miles. IEP looked a proper 2m4f horse, even looked like he'd get 3 the way he powered through the line in the ballymore and punchestown

Willie wants Cheltenham winners and as long as he can jump IEP would be odds on in the turner's

The only way I can see him not going chasing is if he schools badly

The arkle/turner's discussion is interesting as there aren't really any 2m4f novice grade 1s before cheltenham for Willie. The drinmore is too early for his best ones usually unless he gets one out earlier than normal.

IEP would very likely start over 2 miles, then probably run against facile vega and marine nationale at Xmas assuming the ground is soft enough for Willie to start running his in november/early December

I suppose he could run him at limerick over 2m4f, but the ground can be desperate there at Xmas, then the flogas at DRF if Willie wanted to split him and facile vega up.

But is that or running in the 2m grade 1s at Xmas and DRF more likely?

If he wins both hed definitely go Arkle wouldn't he
 
The good thing with State Man is that he's certain to go CH again regardless of what The Hill does. Can't say that about IEP or Marine Nationale. If The Hill goes chasing or doesn't make the festival/falters in the CH then the 8/1 about SM will look very nice indeed.
 
Agree with Sax that IEP didn't look a Champion Hurdler at Punchestown. Marine Nationale though screams 2 miler all day long be it in the CH or Arkle.
 
Interesting views here. Some of willies post race comments are becoming a little off the cuff and strange. Now taking them with a larger pinch of salt than Patrick’s
who knows?
where are the TWAR markets?
 
Guinness Village said:
Interesting views here. Some of willies post race comments are becoming a little off the cuff and strange. Now taking them with a larger pinch of salt than Patrick’s
who knows?
where are the TWAR markets?
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No sign of hills putting up a TWAR and as far as i can see it's just skybet doing so.
 
This year’s ballymore will be known as the festival maker
IEP churdle, turners, arkle
gaelic warrior BANC, stayers, turners
champ kiely, BANC, turners
good land, turners, BANC
we’ll have a couple of winners out of that lot
 
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Istabraq said:
Has to be a Kim Muir plot surely ?
Likely to get done by the classier Irish and I would hope Pipe has more sense than Hendo did with Mister Coffee, accept that and take the easier option, Pipe has OK record in Kim Muir…
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You may be right Istabraq but I don't think it's going to be as simple as that.

GERICAULT ROQUE has 3 basic options at the Festival - and they are all viable in my view.

1. The Kim Muir as you point out.
2. The Ultima where he finished second to Corach Rambler last year - beaten less than 3l in receipt of 2lbs.
3. The National Hunt Chase.

Gericault will be 8 next year and the Pipes also like a tilt at the Grand National.

Four of the last 8 winners have been eight and the others have been 9 (3) and 7 (1).

Gericault Roque's last 3 chase runs have been in the Warwick Classic over 3m 5f, the Ultima (3m 1f) and the Hennessy (3m 2f).

So Pipe obviously views him as a candidate for the big staying handicaps.

But IF they target the Grand National then Gericault's current handicap mark of 139 will not get him in the race.

142 scraped in at number 40 this year and in the four previous runnings the bottom weight was rated 143, 145 , 142 and 142.

So to guarantee a run at Aintree they're going to have to find a way to increase Gericault's mark by 4-6lbs by the time the entries close in mid February.

Such a mark would put him close to top weight in the Kim Muir which wouldn't be great - and it's a world away from Pipe D's 2 Kim Muir winners The Package (137) and Junior (134).

I know the Kim Muir weights have compressed since their glory days but it is surely part of the stable's DNA to go into these big handicaps with a well handicapped/lightly weight contender.

If I had to guess which race Gericault would contest at the Festival next March I'd probably play it safe and say the Ultima.

But he'd clearly be a leading contender in the Kim Muir off his current mark.

And in what may be a less than vintage year for the NHC imo Gericauld could be a player - I'd certainly fancy him to put away current favourite Salvador Ziggy at any rate.

Of course, all this pre-supposes the horse has fully recovered from whatever has kept him off the track since his run at Newbury last November.

Probably worth keeping an eye on entries come October/November time.
 
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nortonscoin200
Can’t argue with any of that.
I think they can target a big early season chase, if he wins and gets a 7/8lb uplift they have plenty of time to massage it down a couple pf pound to get a crack at the Kim Muir, 144/145 would give them a lovely National weight.
The curve ball is if they think he’s a 155 horse in which case they can win a Hennessy, and another big pot, and a NH Chase and still be handicapped to win a National.

If it was me I wouldn’t ruin a great chance in a National or an even better chance for a Kim Muir by getting greedy early season…
 
I think if they are keeping their options open between Cheltenham and Aintree, then he'll start in a Pertemps Qualifier as a prep for The Hennessy, then a handicap mark check to see if they have what they need, and then either the Warwick Classic Chase before Cheltenham (NH Chase 150ish, Ultima the 140's, or Kim Muir if less), or a prep somewhere in late Feb/early March, probably Kempton, before heading to Aintree.

The alternative campaign if they are campaigning just for Aintree would be an intermediate or staying hurdle as a prep for The Beecher Chase, The Warwick Classic Chase, The Kempton Ladbroke Trophy, and The Grand National.

Despite looking very obvious for a significant campaign, I think you have to be cautious with him for four reasons though:
  1. He might not come back at all.
  2. He might not come back the same horse
  3. If he retains his ability and he gets a suitable mark by January, they may choose to bypass Cheltenham for the Grand National. I think there is less time between Cheltenham and Aintree this season too.
  4. David Pipe isn't his Dad, and couldn't hit a fifty foot target from five feet away.
 
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The gap between Cheltenham and Aintree will be exactly the same as this year. So Festival form will be very relevant when it comes to the National.
 
Spectre said:
I think if they are keeping their options open between Cheltenham and Aintree, then he'll start in a Pertemps Qualifier as a prep for The Hennessy, then a handicap mark check to see if they have what they need, and then either the Warwick Classic Chase before Cheltenham (NH Chase 150ish, Ultima the 140's, or Kim Muir if less), or a prep somewhere in late Feb/early March, probably Kempton, before heading to Aintree.
]
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Any February commitment has to depend on when the National weights launch is, last year I’m sure they moved it back, it certainly came after the Haydock trial which is a nonsense.
Target a mark of sub 145 by weights get announced then all options are open to them…
 
Love it.
howa out a
discussion for the garlic warrior? BANC or stayers?
giid bough for either?
I’ll put my opinions down and then duck for cover:GB_bonesrock::fatigue:
 
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