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FWIW - yes
A little bit wary that someone in info chain is putting people away but with missed engagements I'll be ducking both
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Cheltenham 2017 Antepost Bets
- Thread starter mayo
- Start date
FWIW - yes
A little bit wary that someone in info chain is putting people away but with missed engagements I'll be ducking both
Leman14
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Until NRNB comes in, I'm staying well-clear of Faugheen, AP, VVM etc...
100/1 (ish) is a decent accumulator for small stakes.
100/1 (ish) is a decent accumulator for small stakes.
Faugheen_Machine
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jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
I won't be putting any money down on either AP or Faugheen, (or VVM as she is so intertwined with those 2) until their wellbeing becomes clearer but I'm slightly less worried about Annie Power than Faugheen right now. It's been a similar story to the last 2 seasons for Annie. I think because in those 2 previous seasons despite being one of the yards most high profile horses - she was expected to go down the Mares hurdle so her absent wasn't so high profile or disconcerting. If the vibes are still bad or more so that we haven't heard anything of her approaching the end of February then i'll be getting worried.
The Final Furlong raised an interesting point in the situation of Faugheen (suspensory issue, kept missing targets, first run back at Irish Champion) mirroring Hurricane Fly's where they just couldn't get him right all season.
I've got quite a few combinations covered - after the festival I will do some in depth querying in to my ante-post combinations compared to SP's and so on and see whether 'predicting/getting lucky' with the targets has worked.
I don't mind having them because I would HATE on the day to only get just better 2/1 the pair, when they've been 20/1 ... all risk and reward but I think it'll be really interesting. (I think even if I made a loss I'd still do it next year haha)
jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
I know what you mean and have been tempted. I've got 1 combination covered from a few months back but that's it. The only one I am tempted in is Faugheen CH Annie Mares which if they both get there looks the most likely races - a quick look shows just under 15/1 double best price.
With the doubts that remain on both I think i'd rather hold back. It would be one thing to have doubts on one but for them both to be troubling at home is too risky for me now. I'd rather up the double to a 5 point bet and get shorter odds when things have become clearer.
I'm sure i'll regret this come the Tuesday if they do line up though!!
With the doubts that remain on both I think i'd rather hold back. It would be one thing to have doubts on one but for them both to be troubling at home is too risky for me now. I'd rather up the double to a 5 point bet and get shorter odds when things have become clearer.
I'm sure i'll regret this come the Tuesday if they do line up though!!
Moderately interesting special on Sky ... 11/4 for Douvan and Thistlecrack to win by a combined 10 lengths at 11/4. The double on them to win is best priced 2/1.
I'm almost tempted... Ruby does tend to drive them out until the final few strides and Fox Norton who is the clear 2nd fav in the race has 10.75L to make up himself. I think we could see a spectacular CC performance.
If Thistlecrack is 'eased down' like he was for the KG he'd have at least 4L to play with, and they could be WELL strung out in this race this year... if Thistlecrack decides he isn't going to take a lead.
Not had a bet but just one of the more 'interesting' specials I think
I'm almost tempted... Ruby does tend to drive them out until the final few strides and Fox Norton who is the clear 2nd fav in the race has 10.75L to make up himself. I think we could see a spectacular CC performance.
If Thistlecrack is 'eased down' like he was for the KG he'd have at least 4L to play with, and they could be WELL strung out in this race this year... if Thistlecrack decides he isn't going to take a lead.
Not had a bet but just one of the more 'interesting' specials I think
jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Personally i'd be hoping to see Douvan beat the CC field by 10 lengths so on that basis it looks a great bet!
I get the feeling Ruby and the yard will be keen to put down a marker at this festival and want to get Douvan added into the great performances at the festival history books (not in terms of depth or competition but in terms of time, winning distance and sheer superiority). A 5-6 length beating in this field just won't cut it. With the hyperbole of Thistlecrack and what I hope Altior the day before I think they'll be wanting to put on a show.
I'd be surprised if the bet comes down to Thistlecrack but if it did i'm sure you'd only need a length or two max to make up the 10 lengths.
edit: missed the part where you mentioned the to win double at 2/1. So at 2.75/1 it's not massively bigger (I thought the win double would be shorter) so maybe not 'great' like I said but I still think that distance will be beat if they win so eeks out a bit more value...
I get the feeling Ruby and the yard will be keen to put down a marker at this festival and want to get Douvan added into the great performances at the festival history books (not in terms of depth or competition but in terms of time, winning distance and sheer superiority). A 5-6 length beating in this field just won't cut it. With the hyperbole of Thistlecrack and what I hope Altior the day before I think they'll be wanting to put on a show.
I'd be surprised if the bet comes down to Thistlecrack but if it did i'm sure you'd only need a length or two max to make up the 10 lengths.
edit: missed the part where you mentioned the to win double at 2/1. So at 2.75/1 it's not massively bigger (I thought the win double would be shorter) so maybe not 'great' like I said but I still think that distance will be beat if they win so eeks out a bit more value...
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billymag
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Not sure that would be a great bet if Don Cossack ran, these prices on the win market for both horses are priced up as if they were NRNB which they arent. Thistlecrack has a prep to go as well and possibly so has Douvan, if your thinking about backing these prices at this stage I really think you need to factor that into your calculations. I think Thistlecracks KG win was a good performance and for a Novice it was exceptional, but why consider backing him now when theres 10 weeks to go and he could get injured and youll still get that price or near to it on the day, these specials will still be there and at least you know the horse is going to run. At this stage I consider the even money on Thistlecrack the worst price of the antepost markets, if it was NRNB i could understand it a bit more. If he gets to the GC every time he comes to a ditch you are going to have to pray he gets to the other side. I hear a lot of talk of machine and that hes the best horse since ..... he simply isnt and needs to go and prove he is. Im only talking from a price point of view hear and he could well end up the highest rated horse in training but even money is a terrible price at this stage. Id wait till after he has at least finished his prep. Best of luck though guys, its all about opinions.
As I said, I haven't had the bet. I just thought it was interesting. I'm going to play a bit of devils advocate here billy, as of course, as you rightly pointed out ... it is all about opinions 
I think it is harsh to say "he simply isn't" and needs to prove it. Ratings are given 'officially' by a fella, with an opinion and a set of rules that are not (and can't be scientific). Best system we have of course, but ultimately, you can't define who is the best or who has proven or achieved what.
You can say he isn't rated as highly as other horses, which is true, but Phil Smith has said himself that he COULDN'T give the horse a higher rating than Coneygree's GC yet... but he only CAN'T because of his own set of rules. He "hasn't been given the chance" which is a quote from Phil Smith on meet the handicapper after the King George on ATR.
I'd also dispute Thistlecrack being the worst price of the festival. He won the King George, eased down. That is a pretty good barometer of his ability and we know his target. ANY horse could get injured, fall or unseat, (including the horses behind hm in the market, DC,NR,Djak etc) The chance of injury and not turning up could be applied to every horse so really we shouldn't bet on any horse ante post. I don't think Don Cossack at 10 or 12 is a better bet than Thistlecrack at even at this stage. He hasn't had a run since, might not be as good as he was, and even if he was that might not be good enough... looking at Cue Card last year I would say he has very closely tied level of form with DC, and on this years form Thistlecrack is a good deal better than CC.
Could flip it on its head too and say evens might look amazing if DC doesn't turn up, NR gets injured, Djakadam goes for the Ryanair and so on.
Also, when he was jumping those open ditches, my heart was in my mouth, and if I didn't get that thrill, and didn't seek it, then I would feel I am missing the point of national hunt racing? This might divide opinion too, but I'd sooner back Thistlecrack at even than Douvan at 1/3. I'd say Douvan is a worse bet, at this stage, than Thistlecrack is.
I think it is harsh to say "he simply isn't" and needs to prove it. Ratings are given 'officially' by a fella, with an opinion and a set of rules that are not (and can't be scientific). Best system we have of course, but ultimately, you can't define who is the best or who has proven or achieved what.
You can say he isn't rated as highly as other horses, which is true, but Phil Smith has said himself that he COULDN'T give the horse a higher rating than Coneygree's GC yet... but he only CAN'T because of his own set of rules. He "hasn't been given the chance" which is a quote from Phil Smith on meet the handicapper after the King George on ATR.
I'd also dispute Thistlecrack being the worst price of the festival. He won the King George, eased down. That is a pretty good barometer of his ability and we know his target. ANY horse could get injured, fall or unseat, (including the horses behind hm in the market, DC,NR,Djak etc) The chance of injury and not turning up could be applied to every horse so really we shouldn't bet on any horse ante post. I don't think Don Cossack at 10 or 12 is a better bet than Thistlecrack at even at this stage. He hasn't had a run since, might not be as good as he was, and even if he was that might not be good enough... looking at Cue Card last year I would say he has very closely tied level of form with DC, and on this years form Thistlecrack is a good deal better than CC.
Could flip it on its head too and say evens might look amazing if DC doesn't turn up, NR gets injured, Djakadam goes for the Ryanair and so on.
Also, when he was jumping those open ditches, my heart was in my mouth, and if I didn't get that thrill, and didn't seek it, then I would feel I am missing the point of national hunt racing? This might divide opinion too, but I'd sooner back Thistlecrack at even than Douvan at 1/3. I'd say Douvan is a worse bet, at this stage, than Thistlecrack is.
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Brital
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Kev,
This made me chuckle:
I've got quite a few combinations covered - after the festival I will do some in depth querying in to my ante-post combinations compared to SP's and so on and see whether 'predicting/getting lucky' with the targets has worked.
I don't mind having them because I would HATE on the day to only get just better 2/1 the pair, when they've been 20/1 ... all risk and reward but I think it'll be really interesting. (I think even if I made a loss I'd still do it next year haha).
As I remember saying something similar to my mate after last years festival. After analysing my bets I decided I wouldn't do any ante post bets until NRNB.
And yet if I look at my book today I think I've already got more!
A fool and his money....
This made me chuckle:
I've got quite a few combinations covered - after the festival I will do some in depth querying in to my ante-post combinations compared to SP's and so on and see whether 'predicting/getting lucky' with the targets has worked.
I don't mind having them because I would HATE on the day to only get just better 2/1 the pair, when they've been 20/1 ... all risk and reward but I think it'll be really interesting. (I think even if I made a loss I'd still do it next year haha).
As I remember saying something similar to my mate after last years festival. After analysing my bets I decided I wouldn't do any ante post bets until NRNB.
And yet if I look at my book today I think I've already got more!
A fool and his money....
Haha, I think I lost over 50 pts last year with Faugheen's injury... (with Annie Power getting re-routed)... I do think I've been 'more sensible' this year, as no one horse could affect me that much .... but I your last sentance rings true haha
billymag
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Yeah but kev with all the associated risk involved with Thistlecrack (without the protection of NRNB) evens is a terrible price, now im right here coz i say im right lol. Good luck pal
p.s. i agree about ratings being opinion and im really careful to try and treat some ratings with absolute caution, like RPRs who tend be able to extrapolate the performance of a horse and although useful i find quite dangerous. Simon Rowlands who writes for the Irish Field on a Friday night i find absolutely fantastic and he uses the times the horses have run to and applies a very creditable science to the results. Im sure most of you have seen it, but he doesnt just look at the time from A to B but how the sections of the race were run, to give a much more detailed picture of what happened in the race, our eyes simply cant get this information from watching. This is nothing new and people have been doing this for a longtime, in fact in the US since the 1970's, i think i read. I would urge people to give him a go, he is absolutely first class (in my opinion) lol.
p.s. i agree about ratings being opinion and im really careful to try and treat some ratings with absolute caution, like RPRs who tend be able to extrapolate the performance of a horse and although useful i find quite dangerous. Simon Rowlands who writes for the Irish Field on a Friday night i find absolutely fantastic and he uses the times the horses have run to and applies a very creditable science to the results. Im sure most of you have seen it, but he doesnt just look at the time from A to B but how the sections of the race were run, to give a much more detailed picture of what happened in the race, our eyes simply cant get this information from watching. This is nothing new and people have been doing this for a longtime, in fact in the US since the 1970's, i think i read. I would urge people to give him a go, he is absolutely first class (in my opinion) lol.
billymag
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Just on Thistlecracks King George, i watched the race in a pub where people were watching football on another TV and as such the commentary for the racing was turned down. When I saw Thistlecrack win my immediate thought was that Cue Card hadnt run his race and all Thistlecrack had done was beat a few 160ish horses by 5 lengths or so, a good performance but not earth shattering (and for a novice its was a brilliant performance). I was little surprised when i watched the replay later on with the sound up to hear the reaction of TV land in meltdown about the run. There was a school of thought that Thistlecrack had broken Cue Card when he tried to serve it up to him. If this is the case get your mortgage on Might Bite for the RSA coz he ran every section of his Feltham faster than Thistlecrack, so if Thistlecracks run was that good on the day then this lad is also unbelievable (I accept that Might bite was carrying 3lbs less and this needs to factored into the calculations). It kind of leads me to assume that both are decent and have run very well without deserving Channel 4 to go into meltdown, this is surely the "recency bias" in full swing. If Don Cossack had come over and ran instead of Thistelcrack and won in the same manner, would people be thinking the same about him, even though he is the current GC winner, in fact id be surprised if he would be quite as short in the betting. My main worry about Thistlecrack would be his jumping, in the GC he will encounter his biggest chase field he has come up against. His jumping is exuberant and spectacular, but its very chancy and to my eye he has got away with a few so far, especially at the ditches. Its great to watch and i cant wait to see him run in the Gold Cup and for all my crabbing of the price i want him to win and destroy the field in the manner of a superstar, but i think there is a real danger he is going to make too many mistakes and end up out the race or on the deck. The other jockeys arent going to let him have an easy ride like he has enjoyed so far, in small chase fields and that would be my biggest worry if i was taking a short price on the day. Just praying that he gets there so we can see how good he is.
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Brital
Fat Jockey Patron
BM,
That's an interesting observation re watching it without all the C4 hype. However the most persuasive argument that we'd seen a truly special horse was Paddy Brennan's reaction when interviewed after the race. He looked a beaten man, and gave the impression CC had no chance against TC.
I do agree about the jumping, it's exhilarating but risky.
It's a binary bet in my opinion, if he stays upright, he wins. It's how you price up that possibility that determines whether he's value or not.
I think at least one bookmaker will go evens on the day and he'll carry my money.
That's an interesting observation re watching it without all the C4 hype. However the most persuasive argument that we'd seen a truly special horse was Paddy Brennan's reaction when interviewed after the race. He looked a beaten man, and gave the impression CC had no chance against TC.
I do agree about the jumping, it's exhilarating but risky.
It's a binary bet in my opinion, if he stays upright, he wins. It's how you price up that possibility that determines whether he's value or not.
I think at least one bookmaker will go evens on the day and he'll carry my money.
jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Some great points made by all on here. My two cents:
I definitely agree that Channel 4 overdid the hype but it's not the first time they have done so. It's in their interest to raise the perception of how great performances are and that viweres have witnessed something special. Especially I think being there last major day of racing - they wanted to go out on a high and with a big performance.
I don't actually pay much attention to Phil Smith and what the handicapper thinks. (perhaps I should?!) Ever since he's been messing with the national weights I have kind of disregarded his opinion. Big fan of Simon Rowlands though. I know nothing on the side of sectionals but followed him on twitter at the start of the season and really enjoy his analysis. he's done some good pieces on Altior this year too.
On novice races being run quicker than their open counterparts - It may have been here so I apologies if it was but i'm sure I read/heard recently that it's often because it's often less easy to settle novices so they often go a quicker pace where as older horses are able to settle easier. I don't think I've done the reasoning justice from that little snippet and probably missed out the key parts but it made sense when I saw it. I'll try and find it again...
Also I agree on Brital - Brennans reaction after that race was really insightful and a big indicator on just how superior he sees Thistlecrack is to Cue Card now. Up until that point Paddy had been very bullish on the horse anytime he was mentioned.
In terms of risk and the leading players in the Gold Cup here is the risk for each of the top 6 in the betting for me or what I perceive the general consensus is:
Thistlecrack - a novice, will his jumping hold up / fall
Native River - few doubts actually - perhaps whether he has the class and pace for the race?
Don Cossack - will he run / be as good after the layoff and injury
Coneygree - will he run / no prep run before the race now / fragile
Djakadam - below bar in the lexus / failed to win last 2 GC's / ryanair bound?
Cue Card - 11yo / put in his place in the King George / ryanair bound?
The whole field has doubts/concerns throughout and for me Thistlecrack actually has the least amount of doubts or the least to worry doubts. And in terms of the potential to fall:
Don Cossack (RSA), Djakadam (Twice - JLT, Cotswold), Cue Card (Gold Cup) (and to a lesser extent Native River over hurdles) have all fallen in a festival chase/over the course.
On a similar line to watching races without commentary - take away the fact Thistlecrack is a novice and watch back his 4 runs over fences this season as if he was any second season chaser with the Gold Cup as his aim - would there be such concern?
The open ditches at Cheltenham did raise alarm on his second run but for me he's been almost flawless outside of that. Even Cue Card a horse more experienced than most makes mistakes this season. His Betfair win in the early stages of the race had mistakes and he wasn't jumping great.
Thistlecrack has had 4 runs already and will have had 5 runs by the time he lines up come March if as expected he runs on Trials Day. On Djakadams first run in the Gold Cup in 2015 he had had the exact same amount of runs with the Gold Cup being his 6th run over fences. Now you could say he had those 5 runs spanning over 2 seasons so plenty more practice/schooling etc but Thistlecrack was expected to go chasing last year and had schooled a fair bit but they deciding to hold back over hurdles one more year. The only argument I think you could say would be that Djakadam took in the Hennessy and Thyestes - 19 and 17 runner fields so there were no concerns that a big field in the GC could be a question mark but I don't see this seasons Gold Cup as a big field (9-10 runners MAX imo). And obviously his (Djakadams) price wasn't evens but my point is his lack of experience wasn't a question mark leading up to the race, it wasn't even thought of as a hinderence.
Thistlecrack has won the best trial for the race in open company. Will I still be nervous watching the horse at every fence through the race in March - absolutely! BUT fast forward say a year and if TC has won the 2016 Gold Cup, won 3-4 more prep races and lines up in the Gold Cup 2018. I'd be just as nervous as I think as for me that's the nature of the horse - boldness and exuberance in abundance. A bigger field size, more experience etc won't chance that that much I don't think.
billy - what price would you make the horse right now? I'm not trying to single you out or jump on your opinion by the way - I love the debate and different reactions on here. No doubt being slightly cautious and not being caught in the hype is the best way to be and I'm sure and know slightly from past experience that it will save/win you more money in the long run.
I definitely agree that Channel 4 overdid the hype but it's not the first time they have done so. It's in their interest to raise the perception of how great performances are and that viweres have witnessed something special. Especially I think being there last major day of racing - they wanted to go out on a high and with a big performance.
I don't actually pay much attention to Phil Smith and what the handicapper thinks. (perhaps I should?!) Ever since he's been messing with the national weights I have kind of disregarded his opinion. Big fan of Simon Rowlands though. I know nothing on the side of sectionals but followed him on twitter at the start of the season and really enjoy his analysis. he's done some good pieces on Altior this year too.
On novice races being run quicker than their open counterparts - It may have been here so I apologies if it was but i'm sure I read/heard recently that it's often because it's often less easy to settle novices so they often go a quicker pace where as older horses are able to settle easier. I don't think I've done the reasoning justice from that little snippet and probably missed out the key parts but it made sense when I saw it. I'll try and find it again...
Also I agree on Brital - Brennans reaction after that race was really insightful and a big indicator on just how superior he sees Thistlecrack is to Cue Card now. Up until that point Paddy had been very bullish on the horse anytime he was mentioned.
In terms of risk and the leading players in the Gold Cup here is the risk for each of the top 6 in the betting for me or what I perceive the general consensus is:
Thistlecrack - a novice, will his jumping hold up / fall
Native River - few doubts actually - perhaps whether he has the class and pace for the race?
Don Cossack - will he run / be as good after the layoff and injury
Coneygree - will he run / no prep run before the race now / fragile
Djakadam - below bar in the lexus / failed to win last 2 GC's / ryanair bound?
Cue Card - 11yo / put in his place in the King George / ryanair bound?
The whole field has doubts/concerns throughout and for me Thistlecrack actually has the least amount of doubts or the least to worry doubts. And in terms of the potential to fall:
Don Cossack (RSA), Djakadam (Twice - JLT, Cotswold), Cue Card (Gold Cup) (and to a lesser extent Native River over hurdles) have all fallen in a festival chase/over the course.
On a similar line to watching races without commentary - take away the fact Thistlecrack is a novice and watch back his 4 runs over fences this season as if he was any second season chaser with the Gold Cup as his aim - would there be such concern?
The open ditches at Cheltenham did raise alarm on his second run but for me he's been almost flawless outside of that. Even Cue Card a horse more experienced than most makes mistakes this season. His Betfair win in the early stages of the race had mistakes and he wasn't jumping great.
Thistlecrack has had 4 runs already and will have had 5 runs by the time he lines up come March if as expected he runs on Trials Day. On Djakadams first run in the Gold Cup in 2015 he had had the exact same amount of runs with the Gold Cup being his 6th run over fences. Now you could say he had those 5 runs spanning over 2 seasons so plenty more practice/schooling etc but Thistlecrack was expected to go chasing last year and had schooled a fair bit but they deciding to hold back over hurdles one more year. The only argument I think you could say would be that Djakadam took in the Hennessy and Thyestes - 19 and 17 runner fields so there were no concerns that a big field in the GC could be a question mark but I don't see this seasons Gold Cup as a big field (9-10 runners MAX imo). And obviously his (Djakadams) price wasn't evens but my point is his lack of experience wasn't a question mark leading up to the race, it wasn't even thought of as a hinderence.
Thistlecrack has won the best trial for the race in open company. Will I still be nervous watching the horse at every fence through the race in March - absolutely! BUT fast forward say a year and if TC has won the 2016 Gold Cup, won 3-4 more prep races and lines up in the Gold Cup 2018. I'd be just as nervous as I think as for me that's the nature of the horse - boldness and exuberance in abundance. A bigger field size, more experience etc won't chance that that much I don't think.
billy - what price would you make the horse right now? I'm not trying to single you out or jump on your opinion by the way - I love the debate and different reactions on here. No doubt being slightly cautious and not being caught in the hype is the best way to be and I'm sure and know slightly from past experience that it will save/win you more money in the long run.
Faugheen_Machine
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It wasn't just Channel 4 that were waxing lyrical about Thistlecrack. The RUK team at Kempton were equally blown away by the performance.
I can't see how Thistlecrack gets beaten but I wouldn't even think about taking 5/4 now when he'll be Evens, if not bigger, on the day.
I can't see how Thistlecrack gets beaten but I wouldn't even think about taking 5/4 now when he'll be Evens, if not bigger, on the day.
billymag
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Love all the debate also, and im not really an argumentative person just have a strong view on Thistlecrack so just sharing it and love the healthy debate on here.
With regards the price i think its worth having a little think about will Thistlecrack see out the trip in a Gold Cup, its a question that he needs to answer, I absolutely cant have that coz a horse has the stamina for a World Hurdle, that he will automatically have the stamina for a GC. As much as his jumping is spectacular to watch it might be taking too much out of him as well. So for me he has to prove that he stays every inch of the 3mile 2f Chase course, and until he does that has to be a big question he needs to answer.
With there being no NRNB and the fact that he is likely to take in a prep I would want 5/2 to back the horse now and on the day if everything had gone well id want 5/4 (which im not sure will be available). If Don Cossack has a prep and looks the same horse (which is a big ask) then id want 2/1 on the day for Thistlecrack. I really like Native River and the 8/1 EW looks reasonable, although not much point in taking this price before he runs as he shouldnt shorten (baring Thistlecrack getting injured) and by then a firm or two might of gone NRNB.
Just on the times of novices against open company, good point about novices running fast early on and there are loads of examples of horses doing this. Simon Rowlands is excellent at sorting all the sections out to show what the overall run means. Might Bite ran every section faster than Thistlecrack until he fell which is not that common and if you believe in the power of Sectional timings youd have Might bite pretty high up on your list for the RSA (assuming he is non the worse for what looked a heavy looking fall)
With regards the price i think its worth having a little think about will Thistlecrack see out the trip in a Gold Cup, its a question that he needs to answer, I absolutely cant have that coz a horse has the stamina for a World Hurdle, that he will automatically have the stamina for a GC. As much as his jumping is spectacular to watch it might be taking too much out of him as well. So for me he has to prove that he stays every inch of the 3mile 2f Chase course, and until he does that has to be a big question he needs to answer.
With there being no NRNB and the fact that he is likely to take in a prep I would want 5/2 to back the horse now and on the day if everything had gone well id want 5/4 (which im not sure will be available). If Don Cossack has a prep and looks the same horse (which is a big ask) then id want 2/1 on the day for Thistlecrack. I really like Native River and the 8/1 EW looks reasonable, although not much point in taking this price before he runs as he shouldnt shorten (baring Thistlecrack getting injured) and by then a firm or two might of gone NRNB.
Just on the times of novices against open company, good point about novices running fast early on and there are loads of examples of horses doing this. Simon Rowlands is excellent at sorting all the sections out to show what the overall run means. Might Bite ran every section faster than Thistlecrack until he fell which is not that common and if you believe in the power of Sectional timings youd have Might bite pretty high up on your list for the RSA (assuming he is non the worse for what looked a heavy looking fall)